955
FXUS62 KFFC 172341
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 741 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

- Dry conditions expected to continue through Saturday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Sunday ahead of
      a cold front. A few storms may be strong. Rainfall totals
      generally less than one inch are expected.

- Cool, dry, and seasonable conditions expected midweek
      following the passage of a second, weaker front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Some fair weather clouds developing across the area this afternoon
which is about the most we`ve seen all week. Things are beginning to
change as the next frontal system to affect our area begins t o
develop across the southern and central Plains. High pressure
centered over the Carolinas is still keeping things dry for GA but
this ridge is loosing its strength on the region. The ridge center
is expected to move off the GA/SC/NC coast by Sat morning and
continue to move east through Sunday. This will allow the developing
frontal boundary to move east and push into the Mid to Lower MS
river valley Sat/Sat night. As the front moves this directing,
southwesterly flow sets up across GA with increased moisture from
the gulf moving in. We will see mainly increased clouds across the
state Sat with precip moving into the area just before Sunrise Sun.
This SWRLY flow will also help to increase temps across the state
Sat with highs mainly in the 80s across north and central GA. Will
also see increased cloud cover with the moist SWRLY flow so low
temps Sat night will only dip down into the 60s. This increased
moisture and slightly elevated temps ahead of the next frontal
system will prime the atmosphere giving better precip chances Sunday
as it pushes through the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A highly amplified upper level flow pattern will be in place across
the CONUS as the extended period begins on Sunday. A longwave trough
will extend from the western Great Lakes as far south as the central
Gulf coast as the morning begins. Over the course of the day, this
trough will quickly move east-northeast and gain a negative tilt.
Meanwhile, an associated surface low will quickly intensify as it
move northeast from Lake Michigan into eastern Canada, at which
point a cold front extending southward from the low will sweep
through north and central Georgia. Numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms will enter the north and west portions of the forecast
area in the pre-dawn hours, which will then spread south and east
through the morning into the afternoon. The rain, while welcome, is
not expected to make a significant impact on the developing drought
conditions in the area. With the fast west to east motion of the
front, rainfall totals are forecast to range from 0.5-1" in areas
roughly north of I-20 and 0.25-0.5" to the south. Uncertainty still
remains regarding the chances of strong to severe thunderstorms
throughout the day, which will depend on the alignment of
instability and atmospheric dynamics.

In the morning hours, the frontal boundary will be closely aligned
under the southern fringes of the stronger flow aloft associated
with the trough. Deep layer bulk shear values of 40-50 kts oriented
nearly parallel to the front will favor a linear mode of showers and
storms. instability will be the limiting factor in the morning
hours, but even marginal destabilization with MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg
would allow for a few storms within the line to become strong and
capable of producing wind gusts of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning.
In the afternoon, the front will push towards east and central
Georgia, where diurnal heating in a relatively untapped airmass will
contribute to MUCAPE values between 400-800 J/kg. However, while
instability will be greater, the stronger flow aloft will be
displaced to the northeast due to the progression of the trough, and
forcing ahead of the front will be weakening as the parent low
continues to move further away to the northeast. This will
contribute to diminishing shear values and a more scattered/less
organized coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Still, the aforementioned increasing MUCAPE combined with 0-1 km
shear of 25-30 kts and deep layer bulk shear of about 40 kts
immediately ahead of the front could come together for a few strong
storms in the afternoon hours, as well. At this time, SPC maintains
a General Thunderstorm risk for a few strong but ultimately sub-
severe storms, though this could change if parameters trend towards
better alignment in ensuing forecast updates.

Rain chances will come to an end by Sunday night as cool
northwesterly flow overspreads the forecast area. Temperatures
overnight into Monday morning will drop into the low 40s to mid 40s
in north Georgia and upper 40s in central Georgia. Higher elevations
of far northeast Georgia could furthermore see their first upper 30s
of the season. As the upper trough cuts off and continues to move
away to the northeast, a ridge and associated surface high will set
up over the Southeast during the daytime. Monday will look like the
platonic ideal of a fall day, with highs in the 70s under clear
skies.

On Tuesday, this high will drift east towards the Atlantic coast,
though continued subsidence underneath will keep conditions dry and
benign. Both low and high temperatures are expected to increase by a
few degrees with the lingering influence of the high. Though highs
will rebound into the mid to upper 70s in north Georgia and low 8-s
in central Georgia on Tuesday, a long term warming trend is not
expected -- as a cutoff low moves through the Great Lakes region,
another cold front is expected to push southeastward through the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Any rain ahead of this
front is looking increasingly unlikely with meager moisture aloft
unable to overcome the dry air remaining at the low levels. Cooler
air behind this front combined with another surface high setting up
over the Southeast will promote cool and crisp conditions through
the end of the period, with little to no rain chances through at
least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Quiet conditions continue with widespread VFR through the overnight
hours. A SCT CU field is expected after 15Z, but CIGS aren`t
expected to fall into MVFR. Winds will remain SE at less than
10kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  80  59  74 /   0   0  10  60
Atlanta         61  82  63  76 /   0   0  20  70
Blairsville     53  76  57  65 /   0  10  40  80
Cartersville    61  83  62  74 /   0  10  50  70
Columbus        61  85  63  80 /   0   0  20  70
Gainesville     57  80  61  72 /   0   0  20  70
Macon           54  83  59  79 /   0   0   0  60
Rome            61  86  64  75 /   0   0  60  70
Peachtree City  58  82  62  77 /   0   0  20  70
Vidalia         55  83  58  82 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Vaughn