023
FXUS62 KFFC 111033
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
633 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Isolated damaging wind threat is possible late tonight and
   again on Wednesday as a decaying cluster of storms enters far
   north Georgia.

-  Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day this week
   posing a threat for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

-  Impactful heat is becoming increasingly likely as heat indices
   return to the mid 90s to low 100s by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The next two days are likely to see more activity than Monday as
the pattern begins to shift slightly. The quasi-zonal flow to our
north begins to change as pieces of energy start directing the
deepening of a trough off the Atlantic coast and the ridge pushes
slightly south and west momentarily. Northern Georgia will be
under the influence as the pattern shifts to more of a
northwesterly flow which will in turn bring elevated chances for
higher coverage of storms as well as the potential for some
organization. For today, the flow will be transitioning so storms
will have a bit more coverage today that yesterday but overall the
risks remain the same which are gusty winds (40-50mph) and
locally heavy rainfall. CAPE values at ~1500-2000 J/kg and PWATs
in the 1.6-2" range will support this. Otherwise, as we move into
tomorrow, while scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
possible in a typical summerlike pattern, we will be watching to
see if any organized complex is able to make it into far northern
Georgia. Several of the CAMs are indicating the possibility to see
a cluster of decaying storms pushing into northern Georgia late
tomorrow evening. Shear remains relatively weak during this time
frame and CAPE values remain in the 1500-2500 J/kg range so our
threats are unlikely to change a whole lot with gusty winds likely
with a damaging wind threat also likely in the strongest storms.

When it comes to temperatures the next two days, will see highs
get into the low to mid 90s across the area. Dewpoints were
lowered a tad to reflect the mixing that is likely to occur with
the high pressure still over central and southern Georgia. Thus
the maximum heat index values have been lowered as a result. Heat
indices top out between 100 and 105 the next two afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

By Thursday and the start of the long term period, mid-level ridging
will have situated itself over southern CONUS, with north and
central Georgia positioned on the eastern periphery of the dome of
high pressure. The sensible impacts will be dual-pronged: first,
increasingly more oppressive heat through the weekend as the ridge
stagnates; second, intrusion of moisture and passing disturbances
rounding the edge of the ridge will support isolated to scattered
convection each afternoon.

Afternoon highs will be in the 90s for all but the terrain of
northeast Georgia, and it is possible that portions of our far
southern and eastern zones may approach a 100 degree air temperature
by late week (!). As such, heat index values will surge well into
the triple digits. Heat Advisory criteria is likely to be met for at
least subsets of the southern and eastern portions of the area, and
conditions will need to be monitored for potential Extreme Heat
products assuming trends continue. Would not be surprised to see
forecast dewpoints come down as this heat event enters the purview
of the short term (perhaps appreciably) -- as afternoon mixing is
typically strong under mature ridging -- which would help temper
some of the more "extreme" heat index values in the forecast. Either
way, some of the hottest days of the year thus far appear to be in
our near future -- make next weekend`s plans with a high likelihood
of impactful heat in mind.

A caveat/question mark for the extent of potentially dangerous heat
lies in our continued afternoon storm chances. Should convection win
out over building subsidence and materialize, it would serve to
punctuate/truncate the full breadth of diurnal heating. Dirty ridge
setups are not uncommon in the summer, and some quasi-organization
of storms is possible depending on the strength of features
traversing upper flow. Will continue to monitor and carry 20-30%
PoPs each day for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

High level clouds will continue past sunrise with a cu field
developing ~15-16z at 3-4kft again today. Chance for TSRA from
~18-23z today. Light west winds will pick up into the afternoon
at 4-7kt across the area before decreasing again overnight.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  74  95  75 /  10  10  10   0
Atlanta         91  75  92  75 /  30  10  20  10
Blairsville     86  68  87  69 /  20  20  30  10
Cartersville    91  73  92  74 /  40  10  30  20
Columbus        93  76  94  76 /  40  10  30  10
Gainesville     91  74  92  74 /  20  10  10   0
Macon           93  74  94  75 /  30  10  20   0
Rome            91  72  92  73 /  40  10  30  20
Peachtree City  91  73  92  74 /  40  10  20  10
Vidalia         95  76  96  77 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Hernandez