135
FXUS62 KFFC 061057
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
657 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
  the area Today through Thursday morning. Several storms may be
  severe, capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a
  few tornadoes.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from late Wednesday through Thursday
  morning for portions of North and Central GA where a widespread
  1 to 2 inches of rainfall and localized amounts over 4 inches
  may lead to flooding in poor drainage and flood prone areas.

- Cooler temperatures Thursday into Friday will give way to a
  warming trend through the weekend.



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Low to mid-level flow has turned out of the S to SW and is
bringing in a warm moist airmass. Dewpoints are slowly rising
this morning and should be mainly in the lower 60s by daybreak.
Currently there are no showers across the state but the Hi-Ress
models are showing showers moving into NW GA just before daybreak
this morning. These showers are associated with the approaching
frontal system oriented NE to SW across TN/KY. As the frontal
boundary continues to push southeast into the warm and humid
airmass, it will likely create multiple rounds of widespread
showers and storms across north and central Georgia through
tonight bringing threats for severe weather and flooding.

Severe Weather Potential:

SPC currently has most of north and portions of central GA,
including the Atlanta metro, under a slight risk (Level 2 of 5)
for severe weather during for Today and Tonight. Our initial
severe threat may be Wednesday afternoon as isolated storms could
develop across North GA, though confidence in these storms
developing is low as there won`t be much forcing. The more likely
timeframe for activity is from Wednesday evening into early
Thursday morning as the frontal boundary pushes slowly south through
the area. Models continue to show Capes in the 1000-1500 J/kg
range, with 40-50 kts of effective shear, and low level helicity
of 150-250 m2/s2. A major contributor to these strong shear values
is a screaming southwesterly low level jet that develops after
sunset. Storm modes will likely initially be a combination of
discrete supercells and bowing segments out ahead of the front in
the evening, before merging into an MCS with potentially embedded
supercells overnight. All severe hazards would be possible in this
setup, including damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.
Given the high shear, a strong tornado could not be ruled out
across north GA. There are some factors that could lower the
overall severe threat, like the morning convection across north GA
limiting instability later in the day. Our confidence in the
severe threat continues to increase, so stay tuned for updates!

Flooding Potential:

Our other concern is the potential for localized flash flooding
mainly across North and portions of west central GA. Precipitable
water values are forecast to approach or even exceed 2 ` late
This afternoon into tonight, which would be above the 99th
percentile for this time of year, The very high moisture content
will contribute to efficient rain rates, with storm motion and the
potential training of showers/storms only increasing flood
potential. As a signal of this, the Weather Prediction Center has
most of north and portions of central GA in a Level 2 of 4 risk
for localized flash flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued for
the areas of highest concern, where a widespread 1.5 to 2.5
inches, and localized amounts of 4 inches or more, will lead to
the potential for flooding of poor drainage and urban areas, as
well as creeks and streams prone to flash flooding. Some of you
may be wondering how we could have flooding during a significant
drought, but the very dry/hard grounds can lead to more rapid
runoff and a higher flood threat than soft/wet grounds. One thing
the drought will have an influence on, is that main stem rivers
are low, and will not be at risk for flooding during this event.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Front bringing unsettled weather in the short term is expected to
have mostly cleared the area by Thursday evening. Some lingering
instability main remain around portions of central Georgia with
guidance showing 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE remaining just ahead of the
front around sundown. A few storms may continue to linger across
central Georgia, but the front should accelerate and clear the area
quickly, bringing an end to impactful thunderstorms. Showers and
some stratiform precip may remain.

Cold front will stall just north of the Gulf Coast going into the
end of the week. A split flow pattern aloft will continue to
converge over us into the weekend. This means several waves aloft
will impact the area from both the polar jet to the north and
subtropical jet to the south that will bring chances for continued
rainfall as moisture is lifted over the front with best chances
setting up over central Georgia. Widespread rain with some embedded
storms are likely Saturday evening into Sunday as a cutoff low
ejects out of the desert southwest, though getting the timing down
on these is notoriously difficult for the model guidance. Rain
chances linger into Monday as a broader wave in the northern branch
of the jet pushes by, driving in another cold front that may bring
some cooler air and clearing into the area once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Mainly VFR ceilings this morning but could see some intermittent
MVFR cloud cover between now and 15z. MVFR ceilings move in as
precip moves into the ATL/AHN TAF sites this afternoon. Will see
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and tonight. VSBYS will be mainly VFR but
will see some MVFR VSBYs in and around convective activity. Winds
will stay mainly out of the SW but could see some gusty variable
winds in and around storms. Wind speeds will be in the 5-10kt
range this morning with speeds increasing into the 8-12kt range
with gust to 20kt this afternoon.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  63  78  53 /  40 100  60   0
Atlanta         83  64  76  55 /  40 100  60   0
Blairsville     71  57  70  45 /  90 100  20   0
Cartersville    80  60  76  49 /  80 100  40   0
Columbus        87  66  81  57 /  10  90  90  10
Gainesville     78  63  75  53 /  70 100  30   0
Macon           88  65  80  57 /   0  80  90  10
Rome            78  59  75  48 /  90 100  20   0
Peachtree City  85  63  78  52 /  30 100  70   0
Vidalia         89  68  82  63 /   0  30  80  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday
morning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-030>035-041>048-052>059-
066>071-078-079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...01