327
FXUS62 KFFC 171857
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms peaking during the
      afternoon continue. A few may be strong with gusty winds,
  localized heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

- Elevated, but not abnormal, apparent temperatures through the
      short term driven by moisture.

The western edge of the upper level ridge remains over the forecast
area through the short term period, keeping the near stationary
shortwave trapped just to our west. Vertically stacked SW flow will
continue to pump moisture into the area. Thunderstorm purgatory
continues with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Many in the cwa will wonder "will I get thunderstorms
today?" and given the pattern the answer remains a lukewarm "maybe".
Chances increase as you move north and west. So if you have outside
activities this afternoon, just be weather aware and "when thunder
roars go indoors".

Temperatures through the short term will be warm and oppressive
(this forecaster is already done with Summer). Apparent temperatures
will be in the 90s for all but the mountains of north Georgia, be
aware of the time spent outdoors and take some breaks. The silver
lining is any brief relief thunderstorms may provide, though clear
conditions after thunderstorms may make sfc conditions even more
oppressive with evaporation from the surface.


SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Key Messages:

    - Rising temps and heat indices as storm coverage lessens.

    - Localized storms could still create flooding concerns through
      the long term.

By Thursday, The surface to upper level ridge centered just off the
FL/GA coast is keeping GA in moist Southwesterly flow to begin the
extended periods. There is also a weakening frontal boundary moving
SE out of the Mid MS river valley and its expected to move into NW
GA around 15z-18z. As the front enters the state it continues to
weaken as it moves into the the high pressure ridge. This ridge is
expected to strengthen slowly through the weekend and into next week
becoming the dominate weather feature controlling the pattern over
the southeastern U.S. This ridge will also help to cap convective
activity through day 7 but in turn we will also see temps and heat
indices increasing too. Looking at 60% to 80% PoPs at the beginning
of the forecast slowly decreasing to 20% to 40% by day 7. Also, by
the time we get towards the end of the work week we`ll likely be
seeing triple digit heat indices for the first time this year as
temps rise into the mid 90s and dewpoints stay in the 70s. The
models don`t show any sign of relief and the only chance we have of
seeing a temporary reprieve will come in the form of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.

Continual SW flow out off the Gulf will fuel not just the humidity
but our diurnal pattern. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected
through the rest of the work week but by Saturday the Euro is
picking up on a bit of a pattern change. As the surface ridge
strengthens the upper level ridge moves a bit further north into the
Mid Atlantic states putting us in east upper level flow. This will
bring in Atlantic moisture instead of Gulf moisture which should be
a little less moisture latent.

One of the big concerns we have this week will be flooding. With
dewpoints this high, our afternoon storms are likely to be efficient
rain makers. Precipitable water values (PWs) remain in the 1.5" to
2.5" range through the periods. If storms line up over the same area
day after day, we could see some isolated flash flooding or some
rivers that go to flood stage.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Mostly VFR through day with sct to bkn cu field around 3-4kft.
Clusters of shra/tsra develop this afternoon generally out of the
west. Best timing 21z-02z timeframe, with isolated possible after
2z. SCT low clouds tomorrow morning, especially in areas that
receive rainfall this afternoon, could be BKN at times. TSRA
chances return Wednesday afternoon. Winds W to SW through period,
could gust to 20kts this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High all elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  72  90 /  30  30  20  70
Atlanta         72  90  73  89 /  20  40  20  70
Blairsville     65  83  66  82 /  60  70  40  90
Cartersville    69  89  71  88 /  50  50  30  80
Columbus        72  92  72  92 /  10  30  10  60
Gainesville     70  88  72  87 /  40  50  30  80
Macon           72  92  73  91 /  10  20  10  50
Rome            70  87  71  86 /  50  60  30  90
Peachtree City  71  90  72  90 /  20  40  10  70
Vidalia         74  94  74  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SM