946
FXUS62 KFFC 170709
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue, at least for the
    next 1-2 days.

  - An upper level low over the eastern Gulf will increase
    moisture across the area resulting in a return of showers and
    scattered thunderstorms by Friday afternoon through this
    weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

An unseasonably strong upper level ridge of high pressure will
continue to dominate the weather across north and central Georgia
today and tonight. As the ridge axis moves west towards the ArkLaTex
region, and upper level "easterly" wave/disturbance will cross
Florida and move over the Gulf Friday and Saturday. Moisture will
increase rather dramatically across the area during this time which
will help support mainly afternoon and evening showers/storms. At
this time, not seeing much to support any "severe" storms Friday but
will have to monitor initial convection potentially tapping into
higher DCAPE values - which could result in isolated microbursts as
storms generally move south across the area (given flow around upr
ridge).

Daytime temperatures today and tomorrow (Friday) will continue to
run about 5-8F degrees above normal and today should be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday (w/ less morning cloud-cover).

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Over the weekend through early next week, a closed mid-level low
will slide from the Florida Peninsula into the eastern Gulf. Warm
and moist air wrapping around the low from the Atlantic will pool
across the area, supporting scattered showers and storms each day.
High temperatures will remain in the 90s, combining with dewpoints
in the 70s to drive heat index values into the upper 90s to low 100s.

Confidence in the forecast starts to drop off by the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe, as model guidance has a large spread in the
potential synoptic setup. Some of the guidance keeps the cut off low
over the eastern Gulf, while other guidance has the low get absorbed
by troughing to the north and shifting out of the area with drier
and cooler air moving in with a wedge. There has been a slight trend
towards the latter solution, but confidence remains low in the
forecast for mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through remainder of
the night and throughout the day as E-NE flow continues across the
area. Winds will generally be light (< 10kts) with upr ridge to
our west still influencing much of the weather.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  69  96  70 /   0   0  20  30
Atlanta         92  72  96  73 /   0   0  20  20
Blairsville     88  66  89  65 /  20   0  30   0
Cartersville    94  70  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus        91  69  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     91  71  95  71 /   0   0  20  10
Macon           91  66  95  70 /   0   0   0  10
Rome            95  70  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
Peachtree City  91  68  95  70 /   0   0  10  20
Vidalia         91  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...DJN.83