593
FXUS62 KFFC 160714
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions continue, with no rainfall expected
   the rest of the work week.

 - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late weekend, with
   rainfall totals generally less than half of an inch.

 - A second, weaker frontal passage on Wednesday will usher in
   cooler and drier conditions areawide.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

High pressure continues to be the main story through Friday at
this point before a pattern change comes in the long term. Upper
level ridging observed over much of the central CONUS extending
southward into the gulf, translates into a large area of high
pressure at the surface centered over the central and southern
CONUS. As a result, clear skies and dry conditions will continue
to be observed over north and central Georgia allowing for
temperatures to reach into the low to mid 80s again for today.
Although we are at 9-10 degrees above normal for this time of
year, high temps should remain below records. Low temps in the low
to mid 50s are expected the next two mornings. Much of the same
weather is expected for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

By the start of the extended range on Saturday, high amplitude
ridging at the mid-levels and high pressure at the surface across
much of ECONUS will be gradually nudged offshore by an advancing
trough lifting across the Great Lakes. Surface winds will veer to
the southeast over the course of the day, with subsequent moisture
advection supporting dewpoints returning to the upper 50s to
lower 60s (and in the 60s areawide by Sunday). Despite this,
Saturday looks to remain mostly -- if not totally dry -- under the
final vestiges of subsidence.

As the aforementioned trough deepens and closes off, an attendant
cold front is progged to sweep southeastward across the forecast
area throughout the day Sunday. Expect scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms to overspread portions of north Georgia beginning
early Sunday morning, filtering further south through the afternoon
while decreasing in coverage. With the parent low well to the north,
best chances for any severe weather will be upstream across the Mid-
South, and forcing is likely to fizzle out around the midsection of
the state (even when taking into account any extra oomph provided by
daytime heating). That said, meager instability and bolstered shear
could allow for an isolated strong to marginally severe storm --
trends/timing will need to be monitored as this event approaches the
short term. Rainfall totals will be scant (and have continued to
trend downward over the past 24 hours), between 0.25 and 0.5" north
of I-20, and less than 0.25" to the south. Further, locations to the
south and east of Macon may see Sunday pass with no accumulation.
Needless to say, not expecting a drought-buster by any means.

Behind the front, additional stout mid-level ridging/surface high
pressure will take up residence across the Southeast, lingering
through midweek when yet another weak front looks to move through.
Expect a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air in its wake.

Highs pre-front Saturday will be quite warm, in the low-to-mid 80s
areawide. On Sunday, a more defined gradient in temperature is
likely, owing to frontal progression before peak heating is
realized: in the 70s north of I-20 and in the low-to-mid 80s to the
south. Beyond that, highs will generally remain in the 70s to lower-
80s. Crisp mornings are likely for a majority of the extended, where
morning lows will fall into the mid-40s to mid-50s -- the coolest of
the season thus far.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Another SKC day today with winds switching to the NE by ~07-08z
before turning more easterly by 00z. Speeds remain at 7kt or less.
Low confidence in the potential for low end MVFR VSBYs for KMCN
from 10-12z this morning.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence in all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          77  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         81  56  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     76  49  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    82  55  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        85  58  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     78  53  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           82  53  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            84  54  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  81  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         82  53  79  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Hernandez