650
FXUS62 KFFC 161044
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
644 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Oppressive heat will continue through early next week. A Heat
   Advisory remains in effect through Monday evening and
   additional heat headlines are likely.

 - A few strong to severe storms will be possible across far north
   Georgia on Monday afternoon and evening. Primary threat will be
   damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be around to some
   degree each afternoon, with primary threats being gusty winds
   and locally heavy rainfall.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The top headline remains the heat. Rinse and repeat the heat we just
can`t beat (the midnight shifts are getting to me). The ridge
continues to remain overhead with some slightly drier air
rotating around it into western and northern GA. This may bring a
slight decrease in afternoon "feels like" temperatures in these
areas with decreased humidity, though the counter to that will be
air temperatures that soar into the upper 90s thanks to those
slightly lower moisture values (water is a great thermal regulator
because of high specific heat, for the nerds). Given we`ve now
seen 4 days (or more) of 100+ heat indices, will continue to ride
with the Heat Advisories for these areas even if 105 values may
only be briefly reached during the afternoon. Impacts will likely
be similar to previous days. As for the rest of the area, PWATs
remain closer to 2" and the surface moisture continues to stick
around. Highs will be in the mid 90s and dewpoints remain in the
mid to upper 70s, so heat indices will surge well into the mid to
upper 100s, and some isolated 110s are possible. Afternoon
convection remains possible in these areas bringing some relief
from the heat from those that see a storm. We again see little to
no shear but decent surface based instability, so a few strong
storms and even a briefly severe storm or 2 will be possible as
larger storm cores come crashing back down.

Looking into Monday requires a little bit of setup from Sunday. As
we continue to bake, surface high pressure will come crashing into
the upper Great Plains and quickly slide south and east. Given
quickly disappearing upper level support, this high will quickly
begin to weaken, but will still represent a more continental air
mass sliding into the moisture fed air mass across the south,
setting up a frontal boundary where the two meet across the Ohio
River Valley south into TN. On Monday, this looks like it will
create enough moisture convergence and lift for some focused
thunderstorm development that could skirt the far northern portions
of Georgia. This also may be aided by a weak vortmax embedded within
the upper level flow that looks to be convectively generated over
the Rockies late Sunday. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place
across northern Georgia with the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) just
brushing the far northern counties for Monday. Primary threat would
be damaging wind gusts for any storms that can form more organized
cold pools.

Otherwise, the bigger story Monday will once again be the heat. The
Heat Advisory is extended once again, now going to 8pm. The slightly
drier air rotates its way through much of the CWA. Actual air
temperatures will be well into the upper 90s and some areas will
likely hit triple digits. While the humidity won`t be as oppressive
as some of the previous days, it will still be present, and feels
like temps will once again surge well into the 105-110 range across
much of the area. Continue to take heat precautions when outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Heat will continue to be the big concern through the long term
forecast. The models are in pretty good agreement that we will be at
or just below heat advisory through the work week. Daytime highs in
the mid to upper 90s will yield apparent temperatures between 100-
105 for all but the highest elevations of NE Georgia.

The pattern should break towards the end of the week as we return to
more NW flow and get a wave of precip on Friday and into Saturday.
Beyond that, its difficult to say whether we clear out or if a
stationary front sets up across the SE brining unsettled weather
through the weekend and into next week. For now though, the main
concern will continue to be heat and afternoon thunderstorms; the
deep south in the summer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR through TAF period. No vsby or cig concerns. Winds will pick
up from NW at 4-8 kts today before going light to calm overnight.
Some afternoon cu are expected. TSRA chances for metro sites are
not zero, but too low for mention in TAF.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  75  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         96  77  98  77 /  10   0  10  10
Blairsville     89  70  90  69 /  10   0  30  10
Cartersville    97  75  98  74 /   0   0  20  10
Columbus        97  77  98  77 /  20  10  10  10
Gainesville     95  75  97  75 /  10   0  10   0
Macon           95  75  97  76 /  20  10  10   0
Rome            97  76  97  75 /   0   0  30  10
Peachtree City  95  75  97  75 /  10   0   0  10
Vidalia         96  76  99  78 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ001>005-011-012-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Lusk