527
FXUS62 KFFC 302033
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
333 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 313 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - Waves of rainfall are expected this evening through Tuesday
   afternoon. Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible.

 - Another wave of rainfall is possible Friday into Saturday.
   This looks like a "cold rain", but some potential does exist
   for winter weather in far NE GA (~10% at this writing).


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Rain is underway across parts of north and central Georgia as a
cold front pushes into the state from the northwest. Instability
is essentially zero, which means the chances for thunder are also
essentially zero. Rainfall intensity has generally been light to
moderate, and the progression of the front is ensuring that the
rain is shifting south/east and not remaining over a given area
for an exceedingly long time. Thus, flooding is not a concern.

Dense cloud cover and widespread rainfall through the morning
across north Georgia have generally capped temperatures in the
40s. Conversely, across parts of central Georgia, temperatures
have climbed into the 60s and even low 70s as much less cloud
cover has allowed for warming. Parts of central Georgia
(especially east-central Georgia) may end up rain-free through the
evening as CAMs depict rain decreasing in coverage and slowing in
its southward/eastward progression.

The overnight/early tomorrow (Monday) morning hours will bring
quite a temperature difference from north to south across the
County Warning Area (CWA), with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s
roughly along and north of the I-85 corridor, and in the 40s
south of that area. Isolated rain may persist overnight, but at
this time, expecting that precip will occur to the south of where
temperatures will be freezing. Similar to today, highs tomorrow
will be much cooler across north Georgia than those across central
Georgia.

Another wave of rain is expected to arrive Monday evening and
persist through the overnight hours as a Gulf low approaches from
the southwest. The placement of the low largely to the south of
the CWA will likely support bands of moderate to heavy rainfall,
and depending on where bands set up, localized flooding cannot be
ruled out (especially in urban areas like Atlanta).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Long term picks up Tuesday where phased waves within the northern
and southern branch of the jet will be passing by the CWA and
dragging the cold front fully through us. This will bring an end
to the rainfall from west to east across the area. Some showers
could linger into the late morning to early afternoon from some
before clearing begins to happen. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
looks chilly, with low in the 20s and 30s thanks to clearing
skies. Shortwave ridging will build overhead in the southern
branch of the jet, keeping us clear on Wednesday with highs in the
50s across the CWA.

Things are starting to look interesting on the backend of the
week. Models are starting to come in with solutions that bring an
initial strong trough across the northeast on Thursday that pushes
a stalling cold front towards the CWA. More importantly, this
wave pushes through the NE CONUS and brings a relatively strong
surface high pressure over the northern Appalachians within the
AVA on the backside. Our more avid readers may recognize this as a
pretty classic setup for cold air damming/"the wedge" across
Georgia, which brings cold air streaming down from the northeast
into the area. Staggered with this system is another shortwave
within the southern branch of the jet that begins to eject slowly
into the area late Thursday into Friday. With a nice baroclinic
zone established by a stalled cold front, some decent surface
cyclogenesis kicks off bringing a pretty potent surface low
across the CWA. Moisture is advected into the CWA, isentropically
lifted over the wedge, and precip looks to be plentiful, if this
does indeed play out. This is also a pretty classic setup to get
some winter weather in the CWA...though we may be a bit early in
the season and may not be able to quite tap into cold enough air
just yet. But more on that. At the very least, widespread cold
rain across much of north and central Georgia will be possible on
Friday into Saturday.

Let`s talk a little about the ensembles and the winter wx
potential. Looking at the NBM, there is a clear signal within the
"weighted/adjusted" output there is a clear signal for a wedge
within the data. Going to the 10th and 90th percentiles shows a
wide distribution, with temps in northeast GA as low as 33 on the
10th and as high as the mid 40s on the 90th. To see a bit more
what is happening, K-mean clustering of the 500 mb heights on
Thursday night into Friday morning shows a clear set of groupings,
with stronger wedge setups being favored in those that have a
deeper wave in the northern branch (stronger surface high sets up,
better CAA from stronger barrier jet) or are amplified with the
ridge behind (similar in creating a potentially stronger surface
high, but for different reasons). Needless to say, if we see an
evolution towards a stronger set up for the high, we may need to
start monitoring for some winter weather potential, as high temps
closer to the mid 30s may be cutting it close. Right now, would
lean away from the winter wx until we see more consistency in the
models for a stronger surface high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

The northern terminals are observing IFR CIGs and OCNL IFR/MVFR
VIS as LGT/MOD SHRA push through. These conditions will continue
into this evening with SHRA/DZ tapering off by ~03z. A several-
hour period of CIG improvement may occur before CIGs return to
MVFR around daybreak tomorrow (Monday). At ATL, current light NE
winds should pivot to NW ~20z. The southern terminals (MCN and
CSG) should see CIGs drop to MVFR this evening with PSBL SHRA/DZ,
depending on how far south the front drops.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on evolution of CIGs and VIS reductions.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  49  37  54 /  40  50 100  70
Atlanta         39  51  41  51 /  30  50 100  60
Blairsville     29  49  34  47 /  10  50 100  70
Cartersville    31  52  39  50 /  20  50 100  60
Columbus        46  60  48  59 /  30  50 100  50
Gainesville     39  48  38  52 /  20  50 100  70
Macon           46  60  46  59 /  30  50  90  70
Rome            33  55  42  51 /  10  50 100  50
Peachtree City  38  53  42  54 /  30  50 100  60
Vidalia         49  65  50  66 /  20  50  90  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Martin