199
FXUS62 KFFC 150702
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
302 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Key Messages:

- Patchy fog and reduced visibilities possible this morning in
      areas where grounds are saturated from rainfall.

- Scattered late afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today
   across north and central Georgia with the main threats being
   gusty winds (40-50mph), and frequent lightning.

- Saturated soils and increased rainfall through Monday leading
     to an increased risk for localized flooding.

After the rainfall yesterday evening, still seeing a few isolated
lingering showers across the area this morning but those should
come to an end over the next couple of hours. Areas where soils
are already saturated by rainfall could see patchy fog this
morning especially in low lying areas. The rest of this discussion
will feel like a bit of a repeat. Southwesterly flow continues
through the weekend into Monday as the area sits between Bermuda
high pressure to the east and troughing to the west. This
southwesterly flow contributes to the higher than normal PWATs for
the area and thus leading to enough moisture to support
afternoon/evening diurnally driven convection. In addition these
higher PWATs are helping to enhance the potential for localized
flooding with these storms already proven to be efficient
rainfall producers. The main setup for today looks to be more
scattered in nature as the troughing to our north begins to absorb
into the overall flow. As it sits just north of the area,
convection will be enhanced over the north Georgia area as a
result. For central and eastern Georgia, the daily sea breeze will
be the main factor in these storms popping this evening. CAPE
values across the area range from 1500-2500 J/kg with little to no
shear. Thus these storms will likely be sub severe in nature that
pop up with no real movement (outflow dominant). Will need to
watch for any flooding concerns today with the lack of movement
expected from these efficient rainfall producers. Monday,
expecting much of the same weather in a rinse and repeat forecast
as the southwesterly flow continues into the week.


Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

At a glance:

- Thunderstorms expected every afternoon through the long term.

- Flash flooding concerns may start to increase without a break
     from daily thunderstorms.

- Dewpoints in the 70s will make everyone`s life miserable.

Normally we see some kind of signal over the course of the long term
that would suggest a break in a rainy pattern. I`m not seeing one.
We appear to be locked into an upper level fire hose due to the
position of lingering high pressure just off the Florida coast. It`s
channeling continuous moisture out of the gulf and feeding our
diurnal thunderstorm pattern. This mess is expected to continue
through the work week and given the frequency and dewpoints in the
70s; flooding will likely start to become more of a concern
especially given any training storm pattern that sets up.

Temperatures will gradually be on the rise through the week as well.
We`ll start Monday off in the upper 80s and slowly work our way into
the 90s by Friday. The combination of temps and dewpoints could
cause some heat related risks in the far southern parts of our CWA.
The heat risk could be mitigated by afternoon storms to cool things
off, but regardless it`s that time of year where paying attention to
the heat is a good idea if you`re going to be outside.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Lingering showers and thunderstorms have pushed eastward away from
the TAF sites for the most part. Low CIGs are beginning to filter
in at ~500-700ft and should become more prevalent by 08-09z. IFR
CIGS should stick around until mid morning when MVFR is expected
before becoming VFR ahead of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
tomorrow. Best timing is between 20z-01z with the potential for
lingering showers past 01z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  70  89  71 /  50  20  60  30
Atlanta         87  70  88  73 /  50  30  70  30
Blairsville     82  64  82  65 /  70  30  80  40
Cartersville    87  69  87  70 /  60  30  80  40
Columbus        90  71  91  73 /  60  30  70  20
Gainesville     85  70  87  71 /  60  30  70  30
Macon           90  70  91  72 /  60  30  60  20
Rome            86  69  87  70 /  60  30  80  40
Peachtree City  88  69  89  70 /  50  30  70  20
Vidalia         90  73  92  74 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Hernandez