115
FXUS62 KFFC 251912
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
312 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Mostly dry for north Georgia and isolated to scattered storms
   across parts of central Georgia today. A few storms could
   produce localized damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected Wednesday
   through the weekend. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
   flooding on Thursday, especially across north Georgia.

 - Generally seasonable temperatures will prevail through the
   weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Georgia sits on the eastern periphery of a 500 mb ridge today,
and by tomorrow (Wednesday) evening, the ridge is progged to
retrograde while 500 mb troughing encompasses the eastern CONUS.
Meanwhile, moisture will increase courtesy of southerly mid-level
flow on the western periphery of the Bermuda High.

Today and Tonight: A stationary front is situated across central
Georgia, generally south of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Swainsboro. It is near and south of this front -- and where
surface low pressure is analyzed -- that isolated to scattered
convection is most likely this afternoon and evening. Ample
instability will be in place in this area, but very little deep-
layer wind shear (850-300 mb mean winds are 5-10 kts) so slow-
moving storms will be capable of dumping heavy rainfall in
concentrated areas -- perhaps as much as 2 inches in a short
period of time, per the HREF 6-hour PMM. Water loading in
downdrafts could produce locally damaging wind gusts in strong or
severe storms. SPC has a Marginal Risk outlined for a sliver of
the southern CWA, including Americus, Abbeville, and Vidalia.
Storms should taper off by 10 PM. As far as heat today goes, highs
will mainly be in the 90s with heat index values peaking around
100-105 degrees in parts of central Georgia.

Tomorrow: Wednesday will bring the potential for isolated to
scattered storms across more of the area, as well as another day
of heat index values ranging from 100 to 105 degrees for many.
CAMs are at odds regarding when diurnal convection begins and its
coverage, but in general, it appears that something of a thermal
gradient along a morning cloud deck could act as a focus for storm
development -- roughly along and south/east of the I-85 corridor.
Additionally, the CAMs show clusters of convection (some as
organized as an MCS/QLCS) progressing across Mississippi,
Tennessee, and Alabama tomorrow night, but a clear signal is
lacking regarding this convection making it eastward into Georgia.
Stay tuned!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Beginning the long term on Thursday, the troughing will be
elongated over the eastern CONUS with a push of vorticity moving
into the area throughout the day as the front is over the north
Georgia area. Current guidance suggests stalling over the I-85
corridor for Thursday. As a result rain chances are in the likely
range as showers and thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon and evening hours. Current soundings show that storms
should stay subsevere but will need to watch for any flooding
concerns with very little shear in the area when these storms
form. With high PWATs in the 1.8-2" range and the storms expected
to form along the flow this could also increase our flooding
threat. WPC has placed the area in a slight ERO as well. Pushing
into Friday, expecting similar conditions with the trough still
fully over our area. Saturday will begin the pattern change with
showers and thunderstorms mostly over the southern half of the
area and ridging beginning to build in over the central and
eastern CONUS. As a result rain chances begin to decrease Sunday
into Tuesday with only 20-30% chances during the afternoon.
Temperatures will be seasonable in the mid 80s to low 90s across
the area through Saturday before beginning to warm slightly into
the mid 90s as riding begins settling in Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

With the exception of BR and low clouds at MCN overnight/early
tomorrow (Wednesday) morning, VFR conditions are expected at all
TAF sites through the forecast period. This afternoon and evening,
winds at ATL may toggle between the W side and E side as a
stationary front is situated across central Georgia. Given the
front`s location, TSRA are a possibility at MCN and CSG today. FEW
to SCT clouds at 5-7 kft are expected area-wide through the
evening. Have introduced a PROB30 for TSRA at ATL tomorrow
afternoon as conditions become more favorable for convection.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on PROB30 timing at ATL tomorrow.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  92  70  90 /   0  30  30  70
Atlanta         73  93  73  89 /   0  30  30  70
Blairsville     64  85  66  83 /   0  30  30  80
Cartersville    70  93  71  90 /   0  20  30  70
Columbus        73  94  74  92 /  10  30  20  70
Gainesville     69  90  70  88 /   0  30  30  70
Macon           72  93  72  91 /  20  40  30  70
Rome            68  93  70  89 /   0  10  30  70
Peachtree City  70  93  71  89 /   0  30  30  80
Vidalia         72  92  72  93 /  30  70  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Martin