590
FXUS62 KFFC 212349
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
649 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Rain showers are expected this evening and overnight across
   much of north Georgia and portions of central Georgia. A few
   rumbles of thunder possible. Rain amounts will be light.

 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next
   week. A few record highs may be met or broken over the coming
   days at our four main climate sites.

 - A few rounds of showers or thunderstorms may be possible
   starting midweek next week. Uncertainty is high on rain
   amounts, so continue to monitor the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Rain showers have begun across portions of far north Georgia early
this afternoon and are knocking on the door of portions of western
Georgia. Showers will continue to be a bit slow to build in as light
rain overcomes the drier layers of air noted in this morning`s
sounding at FFC that extend from near the surface to almost 500 mb.
As things moisten, showers should begin later this afternoon from
west to east given the persistent southerly flow and moisture
advection from the Gulf ahead of a weak low moving quickly with a
shortwave embedded within the southern branch of the upper level
jet.

This system will get collected by a trough over the NE within
the northern branch of the upper level jet tonight into tomorrow and
push east of the area. Expecting showers to continue through the
night, with best chances across north Georgia and decreasing as you
move south. As the better moisture draw and lift exits with the
system in the morning, the expectation is that showers should become
less and less numerous, though some patches of rain may be possible
into the afternoon across both north and central Georgia. A weak
frontal boundary will push into north GA tomorrow afternoon and
slide south into the evening hours through the CWA, bringing some
drier air in behind that will put an end to any shower chances. Over
the next 36 hours, overall rain amounts should be light, generally
under 0.25", though a few isolated locations could see a little more.

In terms of thunderstorm development, a few rumbles of thunder may
be possible tonight across the CWA as an occasional storm is
embedded within the showers of rain. A few models show some thin
instability that air parcels may be able to take advantage of
through the overnight. Tomorrow, there is some better instability
thanks to colder air aloft ahead of the cold front. HREF mean shows
~1000 J/kg in portions of central Georgia by the afternoon. However,
getting storms started may be the problem, as convergence along the
cold front is poor and better upper level support pushes away from
the area. A few storms may be possible, especially in central
Georgia, but these should be isolated. Severe weather is not
expected, though there is enough SRH around that if parameters look
slightly better in future model runs, I wouldn`t rule out a Marginal
Risk being issued for Saturday.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Upper level flow through the long term outlook can be described as
chaotic. Conditions on Sunday start the region off with NW flow and
a modest post front dry airmass. PWATs fall between 0.5" and 0.75"
with temperatures remaining near 70.

Apologies in advance, prepare for my Charlie Day conspiracy meme
moment. As we move into Monday, low amplitude ridging develops
across the south and a deep cut-off low drifts off the central
Rockies. As always the exact motion of the cutoff low is difficult
to model. EOF analysis shows significantly different regimes between
the ECMWF and GFS spaces with the development of the western polar
trough and subsequent plains ridge development, which will have
impacts downstream to southeast precipitation. So what are our
regimes we have to work with here? It can all be traced back to the
ejection of the cutoff low timed with a diving polar trough. The
ECMWF ejects the cut-off energy by Monday morning ahead of the
diving polar Jet. This means energy between the diving trough, the
ejecting cut-off low, and a cheeky little shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet remain out of phase. This de-amplifys the developing
central CONUS ridge, partly via reduced diabatics, as well as the
western trough. This subsequently reduces ridging over the southeast
and the available moisture and warm air going into Tuesday (we`ll
get to that in at bit). Going back to the GEFS and GEPS, the
multiple energy packets remain in-phase of each other amplifying the
wave pattern and subsequent downstream ridging. This provides more
moisture for the southeast going into Tuesday morning.

What does this all mean to us? There is uncertainty in the amount of
moisture and the strength of subtropical shortwave energy on Tuesday
which will impact precipitation/thunderstorm potential. A faster
moving western cut-off low will inhibit moisture transport and
decrease the thunderstorm potential. This could, at the same time,
broaden a shallow troughing pattern enabling an extended period of
precipitation across northwest GA which slowly expands into central
Georgia. The in-phase pattern will likely result in more moisture,
more concentrated dynamic energy, and more organized thunderstorms
potential.

This uncertainty has resulted in an ensemble rainfall spread between
0.5" and 1.5" Through Friday next week; exacerbated by the fact that
north Georgia mean QPF sits at around 1.5" and central GA mean QPF
sits at about 0.5". This could mean the rainfall outlook through
next week will be significantly impacted by upper level outcomes. At
this time, this forecaster does not feel confident enough to
consider severe potential, though thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday and even some showers on Thanksgiving could very well be
in the cards. Stay tuned for further updates.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR to start TAF period at most all sites except CSG. SHRA and
MVFR CIGs expected to move in later on this evening and throughout
the overnight hours. CIGs expected to fall to near or below IFR by
07-09Z. If SHRA isn`t as widespread as expected during overnight,
could see some lower cigs that approach LIFR build in. SHRA
expected to clear by approx 14-16Z, with slow improvement of cigs
into afternoon with VFR conditions after that. Winds W to SW at
5-10 kts overnight, picking up to 10-12 kts with gusts to 20 kts
Saturday afternoon, and then turning WNW to NW at 6-8 kts
Saturday evening.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence in the overnight and Saturday AM CIGs and VIS,
high for all other elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  76  51  71 /  60  20   0   0
Atlanta         63  75  52  71 /  70  30   0   0
Blairsville     56  69  45  66 /  70  40   0   0
Cartersville    61  75  48  70 /  70  40   0   0
Columbus        63  79  53  75 /  40  20   0   0
Gainesville     62  75  51  70 /  70  20   0   0
Macon           61  80  53  76 /  30  20   0   0
Rome            64  78  51  73 /  60  40   0   0
Peachtree City  62  76  50  72 /  70  30   0   0
Vidalia         60  81  56  78 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Culver