525
FXUS62 KFFC 051745
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026


...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Well above normal temperatures this weekend with heat index
   values in the triple digits. A Heat Advisory is in effect
   across most of north and central Georgia through this evening.

 - Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be around
   this weekend. A few storms may be severe, capable of producing
   damaging wind gusts.

 - Cooler and drier weather moves in early next week, with
   temperatures warming back to above normal by mid-week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Heat Concerns Continue:

A very warm and humid airmass for September standards will remain
over the area through the weekend. High temperatures today will
rise to the mid to upper 90s, with dewpoints in the 70s driving
heat index values into the 100-107 range. Given this, a Heat
Advisory has been issued for all of North and Central GA outside
the northern mountains. On Sunday, the mid-level ridge that has
been driving this pattern will start to kick west, but high temps
and heat index values will only be 1-3 degrees cooler than today.
So, the Heat Advisory may need to be extended through Sunday for
some areas. Please be sure to take precautions if you are out in
the heat this weekend!

Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Weekend:

The mid-level ridge that kept convection at bay for most of this
week will finally be shoved westward this weekend, courtesy of a
broad longwave trough over the East Coast. For today, we can
expect two areas/timeframes of thunderstorm potential. The first
would be typical scattered summertime pop-up afternoon showers
and storms across west-central GA, where moisture has pooled and
subsidence from the fleeting ridge is lower. The second area for
storms is across north/northeast GA (including portions of the
Atlanta metro) from the late afternoon to evening hours. This
corridor will have an increasingly unstable airmass with steeper
lapse rates as the ridge gets kicked out and a subtle shortwave
moves in from the north. Scattered strong to severe storms would
be possible, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts.
SPC has the aforementioned corridor of north/northeast GA in a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather.

On Sunday, convective activity will ramp up even more, as a
shortwave and associated frontal boundary start to move across the
area. This forcing, combined with the warm and humid airmass in
place out ahead of it, will support scattered to numerous
afternoon showers and storms, with generally higher coverage
across central GA. Several storms may be strong to severe, with
damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. The greatest risk for
severe storms will be across east-central GA, where SPC has a
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather. With the potential
for repeated rounds of storms and efficient rainfall rates, we`ll
also have to watch out for localized flash flooding, especially in
urban and poor-drainage areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 216 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Broad long wave trough over the east coast will see a weak
shortwave rotate through it that will bring some extra support for
thunderstorms along a stalled frontal boundary across parts of
north and central Georgia. Surface dewpoints will be in the 60s
and 70s allowing for decent instability to develop via surface
heating. Storms from this will still be ongoing at the beginning
of the long term on Sunday evening and continue into the early
overnight hours, especially in parts of central Georgia.

Monday will see a backdoor front continue to slide into the CWA.
There is some ensemble spread on just how quickly this front
slides into the area, which would have some impacts on what things
look like on Monday. The latest NBM mean is a bit cooler showing
highs in the mid 80s, but has a 10th percentile in the 70s across
eastern Georgia and a 90th approaching or exceeding 90 degrees.
Experience would tell me to lean towards the current mean that
came in a bit lower as the front likely will be moving in a bit
faster than most models have progged. Any PoPs will likely be
focused along the front, with best chances currently across east
central Georgia. Expect to see some potential changes in the PoPs
as confidence in the timing and location of the front grows.

For the rest of the long term through the end of next week,
models show the deep ridge over the middle of the country getting
pumped up by a deep trough/TPV over the west coast that tapping
directly into tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Marie.
Anticyclonic rossby wave break along the anticyclonic side of the
jet happens over the Midwest as the trough ejects northeastward on
Tuesday. This means the upper level ridge sets up over the south.
This is a lot of fancy meteorology talk to explain why the heat
will once again start building through the area into the end of
next week, with highs well into the 90s. One saving grace may be
that moisture takes a bit longer to return, keeping the heat
indices below triple digits until the very end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Scattered clouds developing across the area with isolated showers
and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the evening hours.
Storms should end a few hours after sunset with another round of
storms expected again Sun afternoon/evening. Winds will be mainly
out of the W-NW in the 4-8kt range with VRB gust to 30kt in and
around convective activity. VSBYs will be mainly VFR except MVFR
in and around any thunderstorms.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          99  73  96  70 /  20  30  40  60
Atlanta         98  76  96  74 /  30  30  20  40
Blairsville     91  68  88  65 /  20  10  20  30
Cartersville    98  73  96  72 /  10  20  10  20
Columbus        95  75  98  74 /  30  10  30  40
Gainesville     97  73  94  71 /  30  20  30  40
Macon           95  74  97  72 /   0  10  50  60
Rome            98  73  96  72 /  10  20  10  20
Peachtree City  97  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  30
Vidalia         95  76  97  72 /   0  10  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011>013-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...01