445
FXUS62 KFFC 221920
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
220 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Showers have mostly dissipated with scattered tall cumulus
   across much of the area. Any further accumulations will be
   isolated and limited.

 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through the middle of
   next week.

 - Rain chances are likely to make a return between Tuesday and
   Thursday. Amounts range from less than 0.5" south of I85 and
   potentially up to near 2.0" in far north Georgia.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Current satellite loop shows clouds diminishing across the area from
NW to SE as the frontal boundary moves through. The boundary looks
like it is right around the MCN area and is expected to continue
moving south of the area through tonight. Can see a drier airmass is
pushing into NW GA as Dewpoints continue to fall across the area
under strong NW flow behind the front. Winds are sustained in the 8-
12kt range with gust 20-25kt behind the front. The winds should stay
fairly elevated overnight but not expecting any gust after sunset.
Skies will continue to clear tonight with slightly cooler temps
expected also. Will see low temps tonight mainly in the 50s. Highs
Sunday will still be on the warm side just a few deg less than
Today. Lows Sun night will dip back down into the 40s with some 30s
in the North GA mountains. Not expecting any more precip in the
short term but things will be a bit different in the extended
periods.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

For an in depth look at the failure modes and uncertainties in the
forecast, please reference yesterday afternoons EOF forecast
discussion. That said, ensembles have begun to coalesce on a more
unified solution beginning monday and continuing through Friday. The
cut-off low over the southwest seems to favor the more progressive
solution with an undercutting of the great plains ridge Monday into
Tuesday. This also leads to a quicker initiation of precipitation
across northwest GA as early as Tuesday morning with a messy line of
showers and thunderstorms moving NW to E. Ensemble CAPE values show
high agreement in between 100 and 500 J/Kg with a quick taper off in
probs at higher values. PWATs upwards of 1.5" would be in excess of
the 90th percentile for this time of year. These two factors,
combined with modest bulk shear, presents more as an efficient rain
producer. The line itself will likely be a slow moving feature as
the surface front, well away from the parent low, will drag across
the state. Steady rainfall over the course of Tuesday and Wednesday
will be greatly welcomed. Total precipitation amounts Tuesday
through Thursday will likely be between 0.75" and 2.0" along and
North of I85 and between 0.25" and 1.0" south of I85. Variations in
precipitation coverage is likely given the potentially patchy nature
of the line. Temperatures remain elevated ahead of and along the
front with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 50s to near 60.

Moving into Thanksgiving, conditions will be drying out as the rain
chances clear Wednesday night. Highs each day, Thursday onward, will
drop into the 50s and 60s (40s for north GA mountains). Lows could
see a return to near or below freezing temps, however this will be
highly dependent on the secondary drop reinforcement behind the
front, which remains uncertain.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Clouds diminishing but still seeing some MVFR to VFR readings
across the area. Clouds are expected to continue to diminish and
clear out tonight and stay VFR through the rest of the period.
Winds are out of the W to NW in the 6-12kt range with gust to
20kt. Winds will weaken overnight into the 4-8kt range with
enhanced speeds and gust again Sun afternoon. May see a few
isolated showers as the front continues to move through the area,
but not expecting them to affect the TAF sites. No restrictions
to VSBYs expected.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  72  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         54  71  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     46  66  39  63 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    50  70  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        54  75  48  77 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     52  72  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           54  76  47  76 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            53  72  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  52  72  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         59  79  50  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...01