678
FXUS62 KFFC 101126
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
626 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Freeze Warning remains in effect for early Monday morning for
   portions of western and northern Georgia.

 - A hard freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning
   across most all of north and central Georgia. A Freeze Warning
   is in effect.

 - Light snow accumulations in the north Georgia mountains between
   2 PM and 10 PM today for elevations above 2000 ft. Lower
   elevations in the NE may see very light accumulation
   (generally under 1/2") on grassy and elevated surfaces.

 - A Fire Danger Statement is in effect this afternoon and evening
   for portions of central Georgia, where gusty winds and low RHs
   will lead to elevated fire conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Coldest air of the season thus far is spilling into north and
central Georgia this morning as an impressively potent early winter
trough presses through the area over the next 36 hours. Moisture
within the CCB that has wrapped around the back side of the low is
producing some streaked cloud cover across NW GA and metro Atlanta.
While low probability, could see a bit of graupel or maybe a very
light flurry or two fly in these areas through sunrise. Higher
probability of seeing something wintry flying in the air will be in
NE GA mountains, where moisture is piling up against some of the
elevated terrain producing widespread cloud cover and better chances
of a snow flurry or even light snow shower, though no accumulations
expected (yet). Otherwise...it`s windy and it`s cold. Temperatures
are quickly falling and much of northern and portions of western GA
should be below freezing for the morning commute. A Freeze Warning
is in effect in these areas.

Temperatures today aren`t going to do much in the way of warming.
Aloft, a potent vortmax embedded within the deeper trough will
quickly dig towards the Southeast, driving the potent surface high
bringing our Arctic blast down with it. Despite some sunshine, CAA
will continue to usher in windy conditions and cold air from the
northwest. In north GA and the metro, temperatures will only make it
to the upper 30s to low 40s, barely 10 degrees above lows from the
morning in some cases. It will be a touch warmer down in central
Georgia, but still chilly, with temperatures only making it into the
upper 40s and low 50s.

This vortmax will also bring another source of shallow moisture and
lift from the afternoon into the evening that will push up against
the mountains. Given how this system already is performing over
parts of the Midwest, have leaned with this forecast package into
some of the hires guidance that shows some accumulations of snow in
NE GA. This is a bit of a challenging forecast. It has been quite
warm in the lead up to this event, and ground temperatures are
certainly going to reflect that, especially in some of the valleys.
That said, do believe this system has some potential for spitting
out more than just snow showers or flurries within the mountainous
terrain, where mechanical lift can aid the potent vortmax. Air will
also be cold and several degrees below freezing in some places,
especially in elevated locations. So, will anything be able to stick
if it falls? I`m going to go with a strong "maybe". Think we could
see some accumulations in the highest terrain of 1-2". In the
valleys, think we may see some areas that see some accumulations,
though these will likely be limited to elevated objects or grassy
areas. Not expecting any impacts to roadways or travel, even minor,
and for this reason have chosen not to issue a Winter Weather
Advisory, but trends through the morning hours will need to be
monitored. Aside from this, a few flurries or some graupel may be
seen across NW GA, and won`t rule out something making it into the
metro. No accumulations or impacts expected from this.

Down towards central Georgia, with very dry air and windy
conditions, have chosen to issue a Fire Danger Statement. Recent
rains have certainly helped, but strong winds combined within the
dry air will dry vegetation out quickly. Air temperatures are a bit
warmer as well for ignition temperatures. The only reason that a Red
Flag Warning is not being hoisted is that fuels are likely not going
to be dry enough and the RHs are marginal. Will need to monitor
Tuesday as well for Fire Danger, but winds will likely not be
elevated enough for any Red Flag.

Tonight will see a widespread hard freeze across all of north and
central Georgia. The potent vortmax will phase with the larger
trough, dig across the southeast and begin to lift out of the area.
Potent Arctic surface high will slide down right into the southeast.
Winds will decrease, skies will clear, and temperatures will
plummet. Forecast lows are in the low to mid 20s across the north
(colder in the mountains), moving to the mid to upper 20s across
central and eastern GA. Another Freeze Warning is in effect, and
will likely end the frost/freeze program for the winter given this
should completely end the traditional growing season. Please make
sure kids are bundled up in the morning for the bus stop, ensure
any outdoor animals will be comfortable, protect any sensitive
vegetation, and put the covers on the spigots.

Warming trend begins on Tuesday. Will still be seasonably cold, but
we will make it into the upper 40s to 50s across much the CWA. And
with that, I think that`s about as much as I can cram into a
single 36 hour AFD period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Aside from a dry front that looks to pass through the region between
Wednesday and Thursday, the majority of the long term period will
be quiet. Surface high pressure in place through the week will
result in dry and tranquil weather conditions for North and
Central Georgia through Saturday. Our next potential for rain
looks to hold off until late next weekend, though latest guidance
still has some inconsistencies in timing/extent of this next
system. A gradual warming trend is expected from Wednesday into
the weekend. Forecast highs in the 60s (50s in the mountains) on
Wednesday will warm to the 70s by the weekend. Forecast lows will
follow suit, starting off near freezing Wednesday morning and
returning to the 40s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR through TAF period. Primary impact will be winds that remain
elevated at 10-20 kts with gusts at or above 30 kts from NW. These
should begin to fade a bit after 00Z. May see occasional impacts
from clouds at 030-040 range through evening, but these should be
temporary. Can`t rule out a very brief snow flurry or sprinkle at
the airport late this afternoon and early evening, but probability
is very low.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          42  26  48  34 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         40  27  49  37 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     31  20  43  28 /  30  40   0   0
Cartersville    40  23  49  33 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        47  26  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     39  27  47  35 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           47  26  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            42  25  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  42  23  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         52  28  52  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>025-030>037-041>049-052>057-066>068.

Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Lusk