304
FXUS62 KFFC 101849
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
249 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...


 - Temps remain above normal through the weekend, with afternoon
   heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.

 - Higher rain and thunderstorm chances spread across the entire
   area from Friday into the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A mid-level ridge will continue to move off the southeast coast
through the day. The surface winds will be light and shift around to
the south and southwest through the afternoon along the periphery of
the retreating ridge. Temperatures will warm today into the upper
80s to low 90s over our area. With the transition to a southerly
flow off the Gulf, we will see an increase in dewpoints back up into
the low to mid 70s, which will push the afternoon heat index back up
to the triple digit range over the south and eastern in the short
term. It will also act to erode any residual low-level drier air and
aid in an expanding Cu field areawide today. However, we will see
only an isolate to scattered thunderstorm chance mostly south of a
line from Columbus to Macon today with more sparse developments to
the north through the afternoon where the mid-level drier air will
take more time to erode.

On Friday, a shortwave trough will being to dig south along the
southern Mississippi valley and continue to enhance the spread of
high precipitable water values ranging from 1.8-2.2 inches over the
area. Combined with daytime heating and decent CAPE, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms can be expected on Friday afternoon through
the early evening. Some of the heavier storms could produce higher
rainfall totals, particularly over the central and northern portions
of our CWA with a highlighted Marginal risk of excessive rainfall in
that area through end of the short term. That being said, outside of
a few storms with strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rainfall, the risk of severe weather is relatively low as we
progress into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

No major changes made to the extended periods. A Bermuda High
will linger off the eastern seaboard, which will continue to
spread southerly flow and low level moisture into the Southeast.
By the time the long term period picks up on Sat morning,
dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s and precipitable water
values will be between 1.75-2.2 inches across the majority of the
area. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will be advancing east-
northeast from the middle Mississippi River Valley region towards
the lower Midwest. As this shortwave progresses, a weakening
frontal boundary will be moving southward through central
Tennessee and approaching the north Georgia border. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected to continue through much of
north Georgia to the south of this front.


Warm, moist southerly flow will help high temperatures Saturday rise
into the upper 80s to low 90s in spite of increased cloud/precip
coverage. The combination of diurnal destabilization and the
boundary progressing further south will promote a further increase
in thunderstorm coverage across the area by late Saturday morning
through the evening hours. PoPs at this time are forecast to range
from 80-90% across north Georgia (closer to the frontal boundary)
and 50-80% over Central Georgia. Given the high PWATs, stronger
storms that develop will be efficient rainfall producers and could
lead to localized flooding concerns, most likely in areas to the
north of the Fall Line. Shear ahead of the front will become
negligible as the front continues to weaken. Considering this and
a nearly saturated atmospheric column, the threat for organized
severe weather will be low. However, with ample diurnal
instability, a few storms will be capable of becoming strong and
capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds.

Saturday night, the remnant boundary is anticipated to stall near
the I-85 corridor, with some showers expected to linger in the
vicinity. With lesser precipitation and cloud coverage on Sunday,
temperatures are expected to increase by a couple of degrees,
warming into the low to mid 90s in all but the far northeastern
mountains. With dewpoints remaining in the 70s, heat index values
will climb into the low to mid 100s in areas south of I-85 and in
the upper 90s in areas to the north in the peak heating hours.
Scattered afternoon pulse thunderstorms are expected on Sunday,
closer to the remnant boundary. There will be little change in the
airmass during the early parts of next week, with humid conditions
and above normal temperatures combining for heat indices exceeding
100 across the majority of the area Monday through Wednesday. In an
unstable airmass but in the absence of a surface forcing mechanism,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected each of
those afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR/Low-VFR conditions prevail with an expansive developing Cu
field this afternoon across the area. Expect remnant isolated
areas of MVFR to burn off through 20Z with the development of
isolated showers and thunderstorms mostly south of a line from
Columbus to Macon. A stray shower or storm is possible north, but
coverage will be limited. Surface winds to be light and variable
less than 6kts favoring the south. Expect patchy MVFR-LIFR cigs
and visibility restrictions down to 2SM to redevelop after
midnight, mainly over the central and southwestern counties.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium Confidence on tomorrow morning cigs/vis.
High Confidence on all other elements.

82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  94  71  90 /   0  30  40  80
Atlanta         74  93  73  89 /  10  40  50  90
Blairsville     65  88  66  82 /   0  20  50  90
Cartersville    71  93  71  88 /   0  30  50  90
Columbus        74  93  74  92 /  10  50  30  70
Gainesville     72  92  72  86 /   0  30  40  90
Macon           73  92  72  92 /  20  50  20  60
Rome            70  94  71  88 /   0  20  50  90
Peachtree City  71  92  71  90 /  10  50  50  80
Vidalia         74  92  74  93 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...82
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...82