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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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642 FXUS62 KFFC 261545 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1145 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...Midday Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 1140 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 It`s a hot one out there. Temperatures are running several degrees ahead of yesterday at this time and are definitely on track for widespread high temperatures in the upper 90s to over 100 this afternoon. Fortunately, dry dewpoints persist today and keep heat index values from getting too out of hand. Still, prepare for a very hot afternoon with a few daily record highs potentially at risk of falling. RW && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 423 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 At a glance: - Unseasonable heat continues - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return tonight through tomorrow Throughout the day today, the mid-levels will begin to transition away from northwesterly flow as a shortwave rounding the base of a broader mid-level trough -- currently lifting across the Great Lakes -- approaches from the northwest. With a weak lobe of high pressure lingering at the surface, our uncharacteristically dry airmass will remain in place for another day. Dewpoints this afternoon will once again drop into the mid-50s to lower-60s, between the 10th and 25th percentile per SPC`s Sounding Climatology, under the influence of impressive mixing. Highs this afternoon are expected to surge back into the upper-90s to lower triple digits this afternoon, supportive of dewpoint depressions of 35-40 degrees (!). This, combined with stout capping lingering at the top of our mixed layer (shown well on yesterday`s 26/00Z sounding), should be enough to continue to prevent meaningful rain chances this afternoon -- aside from an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity of the stalled front along our far southern tier. After multiple days without meaningful rainfall, fine fuels are bone dry (<5% moisture), so have opted to issue a Fire Danger Statement for areas along and east of a line extending from the Atlanta Metro to Macon. Use extreme caution if planning any outdoor burns. Late this evening, the aforementioned shortwave will breach the state line from the northwest, bringing with it a slug of moisture. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will initially be relegated to areas north and west of the Metro through daybreak Thursday, but will spread to the south and east through the day, increasing into the afternoon to blanket 30-40% chances. Forecast rainfall totals are far from impressive at this time, between a tenth and a half of an inch, but locally higher amounts are possible in areas that experience more convective rainfall. With more cloud cover in the forecast, highs will be the "coolest" we`ve felt in several days, in the upper-80s to lower-90s north of I-85 and the mid-90s elsewhere. This slight drop in temperatures will counteract the stark increase in moisture (dewpoints in the upper-60s to 70s Thursday afternoon vs. the 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday afternoon) such that heat index values remain in check. 96 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 423 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 On Thursday night, the axis of the upper level trough will have cleared Georgia to the east and will be moving towards the Atlantic coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will persist in portions of east and central Georgia, but are expected to diminish in the hours after sunset. Broad upper level ridging is expected to set up over the eastern CONUS in the wake of the trough on Friday, and persist into the weekend. A more typical summertime pattern is expected underneath this pattern, with diurnally-driven convection leading to thunderstorms each afternoon across the area. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and precipitable water values increasing to 1.8 to 2 inches will be sufficient to warrant scattered to numerous coverage across the area each day, with PoPs ranging from 40-65 percent across the area each afternoon. Aside from high temperatures in the 80s in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 90s on Friday afternoon. These highs will climb by a degree or two each day under the influence of the ridge. Furthermore, these highs, combined with the aforementioned dewpoints in the 70s, will contribute to heat index values in the triple digits across the majority of the forecast area through the weekend. Many locations, particularly in east-central Georgia, could see heat indices in excess of 105 which would warrant heat headlines each day. Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure system over southeast Canada will extend a weakening cold front into the Tennessee Valley region, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as it advances southward through the forecast area. While dewpoints may briefly drop into the 60s in north Georgia behind the frontal boundary on Monday and Monday night, it does not look like there will be substantial change in the airmass otherwise. Hot, humid conditions and diurnal thunderstorms will nonetheless persist through the end of the period. King && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions to continue for a majority of the pd. SCT-BKN cigs at 5-10kft to return late period, with MVFR likely by 13-14Z Thursday. Winds initially CALM to VRB will pick back up out of the W/SW at 5-8kts by 14-15Z. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence Thursday AM ceiling progression. High confidence all other elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 94 72 93 / 10 40 20 40 Atlanta 75 93 75 94 / 10 40 20 40 Blairsville 68 86 68 87 / 20 50 10 50 Cartersville 71 92 71 94 / 20 40 10 40 Columbus 75 94 74 96 / 20 50 20 40 Gainesville 74 91 74 91 / 10 50 10 40 Macon 73 96 73 96 / 10 50 20 40 Rome 73 93 73 95 / 30 40 10 40 Peachtree City 72 93 71 95 / 10 40 20 40 Vidalia 76 98 74 97 / 10 50 30 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...96