160
FXUS62 KFFC 161054
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
654 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Key Messages:

  - Isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms each afternoon.
Heavy rainfall will be the main concern, though strong gusty winds
and frequent lightning will also be hazards.

  - Heat index values between 100 and 105 will pose a risk to those
most vulnerable and those spending extended periods outside.

The disturbance moving into the gulf continues to drift westward and
now has a 40% chance of development over the next several days.
Southerly flow around the system will continue to drive moisture
into the area and weakening the suppressive ridge further. Afternoon
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. The
highest chances will be in the southwest and far north CWA.
Thunderstorms will be efficient rain makers and could lead to
localized ponding on roadways and even some isolated flash flooding.
Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be hazards with any
thunderstorm, per usual.

Another concern to watch for will be heat indices through the
period. Dewpoints as high as the mid 70s and highs in the low to mid
90s will drive heat indices between 100 and 105. Some areas could
see values of 105+, however these will likely be short lived and
localized. Unfortunately no relief from the heat is in the near term.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Key Messages:

  - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through much of the long
term and into the weekend.

  - Monitoring the weekend heat. Models continue to indicate temps
in the mid to upper 90s in many places, which will bring heat
indices well into the triple digits.

Forecast:

PoPs continue to have a slight downward trend Friday and into the
weekend compared to previous forecasts. Confidence is pretty high
that the tropical disturbance currently entering the Gulf will
progress to the west underneath our dirty ridge and slide onshore
somewhere near the Mississippi River Delta. The slug of moisture
associated with this, with PWATs likely well over 2", should remain
just to our west underneath the broader circulation of the system,
regardless of whether or not it is able to develop into a tropical
system. This doesn`t mean no rain for us - just more isolated to
scattered thunderstorm chances, rather than more widespread rainfall
chances.

The downside of lowered rainfall chances is we`ve got a subtropical
ridge in place with plenty of surface moisture still sitting around.
Do you like temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in
the 70s? Do you love the feeling of your shirt sticking to you
within 5 minutes of being outside? Hope so if you are around the
metro and points east and south, because these temps and dewpoints
will likely be locked in through the whole weekend and possibly even
early next week. Definitely will be watching this time period
closely for heat advisories.

Going into next week, subtropical ridge looks to remain entrenched
over the southeast as the tropical disturbance spins down to the
west. Moisture remains, so expect more diurnally driven convection
most days. Little reason to believe the heat is going to go anywhere
either.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Low cig coverage has underperformed previous forecasts though MVFR
and IFR conditions continue to spread this morning likely through
14z. FEW to SCT 015 in metro at the moment. Winds out of the SE
today at at 3 to 8 kts. Iso to sct -tsra possible area wide, but
most likely near CSG and MCN areas. Low cigs possible again
tonight into tomorrow. Models have been trending down in low cig
coverage.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence thunderstorm coverage today.
Medium confidence cigs this morning and tonight.
High confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  73  93  74 /  20  20  30  10
Atlanta         91  75  93  75 /  20  10  30  10
Blairsville     86  68  87  68 /  40  30  50  30
Cartersville    93  74  94  74 /  20  10  30  20
Columbus        91  74  93  74 /  50  10  40  10
Gainesville     91  73  92  75 /  20  20  30  20
Macon           93  74  94  74 /  30  10  30  10
Rome            93  73  93  73 /  20  10  30  20
Peachtree City  91  72  93  72 /  20  10  30  10
Vidalia         93  75  95  76 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...SM