452
FXUS62 KFFC 071032
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
632 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms return to portions of
   North and western GA today.

 - Daily rain and thunderstorm chances stay in the forecast
   through most of this next week for all of North and Central
   Georgia.

 - While no widespread severe weather is expected, frequent
   lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds are possible
   with any storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A pattern shift is on tap for North and Central Georgia this week
beginning today (Sunday). Ridging aloft will dampen as shortwave
energy traverses the MS and TN Valley Regions. This coupled with
rising moisture levels will support the return of rain for portions
of northern and western Georgia mainly during the afternoon into the
evening -- though could be as early as mid-day. We are still
relatively dry at the midlevels, per latest soundings, but the
atmospheric column will gradually moisten through the day.
Additionally, instability will be on the order of 500 J/kg or less,
meaning any severe weather is unlikely. But some rumbles of thunder
are not out of the question. Though increasing cloud cover may
inhibit destabilization today.

A secondary push of midlevel energy will prompt additional chances
for showers and rumbles of thunder as early as Monday morning.
High PWs, weak steering flow and the slower nature of the midlevel
trough is likely to result in locally heavy rainfall during this
time for North GA. WPC has expanded the Slight Risk Area (Level 2
of 4) for excessive rainfall into North GA for Monday. Flooding
potential will need to be monitored closely. How this activity
evolves early in the day will determine if anything more develops
further south and east in the afternoon and evening.

Cloud cover will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s
across much of North Georgia today. Temperatures may reach the mid
to upper 80s across portions of Central Georgia where cloud cover is
not as prevalent. Similar temperatures are forecast for Monday
due to clouds and rain. While these temperatures may seem `low`,
dewpoints will be on the rise as moisture continues to stream back
into the area. So it`ll likely feeling increasingly muggy each
day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Southerly flow is back to start the extended periods with diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon.
Model guidance showing decent chances of storms across the CWA
through day 7 with the highest chances across western and northern
Georgia because of the Bermuda ridge sticking around. A very
moisture latent atmosphere remains with PWAT values expected in the
2" to 3" range each day. Cloud cover and rain chances keep
temperatures Tue and Wed in the low to mid 80s for most of the area
with temps a deg or two higher for Thu and Fri.  By Wednesday we
will be monitoring to see just how far south a weak front can make
it towards the CWA, which may elevate rain and t-storm chances
into northern Georgia before it stalls across central GA Thu.

By Day 6 the ECMWF and GFS begin to show very similar but different
solutions. Both are showing a tropical system beginning to develop
across the southern Gulf with the GFS allowing this system to deepen
and move NE making landfall near Tampa FL next Sun the 14th. The
ECMWF shows this same system developing across the southern Gulf
Thu/Fri, but it takes the low center westward and falling apart just
before it makes landfall along the east coast of Mexico next
weekend. One thing to keep in mind is the GFS has been very
aggressive this spring/early summer with this now being the 3rd or
4th tropical system it has shown. The biggest difference this time
is now the ECMWF is also showing a tropical system developing. With
all this being said its beginning to look like something will
develop by the end of next week, just dont have a lot of confidence
as to where it will go or just how strong it will become. Will be
definitely keeping a close eye on how the models want to handle this
over the next few model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions to start at all sites. SCT-BKN clouds above 15kft to
persist with a mid-level deck (3-5kft) developing around 14-15z. May
briefly go as low as 2.5kft but should be brief. Winds will pick up
from the SW at 4-7kts after 15z. Sct SHRA will spread across NW GA
more likely to impact RYY/FTY by around 16z persisting thru the
aftn. While the greatest chance for SHRA will be west/north of ATL,
a stray shower at the airfield is not out of the question late this
aftn. MVFR cigs (1.5-3kft) psbl mainly after 03z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Low confidence on shra occurrence/timing.
High confidence on remaining elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  69  80  67 /  10  30  70  60
Atlanta         83  70  79  68 /  40  40  70  60
Blairsville     81  64  76  64 /  30  50  80  40
Cartersville    82  69  79  68 /  60  50  70  60
Columbus        85  70  85  69 /  30  20  40  30
Gainesville     84  68  78  68 /  30  50  70  50
Macon           88  70  83  68 /  10  30  60  50
Rome            80  68  79  67 /  70  60  70  60
Peachtree City  83  69  80  68 /  40  40  70  50
Vidalia         91  72  87  71 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07