455
FXUS62 KFFC 171738
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
138 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered late afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
   today across north and central Georgia through Wednesday with
   the main threats being gusty winds (40-50mph), and frequent
   lightning.

 - Saturated soils and waves of rainfall through Wednesday
   leading to an increased risk for localized flooding.

Lingering showers have come to an end for the most part across
the area with only a couple of isolated showers in eastern
Georgia. Areas where soils are already saturated by rainfall
could see patchy fog this morning especially in low lying areas.
Low clouds will be less likely over the areas that didn`t receive
as much rainfall yesterday though. Already seeing ceiling close to
200 ft to our west, so still expecting those to filter in through
the next couple of hours. Southwesterly flow continues through
Wednesday as the area sits between Bermuda high pressure to the
east and troughing to the west. This southwesterly flow
contributes to the higher than normal PWATs for the area and thus
leading to enough moisture to support afternoon/evening diurnally
driven convection. In addition these higher PWATs are helping to
enhance the potential for localized flooding with these storms
already proven to be efficient rainfall producers. Today, the
a short wave trough pushes eastward from the main flow resulting
in an area of forcing for the thunderstorms this late afternoon
into the evening (~3-10pm). CAMs are continuing to pick up on a
cluster of thunderstorms moving eastward into northwest Georgia
from north Alabama during this timeframe so have kept PoPs higher
in north Georgia to account for this. CAPE values Tuesday range
from 1800-2800 J/kg and deep layer shear values are closer to
20-25kt with much of it focused in the 0-1km area as the upper
levels remain weaker with steering. This setup will be conducive
to gusty winds (40-50mph) and frequent lightning but overall
likely to stay subsevere for the most part. Cannot rule out a
severe storm or two though with the main threat being stronger
wind gusts (up to 60mph) if able to tap into the marginal DCAPE
values (700-800 J/kg).

For tomorrow, the short wave trough will have had enough time to
absorb into the overall flow with the overall southwesterly flow
setting up again. The Bermuda high does look to become marginally
stronger pushing into eastern and central Georgia which will
ultimately limit rain chances for Wednesday to north Georgia
which is solidly in between the flow. Have accounted for this in
the PoPs with higher amounts in the north. Any convection for
Wednesday to be more scattered in nature as there is no real main
driving force except the diurnally produced pop up storms. With
CAPE values at 1000-1500J/kg and near 0 shear values, not
expecting storms to be severe with only lightning and gusty winds
as the main threats. Thus these storms will likely be sub severe
in nature that pop up with no real movement (outflow dominant).

Temperatures continue to climb into Wednesday as the high pressure
begins to push further in but continued southwesterly flow brings
in warm moist air. Expecting highs to top out at 88-94 across the
area for the most part with lows in the low to mid 70s. Elevated
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will allow for apparent Ts to
reach the mid to upper 90s across much of the area along and south
of I-85 with area of triple digit heat indices closer to Toombs
county.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 212 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

At a glance:

- Afternoon thunderstorms will likely continue through the rest of
the week and into the weekend; but coverage may decrease.

- Temperatures will steadily rise, and heat indices could rise into
the triple digits.

We`ll start the long term out with summer like conditions.
Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s which will continue
to fuel our afternoon thunderstorms through the rest of the work
week. We`re not seeing a signal for any widespread severe weather or
outbreak but we do expect to have a busy radar shift through the end
of this forecast period and beyond.

Both models have come into better agreement that a High pressure
will build over the top of the SE toward the end of the weekend. It
may help put a lid on thunderstorms but the heat dome will likely
cause temperatures to continue to rise. Temps are expected to
increase into the mid 90s. We`ll need to keep an eye on the heat
indices as triple digits are looking likely.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Mostly VFR through day with sct to bkn cu field around 3-4kft.
Clusters of shra/tsra develop this afternoon generally out of the
west. Best timing 21z-02z timeframe, with isolated possible after
2z. SCT low clouds tomorrow morning, especially in areas that
receive rainfall this afternoon, could be BKN at times. TSRA
chances return Wednesday afternoon. Winds W to SW through period,
could gust to 20kts this afternoon.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High all elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  71  90  71 /  50  30  30  20
Atlanta         88  71  89  73 /  50  20  40  20
Blairsville     83  65  83  65 /  60  60  70  40
Cartersville    88  70  88  70 /  50  50  50  30
Columbus        90  72  92  73 /  50  10  30  10
Gainesville     87  70  87  71 /  60  40  50  30
Macon           91  71  92  73 /  50  10  20  10
Rome            87  70  87  70 /  60  50  60  30
Peachtree City  89  70  90  71 /  50  20  40  10
Vidalia         93  73  94  75 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SM