440
FXUS62 KFFC 180021
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
821 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms peaking during the
      afternoon continue. A few may be strong with gusty winds,
  localized heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

- Elevated, but not abnormal, apparent temperatures through the
      short term driven by moisture.

The western edge of the upper level ridge remains over the forecast
area through the short term period, keeping the near stationary
shortwave trapped just to our west. Vertically stacked SW flow will
continue to pump moisture into the area. Thunderstorm purgatory
continues with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Many in the cwa will wonder "will I get thunderstorms
today?" and given the pattern the answer remains a lukewarm "maybe".
Chances increase as you move north and west. So if you have outside
activities this afternoon, just be weather aware and "when thunder
roars go indoors".

Temperatures through the short term will be warm and oppressive
(this forecaster is already done with Summer). Apparent temperatures
will be in the 90s for all but the mountains of north Georgia, be
aware of the time spent outdoors and take some breaks. The silver
lining is any brief relief thunderstorms may provide, though clear
conditions after thunderstorms may make sfc conditions even more
oppressive with evaporation from the surface.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Key Messages:

    - Rising temps and heat indices as storm coverage lessens.

    - Localized storms could still create flooding concerns through
      the long term.

By Thursday, The surface to upper level ridge centered just off the
FL/GA coast is keeping GA in moist Southwesterly flow to begin the
extended periods. There is also a weakening frontal boundary moving
SE out of the Mid MS river valley and its expected to move into NW
GA around 15z-18z. As the front enters the state it continues to
weaken as it moves into the the high pressure ridge. This ridge is
expected to strengthen slowly through the weekend and into next week
becoming the dominate weather feature controlling the pattern over
the southeastern U.S. This ridge will also help to cap convective
activity through day 7 but in turn we will also see temps and heat
indices increasing too. Looking at 60% to 80% PoPs at the beginning
of the forecast slowly decreasing to 20% to 40% by day 7. Also, by
the time we get towards the end of the work week we`ll likely be
seeing triple digit heat indices for the first time this year as
temps rise into the mid 90s and dewpoints stay in the 70s. The
models don`t show any sign of relief and the only chance we have of
seeing a temporary reprieve will come in the form of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.

Continual SW flow out off the Gulf will fuel not just the humidity
but our diurnal pattern. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected
through the rest of the work week but by Saturday the Euro is
picking up on a bit of a pattern change. As the surface ridge
strengthens the upper level ridge moves a bit further north into the
Mid Atlantic states putting us in east upper level flow. This will
bring in Atlantic moisture instead of Gulf moisture which should be
a little less moisture latent.

One of the big concerns we have this week will be flooding. With
dewpoints this high, our afternoon storms are likely to be efficient
rain makers. Precipitable water values (PWs) remain in the 1.5" to
2.5" range through the periods. If storms line up over the same area
day after day, we could see some isolated flash flooding or some
rivers that go to flood stage.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 815 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR being observed at most sites after SHRA/TSRA moved through.
Conditions stay primarily VFR overnight, with a period of SCT-BKN MVFR
or IFR CIGs (007-020) possible from around 11-13Z Wed AM. Another
round of PROB30 TSRA Wed afternoon. Winds generally W to SW
through the period at 5-10kts, with gusts to 18-20kts during Wed
afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on CIGs Wed AM. High for other elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  71  90 /  20  50  30  30
Atlanta         72  88  72  90 /  20  50  20  40
Blairsville     65  83  65  83 /  30  60  60  70
Cartersville    70  88  69  89 /  20  50  50  50
Columbus        72  90  72  92 /  20  50  10  30
Gainesville     71  87  70  88 /  20  60  40  50
Macon           72  91  72  92 /  10  50  10  20
Rome            70  87  70  87 /  20  60  50  60
Peachtree City  70  89  71  90 /  30  50  20  40
Vidalia         74  93  74  94 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Culver