553
FXUS62 KFFC 140144
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
944 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025


...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Forecast remains on track for this evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely to continue for the next several hours.
With loss of diurnal heating, expect coverage and intensity to
continue to taper off. Patchy dense fog development is possible
once again tonight, owing to abundant moisture throughout the
column and in the wake of this afternoon/evening`s storms. Under
some semblance of insulating cloud cover for much of the area,
expect relatively warm lows, dropping into the 60s to lower 70s.

96

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Continued robust southwesterly flow from the cutoff low over the
gulf will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across
the area. Coverage will be patchy with a summer-like pattern, though
high PWATS and the approaching low will drive generally increasing
coverage through the weekend. Thunderstorms this afternoon are
likely to be more organized than yesterday with a passing shortwave
currently over western AL and TN alongside effects from sea breeze
convection from the southeast. A few light showers have already
begun to pop across central and north GA where SFCCAPE values
currently sit at nearly 2000-3000 J/Kg. Storm potential is expected
to peak each afternoon with diurnal heating and taper off through
the late evening. A few storms could become strong with locally
heavy rainfall (could lead to localized flash flooding), frequent
lighting (an issue for many who plan to be outside this weekend),
and locally gusty winds (40-50mph). Widespread or organized severe
is not anticipated at this time with DCAPE values less than 900
J/Kg, but water loading could lead to a very isolated threat for
damaging winds.

While temperatures won`t be anything too impressive, dewpoints in
the 70s and highs in the 80s will mean apparent temperatures reach
into the 90s by the end of the weekend. Stay hydrated and be aware
of how much time you spend outdoors.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

With persistent troughing extending from the Great Lakes towards the
Lower Mississippi River Valley, southwesterly upper level flow will
remain in place over the region on Sunday and into next week, which
will keep conditions wet and humid across north and central Georgia.
Continued advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf will keep
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and precipitable water values mainly
between 1.75 and 2 inches during the weekend and through the early
parts of next week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
higher than normal each day given this ample moisture. Convective
activity will be largely diurnally driven, with low PoPs through
much of the mornings, increasing through the early afternoons, and
peaking between 60-70% in the mid to late afternoon hours each day.
The southern end of a surface low (to the east of the trough)
advancing through the Tennessee Valley region on Sunday afternoon is
expected to provide additional lift and contribute to locally higher
PoPs across the northern tier.

While the threat for organized severe weather will be low, a few
storms each day could become strong and capable of producing
frequent lightning and gusty winds. Furthermore, with high PWATs,
these storms will be efficient rainfall producers, which could lead
to isolated flooding concerns. As the wet pattern continues,
antecedent soil conditions will become more saturated in
locations that see heavy rainfall accumulations over the course of
multiple days, and the probability for flash flooding will
progressively increase as a result. Patchy fog will also be
possible during the overnight and early morning hours,
particularly where soils are saturated from previous rainfall and
cloud cover dissipates.

Considering the chances for showers and thunderstorms each day and
the associated cloud cover, high temperatures will run near normal
for mid-June on Sunday, in the 80s across the majority of the area
area. Temperatures will begin to climb in the early portions of next
week, particularly to the south of the Fall Line, where highs will
rise into the low to mid 90s. These temperatures, combined with the
aforementioned dewpoints, will contribute to maximum heat indices of
98-103 degrees in portions of central Georgia on Monday through
Thursday. Low temperatures will closely reflect the dewpoints, and
will run about 4-8 degrees above daily normals each morning.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Chance for lingering -TSRA impacts at ATL thru 03Z tonight. A pd
of IFR (and perhaps LIFR) cigs is psbl between 09-14Z for
northern TAF sites, and cannot rule out some low-VFR to MVFR
vsbys in tandem, but confidence is relatively low. Beyond that,
primarily SCT-BKN low VFR to MVFR cigs exp thru the pd. VCSH
likely beginning as early as 15-16Z, with best chances for -TSRA
on Saturday aftn between 18-24Z areawide, but may extend after
sunset depending on where initiation occurs. Winds will remain
light (4-5kts or less) out of the SW overnight, picking up at
speeds of 5-8kts -- outside of any TSRA -- from 15-16Z on.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  87  70  85 /  70  60  50  70
Atlanta         72  87  71  85 /  50  50  50  70
Blairsville     66  83  65  80 /  50  50  80  80
Cartersville    70  89  70  87 /  40  50  60  80
Columbus        73  90  72  87 /  30  50  40  70
Gainesville     70  86  70  83 /  70  60  50  80
Macon           71  89  71  88 /  60  60  50  80
Rome            71  88  69  86 /  30  60  60  80
Peachtree City  70  87  70  86 /  40  50  50  70
Vidalia         73  91  73  88 /  50  70  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96