511
FXUS62 KFFC 221041
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
641 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases today with high
    rain chances persisting through Saturday, particularly
    across north Georgia where a frontal boundary will stall.

  - Thunderstorms will bring the risk for heavy rainfall and
    localized flash flooding through late week.

  - High temperatures will trend cooler through late week as the
    front settles into north Georgia before rebounding next week.



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

There are a couple of primary features of note across the region
this morning. The first is lopsided Tropical Storm Bertha, currently
situated off the Gulf coast of Alabama and struggling within an
environment of strong wind shear as it continues westward. Secondly,
a cold front will push southward into the Tennessee Valley today,
becoming the primary weather maker for us through the short term.
While Bertha will never have any direct impact, deep tropical
moisture associated with the system (characterized by PWATs well
over 2" and near daily climatological maximums)
will be shunted north-northeastward through the day today as the
front approaches. This will initially lead to increased coverage of
scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, any of which will be capable of locally heavy rainfall.

The focus overnight then turns to the front as it sags into far
north Georgia. Forward progression will begin to slow, and CAMs
continue to indicate the potential for training showers and
thunderstorms across far north Georgia tonight into Thursday morning
within the frontal zone. While widespread flash flooding is not
expected, given the very moist airmass, localized flash flooding
will be possible in far north Georgia tonight into Thursday morning.
As such, a "Slight" Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC
highlights this potential.

Heading into the day Thursday, the front becomes more or less
stationary across north Georgia. The band of very high 2+" PWATs
interacting with the continued forcing of the frontal boundary will
lead to continued locally heavy rainfall concerns on Thursday.
Again, while widespread flash flooding is not currently anticipated,
localized flash flooding will remain a distinct possibility,
particularly where convective training occurs. The "Slight" Risk for
Excessive Rainfall expands further across all of north Georgia as a
result.

The positive attribute of the presence of the front and increased
convection will be gradually downward-trending
temperatures in north Georgia from today into Thursday as highs step
down slightly from the lower 90s to the mid-to-upper 80s. Even so,
plenty of 90s will remain in place across Middle Georgia each day
where rainfall coverage will be less abundant, and heat index values
will still peak above 100 for many.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Slightly cooler, slightly less humid conditions remain expected
Thursday through Sunday with highs generally ranging from the low
80s north of the Atlanta metro to the low 90s across our far
southeastern counties, and lows ranging from the upper 60s north to
lower 70s southeast. The most noticeable relief from our recent heat
will definitely be felt across the north Georgia mountains, with
less of a real pattern change as you head south. Variable areas of
even cooler conditions will be possible tied to thunderstorms and
attendant cloud cover. The heat and humidity look to return in
earnest early next week, with high temperatures rising back into the
mid to upper 90s and heat index values reaching 100 north to 110
southeast. If this forecast holds, Heat Advisories may be needed for
portions of the CWA as early as Monday.

Meanwhile, the weak cool front responsible for the modest relief
late week into the weekend is forecast to stall/wash out across the
area, and combine with additional moisture from Tropical Storm
Bertha (or its remnants) to continue to support increased daily
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. We now carry PoPs of 50-80%
across large swaths of the CWA each day through Saturday. Localized
flash flooding will continue to be a primary concern through this
period with model forecast soundings suggesting PWATs of 2.00 to
2.50 inches and relatively weak steering flow at times, with this
risk locally enhanced in locations that become saturated from a
previous day`s storms. WPC currently carries a Marginal Risk to
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across the entire CWA Thursday,
with a Marginal Risk continuing for most areas Friday and Saturday.
Gusty winds will remain possible with the stronger storms as well.
Storm coverage will return to a more typical isolated to scattered
posture early next week as the heat returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas of MVFR to IFR cigs this morning will begin to scatter and
lift toward low-end VFR by 15-16Z with VFR largely expected by
afternoon outside of SHRA/TSRA. Sct SHRA/TSRA will be most
probable 20-02Z. Additional MVFR to IFR cigs are possible by
10-12Z Thursday. Winds will be largely SSW to SW at 6-10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  74  90  70 /  30  50  50  80
Atlanta         90  75  89  73 /  40  40  60  80
Blairsville     84  69  81  66 /  50  90  80  70
Cartersville    91  74  87  72 /  30  60  70  80
Columbus        92  75  93  75 /  50  10  30  20
Gainesville     90  74  86  70 /  40  70  60  80
Macon           92  75  93  75 /  20  10  10  30
Rome            91  73  86  71 /  40  70  70  70
Peachtree City  90  74  90  72 /  40  30  50  70
Vidalia         96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Smith
AVIATION...RW