049
FXUS62 KFFC 051922
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  across the area from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
  morning. Several storms may be severe, capable of producing
  damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from late Wednesday through Thursday
  morning for portions of North and Central GA where a widespread
  1 to 2 inches of rainfall and localized amounts over 4 inches
  may lead to flooding in poor drainage and flood prone areas.

- Cooler temperatures Thursday into Friday will give way to a
  warming trend through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Warm and Dry Until Active Weather Arrives Wednesday:

Pleasant weather continues across north and central Georgia
through tonight as high pressure slowly shifts away and loosens
its grip on the area while mid-level troughing dives into the
central US. In response, low to mid-level flow has turned out of
the south-southwest, and started ushering in a warmer and more
humid airmass. The first sign of this airmass will be temps
climbing into the low to mid 80s across much of the area this
afternoon. Tonight will be the second sign, as dewpoints surge
into the low 60s by Wednesday morning, keeping low temps in that
range as well. Most of the area will stay dry through noon on
Wednesday, with the exception being across far northern GA where
showers and storms will be possible from early morning on as an
approaching frontal boundary meets the strong warm air advection
and southerly winds. From Wednesday afternoon into the early
evening, this threat will expand to areas from Atlanta metro
northward. As the frontal boundary continues to push southeast
into the warm and humid airmass late Wednesday evening and
overnight, it will likely create multiple rounds of widespread
showers and storms across the rest of north and central Georgia
bringing threats for severe weather and flooding.

Severe Weather Potential:

Confidence continues to increase in the potential for severe
weather across portions of north and central Georgia starting
Wednesday afternoon and lasting through early Thursday morning.
The Storm Prediction Center has most of north and portions of
central GA, including the Atlanta metro, in a Level 2 of 5 risk
for severe weather during this timeframe. Our initial severe
threat may be Wednesday afternoon as isolated storms could develop
across areas from Atlanta northward, though confidence in these
storms developing is low as there won`t be much forcing. The more
likely timeframe for activity is from Wednesday evening into early
Thursday morning as the frontal boundary and a potential line of
strong to severe storms pushes through the area. Model guidance
continues to show an environment out ahead of the frontal boundary
of 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, 40-50 kts of effective shear, and low
level helicity of 150-250 m2/s2. A major contributor to these
strong shear values is a screaming southwesterly low level jet
that develops after sunset. Storm modes will likely initially be a
combination of discrete supercells and bowing segments out ahead
of the front in the evening, before merging into an MCS with
potentially embedded supercells overnight. All severe hazards
would be possible in this setup, including damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes. Given the high shear, a strong tornado
could not be ruled out across north GA if things come together
favorably with a discrete or embedded supercell. As with all
setups like this, there are some factors that could lower the
overall severe threat, like the morning convection across north GA
limiting instability later in the day. Our confidence in the
severe threat, and any changes to it, will continue to increase as
we get closer to the timeframe on Wednesday, so stay tuned for
updates!

Flooding Potential:

In addition to severe weather, our other concern is the potential
for localized flash flooding. Precipitable water values are
forecast to approach or even exceed 2 inches late Wednesday into
Wednesday night, which would be above the 99th percentile for this
time of year, and be one of the top ten PWATs on record for May
based on our sounding history at KFFC. The very high moisture
content will contribute to efficient rain rates, with storm motion
and the potential training of showers/storms only increasing
flood potential. As a signal of this, the Weather Prediction
Center has most of north and portions of central GA in a Level 2
of 4 risk for localized flash flooding. A Flood Watch has been
issued for the areas of highest concern, where a widespread 1.5 to
2.5 inches, and localized amounts of 4 inches or more, will lead
to the potential for flooding of poor drainage and urban areas, as
well as creeks and streams prone to flash flooding. Some of you
may be wondering how we could have flooding during a significant
drought, but the very dry/hard grounds can lead to more rapid
runoff and a higher flood threat than soft/wet grounds. One thing
the drought will have an influence on, is that main stem rivers
are low, and will not be at risk for flooding during this event.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Widespread convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in advance
of a cold front progressing slowly southward. This activity
should gradually wane by Thursday afternoon/evening as midlevel
shortwave departs eastward and the surface front begins to become
stationary across central/south Georgia. With this stationary
boundary remaining anchored into south Georgia through late week,
at least slight chance/low end chance PoPs will linger across the
southern portions of the area. With that said, there will
certainly be some dry periods for much of the area headed into the
weekend, particularly on Friday as transient surface high
pressure brings a cooler and drier airmass across north Georgia.

PoPs look to trend back upward by late weekend into early next
week as the front is reactivated as a warm front and lifts back
northward as a cutoff low over the Southwest US ejects eastward as
a southern stream wave. Thereafter, a drier regime will return by
the end of the period as surface high pressure returns in the
wake of a cold front.

Temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster. An initial
cooldown Thursday into Friday will bring below normal lows in the
40s and 50s Friday morning. A warming trend through the weekend
will bring temperatures back to near to slightly above normal
ahead of the late weekend/early week front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions to start the period with increasing high clouds
(20-25kft) throughout the day into the overnight hours. Chances
for a period of MVFR or lower CIGs will increase around 10-16Z
Wednesday for the ATL area, with very low end SHRA chances as
well. A return to VFR CIGs and PROB30 SHRA is expected after 18Z
Wednesday. Winds out of the S-SW at around 10kts this afternoon,
then becoming light again tonight, and returning to 10G20kts
Wednesday morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium in timing and heights of low CIGs Wednesday AM. High on
other elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  83  65  79 /  10  40  80  80
Atlanta         63  83  66  76 /  10  40  90  80
Blairsville     57  73  59  72 /  40  80 100  70
Cartersville    61  81  62  75 /  20  70 100  70
Columbus        60  88  67  79 /   0  20  60  90
Gainesville     61  80  65  77 /  20  60  90  80
Macon           58  89  66  80 /   0  10  50  90
Rome            62  80  62  74 /  20  80 100  60
Peachtree City  60  85  65  78 /  10  30  80  90
Vidalia         62  91  68  86 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-030>035-041>048-052>059-066>071-
078-079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Culver