813
FXUS62 KFFC 291858
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Key Messages:

  - Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over central
    Georgia this afternoon.

  - Tomorrow morning at least into the afternoon, showers are
    expected over central Georgia into the Atlanta metro area.

  - There remains low confidence in the northern extent of shower
    activity tomorrow.

Moisture levels over north Georgia and the Atlanta metro remains
below seasonal normals. The 12Z upper air sounding from FFC shows
precipitable water at 1.06 inches. This is below the 25th percentile
for 12Z on August 29. However, satellite imagery shows increasing
moisture to the south, which is filtering into northern and central
Georgia. Isolated to scattered light showers have continued through
the morning over central Georgia, and additional development has
begun there. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over central
Georgia. Shower activity is less likely over the Atlanta metro and
north, though the risk is not zero, and a few isolated showers
cannot be ruled out.

There remains dry layers aloft, as shown in the RAOB. RH down to 20%
are seen within the layer between 825 hPa and 700 hPa, while there
is an even drier layer at 600-250 hPa. This will inhibit vertical
development of shower activity, and act as a significant inhibitor
on convective development over north Georgia. These dry layers will
erode with the filtering in of the moisture from the south. Model
guidance shows that precipitable water values will increase to above
normal levels over southern portions of the Atlanta metro by
tomorrow morning. Confidence has remained relatively low on how far
north the moisture - and therefore shower activity - will make it.
Over central Georgia, confidence in the shower activity (as well as
the potential for isolated thunderstorms) tomorrow morning into the
afternoon is much higher.

CRS

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Key Messages:

 - Mostly dry conditions with isolated rain chances each day,
except for Wednesday as a system moves across the state.

 - Near to below normal temperatures through next week.

From Sunday through early next week, deep mid-level troughing
will remain parked over the Eastern US, resulting in persistent
low to mid-level NW flow across the state. Surface high pressure
beneath the Eastern US trough will keep a shallow NE flow
(similar to a wedge) over the area. Overall this setup will lead
to mostly cloudy and slightly cooler than normal conditions, with
enough atmospheric moisture (PWAT values 1-1.5") to support
isolated rain chances each day.

Around mid-week, a stout mid-level shortwave and associated
surface low will be dropping along the backside of the trough
across the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the system approaches the
area, low to mid-level flow will turn out of the south, bringing
in a surge of warm and moisture with PWAT values climbing up to
1.75-2". This moisture combined with large scale forcing from the
system will lead to scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Depending on the timing of this system, we could
even see some strong to marginally severe storms, though
confidence in threat is very low at this time. The cold front
associated with this system will rapidly push through behind it,
leading to the return of a dry and cool airmass through the end
of next week.

Culver

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

VFR conditions prevail thru 10Z, exc MCN becmg MVFR around 02Z, and
CSG where MVFR prevails thru pd. SCT/BKN cigs at 4-6kft, as Cu field
persists into the evening. VCSH CSG/MCN thru 02Z; 30% chance of TSRA
for CSG. Risk for TS at MCN is less than 30%, but there is still a
threat. -SHRA spread north after 04Z, and widespread -SHRA for all
terminals except AHN by 12Z tomorrow morning. Surface winds of up to
4-8 kts will be generally out of the E/SE, though some variation in
direction is likely.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence in wind, medium confidence all other elements.

CRS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  78  62  81 /  20  20  10  10
Atlanta         67  78  64  81 /  20  30  10  10
Blairsville     59  79  57  77 /   0  10   0  20
Cartersville    65  84  63  84 /  10  10   0  10
Columbus        68  79  66  83 /  50  50  10  20
Gainesville     64  80  62  81 /  10  10   0  10
Macon           68  76  65  81 /  50  60  10  10
Rome            62  85  61  85 /  10  10   0  10
Peachtree City  66  78  63  81 /  40  30  10  10
Vidalia         70  79  66  83 /  40  70  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRS
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...CRS