142
FXUS62 KFFC 170926
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
426 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 418 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

    - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon
      due to low relative humidity and dry fuels.

- Above normal temperatures continue this week with a potential
  for daily record highs around mid week.

- Low rain chances for North GA around midweek with any
      meaningful rainfall holding off until at least Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

A brief pause on the warm temperatures is expected today, after a
cold front moved through late yesterday. Highs in the low to mic 60s
are expected. Very dry air has filtered down from the NW. Relative
humidities are expected to drop into the teens this afternoon and as
a result a Fire Danger Statement has been issued. Highs will bounce
back tomorrow, with highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the
50s. Dry conditions are expected to continue tomorrow and it`s
possible that another Fire Danger Statement will be needed for
portions of the southeastern end of the CWA.

No sign of rain in the short term, and it will be tough to find any
in the long term. Winds will remain W/NW through the long term, and
are expected to ease some by tomorrow as a more zonal upper level
flow is established.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 418 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

As we pick up on Tuesday, the pattern seems to get a bit more active
with a shortwave trough pushing through the overall flow Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. This impulse will stay confined to the
Ohio Valley with rain chances remaining limited over northern GA.
CAMs have begun indicating the chance for limited showers overnight
Tuesday into early Wednesday morning but did limit chances to 30%
for the most part to account for the lack of forcing near the
forecast area.

Following this impulse, ridging settles in over much of the
southeast CONUS which will ultimately allow for temps to reach into
the upper 70s to the low 80s across much of the area Wednesday
through Friday. We`ll actually be on record watch for day time highs
these days with many all 4 sites either forecasted to break the
record or tie/approach the record. Temps will be 15-20 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

Friday is when we should see an uptick in precip chances although
ensembles still remain diverse in timing. A low pressure system
looks to push eastward from where it has been over the southwest
into Friday and Saturday with an associated front pushing through
likely Saturday. Rain chances towards the weekend have increased
over the northern half of the state where confidence is increasing
in elevated rain chances. When it comes to thunderstorms, it will
really be dependent on the timing of the front. Will need to wait
and see as the CAMs come in how the front will play out. QPF values
are between 0.5-1" through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

NW winds will become light and variable by 00Z. A high VFR deck may
be possible this afternoon, but given the amount of dry air behind
the front we`ve opted to hold off.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High on all elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  40  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         67  45  73  57 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     61  39  66  50 /   0   0   0  40
Cartersville    66  41  75  55 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        72  45  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     67  43  70  54 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           71  40  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            68  42  77  57 /   0   0   0  20
Peachtree City  68  41  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         73  42  78  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Vaughn