687
FXUS62 KFFC 151851
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025


    - Above normal temperatures will largely persist through the
      week ahead with some daily record highs potentially in
      jeopardy by midweek.

    - Low relative humidity values and dry fuels will result in
      critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon.

    - Though an isolated light rain shower is possible in far
      northeast Georgia tonight, no appreciable rainfall is
      expected through at least late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Pleasant weather continues across North and Central Georgia this
afternoon. Fair wx cu and high cirrus blanket much of North Georgia
and temperatures currently sit in the 70s areawide (upper 60s in the
mountains). Moving into Sunday, a mostly dry front is slated to push
through the state bringing some early morning cloud cover and a low
chance for rain to the northeast Georgia mountains. On Sunday
morning, temperatures will be more mild given cloud cover increasing
and temperatures may be a touch cooler during the day. However,
skies should begin clearing quickly by the afternoon following the
FROPA. Much drier and slightly cooler conditions will begin settling
in across the region behind the front on Sunday Night/Monday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 145 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025


Perhaps unsurprisingly, the trend of warm and mainly dry conditions
will persist through the bulk of the long term period with at most a
small glimmer of hope for increasing rain chances by late week. At
the onset of the week, a renewed very dry airmass will envelop the
area on Monday in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage. With
dewpoints tanking into the 20s (or lower), widespread minimum
relative humidity values in the 15-20% range should lead to slam
dunk Fire Danger Statement conditions Monday afternoon. Fortunately,
current light forecast wind speeds would preclude Red Flag
conditions. Monday into Monday night will be the only period with
temperatures reasonably close to normal for mid-November with highs
ranging from the mid 60s in north Georgia to lower 70s in Middle
Georgia and lows as cool as the upper 30s to low 40s.

Beyond Monday, aside from perhaps a sprinkle or light rain shower in
far north Georgia Tuesday-Wednesday around the northern periphery of
the Southeast ridge, dry and warm conditions will prevail through
late week. Amid the influence of the ridge, temperatures will remain
well above normal. Highs will likely peak in the upper 70s to low
80s by Wednesday and Thursday, putting daily record highs within
reach.

Finally, regarding that glimmer of hope for some rainfall, a trough
ejecting out of the intermountain west on Thursday into Friday will
initiate a surface low that will lift northeastward from the Plains
into the Midwest by Friday. Guidance indicates the trailing cold
front may bring increasing rain chances locally by Friday into
Saturday of next weekend. Even so, uncertainty remains high.
GEFS/ECMWF ensemble guidance are fairly unimpressed with potential
QPF (probabilities remain largely <50% for even 0.50" total QPF in
far north GA through Saturday and much lower for areas farther
south), so a drought-denting rainfall appears unlikely at this
juncture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through 00z at all sites. Fair wx cu
(3-5kft) and gusty west winds (6-12kts gusts up to 20kts) will
also persist until 00z. A mostly dry FROPA will occur Sunday AM
bringing gusty WNW winds and low cigs 3-5kft between 10-15z. Cigs
may briefly dip to MVFR between 11-14z. Otherwise, clearing
conditions after 18z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on occurrence of MVFR on Sunday AM.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  75  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         57  74  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     53  65  33  60 /  20  10   0   0
Cartersville    56  74  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        52  77  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     58  73  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           53  77  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            58  76  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  55  75  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         53  79  46  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...07