064
FXUS62 KFFC 090532
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
132 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for showers and storms through Monday, with high
  uncertainty in timing, coverage and intensity. The highest
  chances will be across central Georgia.

- A few storms may become strong in portions of central Georgia
  tonight into Saturday morning as well as a low chance Sunday
  afternoon.

- A gradual warming trend through the weekend, with a cool down
  early to mid next week following the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Very light scattered showers remains over the far southern CWA at
this time. These will continue to slowly drift out of the area over
the coming hours. The upper level cloud deck will remain in place
across the CWA as the cold front stalls across the Gulf Coast (and
here it shall remain through the coming days).

Model spread is high through the short term due to uncertainty in
the evolution of mid and low level shortwave driven convection. The
main deciding factor in the progression on rainfall and
thunderstorms will rely heavily on convective initiation further
south, which may cut off the area from moisture at any point over
the coming 48hrs.

For this morning, the main uncertainty seems to be with how far
eastward moisture can be transported around the descending frontal
system to the south. While convective showers appears almost certain
along the surface front, elevated showers may be possible early
Saturday morning across western portions of central GA. A more
aggressive solution is seen in the 00Z HRRR with widespread showers
likely across areas south of I20. This may be overdone as the HRRR
does tend to overmix surface conditions and may be extending the
upward forcing of the sfc front further north than reality. As we
progress through the day today, the evolution of a second low level
shortwave becomes uncertain. Moisture availability will be
significantly impacted by prior precipitation AND the 850 mb flow.
Model 25th to 75th percentile 850mb flow shows a low level jet-like
feature with significant variance in fetch and strength. Solutions
with a stronger and longer 850mb jet are able to transport/recharge
moisture across the area. While weaker and shorter llj features are
less productive. This is seen in the PWAT HREF and NBM ensemble
spread. PWAT spread from 25th to 75th percentile peaks this
afternoon at over 0.5" and ranges from less than 1" to nearly 1.5".
This explains the extreme variance in precipitation production and
the progressiveness of any further southward diving frontal systems
today. Due to the uncertainty, PoPs have been smoothed out through
the day.

The development of any precipitation on Sunday will also be
dependent on shower development as well as how far south the
secondary "front" makes it through the evening today. A more
progressive front yields a drier solution Sunday, while a less
progressive front may pose a scattered to isolated thunderstorms
risk. One thing to watch for will be yet another shortwave which
moves through the area on Sunday afternoon. Post frontal clearing
through Sunday morning may allow for significant destabilization
from diurnal heating. HREF mean SBCAPE currently sits at 800J/Kg
Sunday evening, though this is likely splitting the difference
between models that DO destabilize and those that don`t. In short,
significant uncertainty to prevail. Cannot rule out a few isolated
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, a few potentially strong. Magic 8
ball says "Ask again later".


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Uncertainty continues for the long term forecast thanks to the
complexities of the convective evolution over the coming 24-48
hours. Sunday night into Monday, all models seem to agree on seeing
a lobe of larger TPV over eastern Canada get pushed into the eastern
US via anticyclonic Rossby wave break over the western US/Canada.
This combines with a strung out PV anomaly turned shortwave pushing
across the Great Plains to finally drive a cold front into the
southeast and push out our repeated rounds of rain and storms. The
timing of this front looks to be through the day on Monday, finally
pushing through by Monday night. The challenge is in the details of
the convection and the exact placement of the aforementioned upper
level features, which leads to some big differences in the sensible
weather. The GFS suite leans toward a wet solution, with upper level
lift bringing moisture surging north and giving us a decent rain
with a few rumbles of thunder, while the Euro keeps things a little
more capped, allowing for better thunderstorm chances. All of these
may be dependent on convective evolution of the previous days and
how worked over things are in the upper levels. So, I`d expect some
rain come Monday, but just how much or where is a more difficult
question to answer.

Cold front pushes through and things dry out by Tuesday. Tuesday
morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s across north and central
Georgia, meaning you can`t put those coats away just yet. Afternoon
highs will be in the 70s. Slow warming trend begins after that with
temps remaining in the 70s and 80s. Another western ridge breaking
will drive another shortwave trough towards the southeast on
Wednesday, but the passage of this in Georgia looks to be dry at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Current VFR to fall to MVFR over coming hrs as -shra develop. SHRA
and -TSRA psbl through 16z with patchy IFR cigs. Conditions improve
after 18z with bkn to ovc MVFR to low VFR cigs. Winds vrb overnight
becoming SW at 4 to 8 kts during day. Return to light and VRB
tonight with cigs falling again tngt.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low confidence coverage and timing of precip this morning.
Medium confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  81  60  79 /  10  10  30  50
Atlanta         61  80  62  76 /  10  20  30  40
Blairsville     53  78  55  70 /   0  10  20  30
Cartersville    57  82  59  74 /  10  20  30  40
Columbus        62  82  63  80 /  20  40  40  60
Gainesville     59  80  61  75 /   0  10  20  40
Macon           61  81  62  80 /  30  40  40  70
Rome            55  82  57  74 /   0  10  30  30
Peachtree City  59  81  60  77 /  10  30  30  50
Vidalia         65  82  66  82 /  50  30  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...SM