369
FXUS62 KFFC 120646
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through
  daybreak, becoming scattered to numerous in coverage into the
  afternoon. Any storms that form will be capable of producing
  gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall will support localized flash
  flooding concerns today, similar to yesterday. Isolated amounts
  up to 3 to 4" could fall within an hour or two in the strongest
  cells.

- Comparatively hot and humid conditions will return from Sunday
  on, with diminishing rain chances (<20%).


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Over the course of the day today, a shortwave traversing otherwise
quasi-zonal flow at the mid-levels will clip the state from the
northwest. The combination of this and a steady stream of moist,
southwesterly flow around the Bermuda High at the surface will
support the development of waves of showers and thunderstorms
beginning this morning and carrying into the afternoon. Last
night`s 00Z FFC sounding analyzed PWATs of 2.02" -- well exceeding
the 90th percentile climatologically, and perhaps even daily
maximums. Overall blanket rainfall totals remain low for today
(up to three-quarters of an inch), but a high PWAT environment
with chances for training/multiple rounds of heavy rainfall means
at least an outside chance for localized flash flooding concerns
-- with low predictability on exactly where high value bullseyes
 occur. Localized amounts up to 5" were recorded yesterday, and
 with near-negligible changes to our parameter space, isolated
 amounts of 3-4" and perhaps higher are possible. Notably, these
 totals could be realized over the course of an hour or two, more
 than sufficient to overwhelm creeks, streams, and storm drains.
 Chances for organized severe weather remain low given
 unremarkable sounding profiles and kinematics, but with saturated
 soils from yesterday`s rainfall (and minimal recovery time in
 between rounds), cannot rule out isolated reports of downed
 trees even in sub-severe gusts. Highs will be in the mid-80s to
 lower 90s today, just a bit lower than yesterday owing to the
 glancing blow from yesterday`s front and increased convective
 coverage.

As mid-level ridging moves in aloft on Sunday, meaningful
precipitation chances will be effaced by strengthening subsidence.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across our far southern tier, in
the vicinity of a lingering tendril of increased moisture, but most
will see a dry (if hot) end to the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

As the long term period begins on Sunday night, an upper level ridge
over the south-central CONUS will be slowly building eastward. This
ridge and associated surface high pressure will amplify and set up
over the east CONUS during the early parts of next week. Low level
moisture from the Gulf will persist across north and central
Georgia, though dewpoints are forecast to drop slightly into the
upper 60s to low 70s with subsidence of drier air from the mid
levels under the ridge. This will also inhibit rain chances, with
isolated afternoon thunderstorms being largely confined to south-
central Georgia on Monday through Wednesday. Conditions across north
and central Georgia are expected to be warmest on Monday, rising
into the mid 90s across all but the far northeastern mountains. Heat
index values are moreover forecast to climb to between 100-103
degrees in areas south of I-85.

The axis of the ridge will begin to shift northeast of the forecast
area on Tuesday into Wednesday, with the associated surface high
moving over the central Appalachians. As this occurs, it will spread
a CAD wedge into portions of northeast Georgia, leading to slightly
lower dewpoints and high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s in the
far northeast and low 90s elsewhere across the forecast area. Rain
chances will remain minimal on Tuesday and Wednesday under the
ridge, but will begin to rebound during the late parts of the week
as the ridge begins to retrograde back to the west of the area.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A tricky TAF pd. BKN IFR cigs to linger thru 15-16Z, with pds of
TWRINC psbl in absence of SHRA/TSRA. Low cigs likely to be
accompanied by MVFR vsbys in BR. Gradual improvement to MVFR by
16-18Z. At minimum VC and likely prevailing -SHRA to return by
10Z, with chcs for isold embd TSRA captured by TEMPO from 11-15Z.
Brief lull psbl midday, then a return to chcs for TSRA impacts
from 18-24Z before clearing occurs overnight. Winds very nearly
due S/at times VRB will pick up out of the SW at 4-8kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  69  91  68 /  80  30   0   0
Atlanta         86  72  91  71 /  80  20   0   0
Blairsville     79  65  84  63 /  80  30   0   0
Cartersville    86  70  91  68 /  60  20   0   0
Columbus        89  72  93  72 /  70  20   0   0
Gainesville     83  70  89  69 /  80  20   0   0
Macon           89  71  92  71 /  80  30  20   0
Rome            87  68  91  67 /  60  20   0   0
Peachtree City  87  70  92  69 /  70  10   0   0
Vidalia         91  73  92  73 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96