370
FXUS62 KFFC 270556
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
156 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - An MCS is still possible in portions of Georgia, particularly
    north Georgia this morning. Thunderstorms, some of which may
    be strong to severe, are possible.

  - The main threat from thunderstorms will be gusty winds,
    locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

  - Heat concerns rebound this week. Heat index values in excess
    of 100 are expected by Monday with values possibly exceeding
    105 on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

GOES satellite imagery shows the front, which has plagued the state
for the last few days, has begun to shift southward into southern
GA. Light to moderate showers in west central GA have begun their
downward trend and clouds have begun to clear out with daytime
heating.

Also present in the satellite visible imagery is the upper level
ridge located over the Southern and Central Plains. Cloud motion
shows the upper level NW flow descending from middle TN and the Ohio
River Valley. This will prime us for the weather over the coming
days as any upstream system is dumped into North and Central AL.
CAMS have slowly caught onto the development of a system late
tonight into early Monday. Clearing conditions going into this
afternoon will develop a corridor of instability which will act as a
guide for any MCS which manages to develop overnight. Any system
which does develop an organized cold-pool will be capable of gusty
to damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The most uncertainty comes
from the timing, when will the system get to us, and the track, will
the system aim for AL or move more into GA. Models have begun to
converge on a track generally along the AL/GA border if not towards
the ATL metro. Current timing from models (should the system hold
together) brings the MCS into northwest GA as early as 08Z Monday
(4am) and could reach the metro within 2-4 hours from arrival at the
border. Some indicators to watch for going into the evening hours
will be any ridges in the near surface ThetaE and corridors of
elevated CAPE and DCAPE.

Due to the uncertainty in the next 24hrs. The temp forecast will
also be severely impacted. Should the system move further west or
arrive weaker than expected, temperatures on Tuesday may be hot.
Heat Advisory conditions tomorrow afternoon will be dependent on
rain and cloud coverage.

Conditions look even hotter on Tuesday, however further NW flow and
MCS development could significantly impact Tuesday afternoon high
temps. At this time, grids suggest heat indices well within the 105-
110 for all but the north mountains. Stay tuned for any updates on
Severe Outlooks on Tuesday as well as any heat advisories which
could be issued.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Overall pattern sets up with the area east of the high pressure
ridge over the southern Plains and the trough over the northeast
coast. This will put the area in a more northwest/northerly flow
regime into the start of the week. For Tuesday afternoon into the
overnight, SPC has placed portions of northeast Georgia in a slight
risk for severe weather as another potential MCS moves into the
area. This one will have a bit more backing from the front in the
area that begins to push south into Wednesday. This is within the
RRFS and NAM window which are showing uncertainty on how far south
the extent of the severe risk will track. This will be something to
watch and unfortunately is dependent on how any activity Monday and
Tuesday morning evolve.

Into mid-week the ridge begins to push back to the west and break
down a tad pushing our area into a more dry pattern into Friday but
with another trough/low pressure system pushing into the weekend
rain chances again will return Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures Tuesday will be elevated with heat index values in the
105-108 range. Will likely need a heat advisory on Tuesday but
waiting to see how lingering convection/MCSs affect the temperatures
on Tuesday like Monday. These elevated temperatures though will be
conducive for creating an unstable environment ahead of any storm
potential Tuesday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The risk for TSRA is decreasing, as the line of storms with the
potential to impact ATL has shifted to the west. Continued to hold
the PROB30 in to account of uncertainty. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to continue through the overnight hours with low VFR
forming as a CU field after 17Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Low on TSRA chances
High on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  96  75  92 /   0  10  20  10
Atlanta         76  96  77  91 /   0  20  20  10
Blairsville     68  88  68  84 /   0  40  30  10
Cartersville    74  95  74  90 /   0  30  30  20
Columbus        77  98  79  95 /   0   0  10  20
Gainesville     74  95  75  91 /   0  30  10  10
Macon           75  97  78  95 /   0   0  10  20
Rome            74  95  74  90 /   0  30  40  20
Peachtree City  74  96  76  92 /   0  10  20  20
Vidalia         76  99  79  97 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Vaughn