905
FXUS62 KFFC 081029
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
629 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of northwest Georgia
   due to a heightened risk of flash flooding.

 - Daily rain and thunderstorm chances stay in the forecast
   through the week for North and Central Georgia.

 - Frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with any
   storms that develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Thankfully we were spared of the impacts of significant rainfall
that occurred just to our west in Alabama on Sunday. Rainfall rates
generally trended 1-1.5" at most, though currently are less than
half an inch. MRMS estimates roughly 1-2" of rain from Dade down
to Troup County with pockets in the neighborhood of 3-3.5" in a
few spots have fallen over the past 24-hour. Counties eastward
overall trended less than an inch over the past 24 hours. Light
and in some cases moderate rain showers will persist and may
diminish this morning across west-central GA. Latest GOES WV
imagery depicts a shortwave trough swinging through the OK/AR/MO
area. This feature will lift NE through the morning and provide
support for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop today
across North and portions of Central GA. More of the same can be
expected heading into Tuesday as midlevel disturbances to our
north traverse eastward.

Our main concern for both today (Monday) and Tuesday will monitoring
rainfall rates as showers and thunderstorms blossom across the
forecast area in waves. Strong S/SW flow from the surface to the
upper levels will continue to support bountiful moisture streaming
into the area and weak flow in the upper levels means this activity
will be slow moving and may `train` (occur in the same areas
repeatedly). Per SPC Mesoanalysis, our PWs currently sit in excess
of 1.8" across the entirety of the forecast area with values closest
to 2.0" currently hugging western GA. These higher values, a daily
max per SPC sounding climatology, will inch eastward as the
shortwave (mentioned previous), swings northeast. Thus, any showers
or thunderstorms will be capable of producing very high rainfall
rates and dropping heavy rainfall over a short period of time posing
a flash flood threat. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) remains in place
across North GA as far south as the ATL Metro for today. The current
forecast has at least another 1-2" of rain over portions of North
and west GA and less than an inch elsewhere. However, would not
be at all surprised to see higher totals (2-3+" given the state of
the environment. Showers and thunderstorms may be more diurnally
driven across far south-central GA, especially if cloud coverage
decreases any.

There still remains some uncertainty in where the highest rainfall
sets up today. But in considering the current environment and higher
forecast rain totals setting up in areas that already received
decent rainfall, elected to issue a Flood Watch for portions of
north and west Georgia through this evening. Possible expansion and
extension of the watch may be warranted but will depend on how
things play out today. With summer in full swing, ensure you are
closely monitoring the forecast and remain aware of areas that
receive significant rainfall as these areas will be prone to
flooding. This is especially important for those partaking in
activities outdoors and camping near bodies of water.

Cloud cover and rainfall will keep a lid on our temperatures over
the next 2 days. Forecast highs will be in the 70s for most places
but reach the mid 80s across south-central Georgia. Mild
temperatures expected each night with forecast values in the 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Southerly flow continues into the extended periods with diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon.
Model guidance showing chance to numerous PoPs across the CWA
through day 7 with the highest PoPs across western and northern
Georgia due to the Bermuda ridge sticking around. A very moisture
latent atmosphere remains with PWAT values expected in the 2" to 3"
range each day. Cloud cover and rain chances keep temperatures Wed
and Thu mainly in the 80s with temps getting up into the 90s for Fri
and Sat. With high humidity values and very warm temps could see
some Heat index values getting up into the 100 to 104 deg range
going into the weekend.

By Day 5 the ECMWF and GFS begin to show very similar but slightly
different solutions. Both are showing a tropical system beginning to
develop across the southern Gulf, and unlike yesterday, the GFS is now
taking this tropical system westward into the east coast of Mexico.
This is what the ECMWF was showing and is still showing Today. The
biggest difference is the strength of the tropical system. The GFS
is showing a much more robust system developing across the central
Gulf through the weekend. With the Bermuda ridge keeping southerly
flow across the Gulf coast states, some of this deep tropical
moisture could make its way northward across the region. This deeper
moisture could mean much higher rain rates as we get into next week.
It is good to see the models are coming into a bit better agreement
with this system but will still need to keep a close eye on things
over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Mid- to high-level clouds (abv 5kft) dominate this morning but IFR
cigs are still psbl through at least 15z. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR
cigs expected for most of today. Spotty -RA is ongoing and will
become more widespread around 15z. SHRA will be on and off, heavy at
times, through the period and likely letting up after 04z. Embedded
tsra remains psbl during the aftn though confidence is low. SW winds
3-7kts thru the period. Cigs and vsbys are are expected to lower
again to IFR/MVFR between 06-14z Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          81  68  81  67 /  60  40  60  10
Atlanta         81  70  82  69 /  80  50  60  10
Blairsville     76  64  78  64 /  90  60  70  20
Cartersville    81  69  84  69 /  80  60  70  10
Columbus        88  72  85  69 /  30  30  50  10
Gainesville     79  68  80  68 /  70  60  50  20
Macon           85  70  83  67 /  50  40  50   0
Rome            80  68  85  68 /  80  60  60  10
Peachtree City  82  69  83  67 /  70  50  50  10
Vidalia         90  72  88  70 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ001>007-011>014-019>022-
030>034-041>046-053>055-057.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07