388
FXUS62 KFFC 171853
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
    possible across portions of north Georgia through late this
    evening.

  - Drier air will bring slightly cooler conditions to north
    Georgia on Tuesday, though a Heat Advisory will remain in
    effect for most of central Georgia through Tuesday evening.

  - Thunderstorm chances will be limited Tuesday through
    Thursday, then increase somewhat late this week into the
    weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Today`s stifling heat will lead into the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms in parts of north Georgia as we head into
this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are initially expected to
expand by late this afternoon across parts of Tennessee into the
Appalachians as a frontal boundary as well as outflow boundaries
associated with an earlier thunderstorm complex drop southeastward
into a destabilizing environment. Abundant instability
characterized by SBCAPE already analyzed in excess of 3000 J/kg
will provide plenty of fuel for thunderstorm maintenance. CAMs are
in fairly good agreement that storms could form into line
segments along outflow that would present a substantial risk for
damaging wind gusts given DCAPE in the range of 1000-1500 J/kg.
These storms could potentially make it as far south as I-20 by
late evening (though confidence in southward extent remains low),
especially if aided by cold-pool forward propagation before
encountering a less favorable environment by around midnight
farther south. SPC maintains a Slight Risk that covers far north
Georgia with an attendant Marginal Risk farther south to the I-20
corridor to highlight this risk.

As far as the heat is concerned, a Heat Advisory remains in
effect for all areas outside of the mountains through 8 PM this
evening as widespread heat index values in excess of 105 will
remain commonplace. The good news is that a bit of a "cooldown"
will be in the near future on Tuesday as noticeably drier air will
filter into north Georgia in the wake of the frontal boundary.
While highs will still reach the low-to-mid 90s in these areas,
today`s 70s dewpoints will be replaced by dewpoints in the 60s.
This drier airmass will keep afternoon heat index values from
nearing Heat Advisory criteria across north Georgia on Tuesday.
Unfortunately for the Middle Georgia folks, muggy 70s dewpoints
will remain in place for you, resulting in another day with a Heat
Advisory and heat index values 105-109 on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The main story for the long term period will be oppressive heat
for parts of the area later this week, courtesy of a lingering
mid-level ridge and advection of warm 850 mb air from the southern
Great Plains. At this time, Thursday and Friday may necessitate
Heat Advisory issuances given progged heat index values of 105-109
degrees across at least parts of central Georgia. Thursday is
shaping up to be the hotter of the two days, with actual air
temperatures progged to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s from the
northern Atlanta metro to areas south.

A large-scale pattern change will begin on Friday and continue
into the weekend. An amplifying upper-level ridge over the West
will induce expansive troughing over the East. Coupled with
increasing low-level and mid-level moisture, the environment
should support isolated to scattered convection across at least
parts of the area on Friday and Saturday. Instability should be
plentiful (with caveats being increased cloud cover and capping)
but at this time, deep-layer shear looks to be lacking. In the
absence of convection growing upscale, hazards should be typical
of summertime "popcorn" storms -- localized gusty winds, heavy
rainfall, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

A "cold" front (honestly, more accurately described as a moisture
gradient) will work through the area from northwest to southeast
between Saturday and Sunday. While the timing of the front`s
passage is somewhat uncertain, ensemble guidance signals that rain
chances will be relegated to central Georgia on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside of sct TSRA this afternoon
and evening, primarily at ATL area sites 22-02Z. Winds will remain
W to NW at 5-10 kts, though gusty winds in and near TSRA are
possible.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA potential.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          76  96  72  97 /  20   0   0   0
Atlanta         77  94  72  95 /  20   0   0   0
Blairsville     69  86  64  89 /  30   0   0   0
Cartersville    74  93  68  95 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus        78  96  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     75  93  71  95 /  20   0   0   0
Macon           77  96  73  96 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            74  92  68  96 /  30   0   0   0
Peachtree City  75  94  69  95 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         79  99  75  99 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011-012-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>071-075-078-079.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ072>074-076-080>086-
089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...RW