732
FXUS62 KFFC 021924
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
324 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Growing concern for heavy rainfall and instances of flash
  flooding across portions of NW Georgia (terrain induced) and
  Central Georgia.

- Stronger thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging
downburst winds 40 to 60 MPH across Central Georgia.

- `Cool` below normal temperatures will stick around on Sunday with
forecast high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s.

There are many factors contributing to the forecast for today.
Overnight a `wedge` front took up residence across much of northeast
Georgia (including the ATL metro) and is the reason for the blanket
of cloud cover and drizzle in those areas this morning. Outside of
the wedge a stationary boundary has set up over portions of Central
Georgia -- roughly Columbus to Macon and extending southeast. A
surface trough is also in place across far NW Georgia. It`s along
and in the vicinity of these two boundaries (stationary boundary and
trough) that scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms have
begun to develop. With strong westerly flow nearly parallel to the
stationary boundary and high PWs, storms are likely to be slow-
moving and/or develop over the same areas. Storms forming in NW GA
are likely to be enhanced by the terrain and a weak shortwave that
will be sliding across the region later this evening. While
temperatures are lower than in previous days, the airmass over our
area still remains quite moist with PWs ranging 1.8 to 2.2 inches
(per current SPC Mesoanalysis). These PWs combined with CAPE values
up 2000-3500 J/kg will allow for storms to be efficient rainfall
producers and could produce local rainfall rates of up to 2-3"/hour.
Thus, heavy rainfall and flash flooding is a growing concern for
both NW and Central GA as we head into the evening. In addition to
flooding, stronger thunderstorms may be capable of producing
damaging downburst winds up to 50 MPH, small hail, and frequent
lightning.

WPC has updated the latest Excessive Rainfall Outlook to include a
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) across NW Georgia down through Central
Georgia. This does not include the Atlanta Metro. A Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 4) remains in place for roughly the same areas on Sunday
(tomorrow). Anticipate rainfall totals over the next 24 hours will
range from 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches
in the locations previously mentioned. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of
5) for severe storms remains in place across Central Georgia for
this afternoon.

For locations under the influence of the wedge, only rainfall is
expected through the remainder of the day. Isolated to widely
scattered rain showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms look to
persist through the overnight hours. Clouds will once again fill
back in overnight and patchy fog will also be possible particularly
in areas that receive heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s and forecast highs for Sunday will
range from the mid 70s to low 80s (Upper 60s to low 70s in NE
Georgia).

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Key Messages:

    - Elevated rainfall totals likely to lead to flooding issues
this week.

    - Below normal high temps to start the week due to increase
cloud cover and rainfall.

Discussion:

Flooding will be the main story for the long term as we grow
increasingly concerned in multiple days of rainfall that are likely
to lead to flooding concerns. The front has just about stalled out
over central Georgia near MCN and CSG and is expected to drift
further south potentially but overall stay in the central GA
vicinity near or south of the fall line. This along with the moist
airmass in place will lead to the focus in increased rainfall and
higher rainfall totals through mid week. To our west the trough will
also help funnel in moisture into the area. Forecasted PWATs are
expected to remain in the 2-2.2" range which is above the 90th
percentile and also reaching record daily maxes for this time of
year. Add in daytime heating resulting in convectively enhanced
precipitation, little to no shear and these slow moving storms will
be capable of dropping increased amounts of rainfall over short time
periods. Our current forecasted rainfall totals through mid week are
~4-6 inches over this central Georgia portion with amounts of 1-3
inches north of the front. The Euro has trended wetter while the GFS
a bit drier but overall even the 10th percentile is showing 1-3
inches. The higher end amount does seem to have become a little bit
more in the realm of possibility as opposed to yesterday but still
may be a little too high at close to 8-10 inches. Like yesterday
though, would not be surprised if an isolated area does receive close
to that 8 inch mark before mid week is over with the current setup.
Fortunately this area does have a sandy soils and thus a higher
flash flood guidance at 3-4 inches needed over 3 hours and this
rainfall seems to be more spread-out so although we are expecting
flooding concerns, not confident in widespread issues quite yet.

Outside of the flooding potential, the wedge looks to hang on into
the beginning of the week resulting in highs on Monday in the low to
mid 70s. This will be well below normal for this time of year at 15
degrees below normal. By mid to late week we should see the trough
begin to swing eastward resulting in a return to a more normal
summer pattern with scattered thunderstorms and increasing
temperatures (although still staying below 90 for now).

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

MVFR and patchy IFR cigs are expected to stick around through the
afternoon with gradually deteriorating conditions after 00z. SCT
shra/tsra has already begun to develop around the periphery of the
wedge. Anticipating any tsra to bring potential impacts to
MCN/CSG only with ra elsewhere. Winds remain out of the east at 8
to 14kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  74  63  75 /  60  70  50  50
Atlanta         68  73  65  74 /  60  60  50  50
Blairsville     63  69  59  73 /  60  60  30  40
Cartersville    68  76  65  77 /  70  60  30  40
Columbus        72  80  67  78 /  80  80  60  70
Gainesville     66  72  63  74 /  60  60  40  40
Macon           69  77  66  78 /  70  70  60  70
Rome            68  77  64  79 /  70  60  30  30
Peachtree City  68  74  64  75 /  70  60  50  50
Vidalia         71  78  68  80 /  70  80  70  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...07