227
FXUS62 KFFC 240952
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
552 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A Flood Watch remains in effect through late Friday evening
    across portions of north Georgia.

  - The threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will
    remain elevated across north Georgia through Saturday in the
    presence of a stalled front.

  - Heat concerns rebound in earnest next week with an upward
    trend in temperatures and heat indices by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A flood watch remains in effect for northern Georgia until early
Saturday morning. A stationary front will provide a source of lift
until Saturday afternoon along and north of a line from I-20. Rain
amounts between 1-3" are expected though a few isolated areas may
see amounts exceeding 4". The watch is largely dependent on how far
south the front sinks and may need to expand south over the next 12
hours. So far the area of heaviest rain has fallen along a line from
Marietta to Athens, and as a result we`ll continue to monitor this
area closely for a flooding threat.

WPC maintains a slight ERO risk for the area, and continued
coordination with them will help us determine whether or not to
extend the flood watch into Saturday. We`ll have to hold on until a
cold front clears the boundary out on Sunday.

Temperatures should be moderated during this time period to the 80s
and low 90s, with the highest temps across the southern portion of
the CWA. Little victories.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The overall pattern as we move into the new workweek will see a
broad and deep high pressure system remain parked over the southern
Plains and a deep layer trough dominate the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeastern states.  This pattern will remain in place through the
end of the week.  This will result in a sustained northerly flow
pattern across the forecast area.  As this northerly flow regime
takes hold, drier air will advect into the mid and upper levels, and
this will help push PWATS down to around 1.6 to 1.7 inches from
Monday through Wednesday.  These values are near average for this
time of year, and indicate that enough moisture will remain in place
in the low levels to support some isolated convective development
each afternoon.  The threat of isolated convective development,
generally once the convective temperature in the mid 90s is reached
in the late afternoon and early evening hours, is further supported
by mid-level lapse rates in excess of 6.5 C/KM and MLCAPE in excess
of 1500 J/KG each afternoon. One of the bigger concerns with these
isolated convective cells is the potential for strong to
occasionally severe thunderstorm wind gusts occurring as the cells
entrain the dry mid-level air into their updrafts.  Evaporative
cooling within the updraft could occur, and this could support a few
microburst events each day as the cooler and heavier air exceeds the
updraft strength resulting in thunderstorm collapse.  DCAPE values
of 1100 to 1300 J/KG support this concern.

Before the convection develops, temperatures will climb into the mid
90s south of the fall line and into the upper 80s and lower 90s
north of the fall line in the North Georgia mountains.  Conditions
will remain very humid in the low levels, so heat index values will
easily climb to 100 to 103 on Monday and then rise further to 103 to
108 on Tuesday and Wednesday from I-85 southward, including metro
Atlanta.  Heat advisories will likely be needed as we move into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

All of the medium range guidance is in good agreement that
reinforcing and much stronger northern stream trough will dig into
the eastern seaboard on Thursday and Friday.  This will drive a very
strong front for late July through the region Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night.  Behind the front, a very dry airmass as noted by
PWATS falling to around an inch, or near the 10th percentile for
this time of year, will move into the area.  This will effectively
kill off any rain chances due to a lack of moisture and instability.
Although temperatures will remain near average, heat index values
will fall back below advisory levels and range closer to 100 degrees
on Thursday and Friday.  Overnight lows may also feel almost
pleasant as readings dip into the 60s in the mountains and lower 70s
from Atlanta southward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

SHRA remains in the vicinity this morning, and will continue
through the TAF cycle. Rain will become prevailing after 15Z with
a chance for TSRA between 17-22Z. SCT MVFR cigs will continue with
brief periods of IFR possible through 18Z. Winds will be SSW at
less than 5kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium on IFR Cigs
High on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  71  87  71 /  80  60  20  10
Atlanta         87  73  87  73 /  90  30  40  20
Blairsville     80  66  81  66 /  90  50  20  20
Cartersville    86  72  87  72 /  90  30  30  30
Columbus        94  76  91  75 /  40  20  50  40
Gainesville     83  72  86  72 /  90  50  30  10
Macon           93  74  91  73 /  40  20  50  20
Rome            86  71  86  71 /  90  20  40  50
Peachtree City  88  72  88  72 /  80  20  50  30
Vidalia         97  75  93  74 /  20  20  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>024-
030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Vaughn