732
FXUS62 KFFC 231904
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A Flood Watch remains in effect through late Friday evening
    across portions of north Georgia.

  - The threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will
    remain elevated across north Georgia through Saturday in the
    presence of a stalled front.

  - Heat concerns rebound in earnest next week with an upward
    trend in temperatures and heat index by Monday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form over
northern Georgia as the front is slowly sinking southward. Coverage
is expected to increase into the evening and overnight as we begin
to transition the flow. As the trough to our north begins to shift
slightly eastward, a surge of energy pushes through the flow into
our area that will help enhance the precipitation we will have
ongoing along the frontal boundary over north Georgia. With this
frontal boundary stalled out through Saturday we are likely to see
increased rain amounts with 1-3 inches possible with locally up to 4-
5 inches. This will be highly dependent on where storms are able to
lock onto the terrain and or where storms are able to train in one
area for a long time period. The flood watch is currently in effect
through Friday at midnight but this could be extended into Saturday
if the heavy rain threat is expected to linger into the weekend. The
expansion of the watch will be heavily dependent on what happens
into the afternoon and evening and the later model suite. Our
current confidence in flash flooding lies in the current watch area.

One positive of the increased rainfall is increased cloud cover.
This will ultimately lead to decreased heat indices at least for
north Georgia. Today they should top out in the upper 90s to near
100, but tomorrow will see heat indices in the low to mid 90s for
north Georgia and up to ~100 for the remainder of the area.
Temps will be in the mid to upper 80s for far north Georgia and low
to mid 90s for the remainder of the area.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Saturday starts with the pattern in transition from a weak westerly
flow to a full fledged North to northwest flow around a significant
western ridge setting up.  500mb flow within the models while fairly
consistent at indicating a disturbance within the flow moving
our direction, are very inconsistent in how convection evolves
along and ahead of that disturbance. Of the CAMS which reach into
early Saturday many suggest a TS complex diving SE through the
mid MS valley but differ on how and where the bulk of the activity
is located. As a result, NBM pop guidance for Sat is fairly high
~60pct but the spread is fairly significant amongst the many
members ranging from 10pct to 70pct...likely due to the
uncertainty the NW flow pattern brings. This yields a fairly low
confidence pop forecast for Saturday ranging everywhere from
mostly dry to decent storm coverage.

Likewise, the remainder of the extended period from Sunday to
Wednesday locks the area into a solid N to NW flow aloft...and a
more uncertain pattern in terms of sensible weather. Ensemble
means of the GFS and ECMWF attempt to identify individual
vorticity maxima sliding SE around the eastern periphery of the
western ridge suggesting that some "waves" will be present, but
suspect the blending within the means are dampening any singular
signal out. Single model runs, (GFS,CMC,ECM etc) all suggest
disturbances, aka ridge riders, within the mean NW flow rotate
around the ridge and southeast into the area during the period.
Given the pattern and the instability in place, would not be
surprised to see shower/storm chances increase each day with time.
Current WPC and NBM guidance is less than 10 pops Monday and
Tuesday, but the spread within the guidance ranges from 0 to 30pct
meaning some of the guidance is catching onto the prospect of
activity in the flow. From prior history of summer ridges, ala
summer of 2023, we need to keep our guard up. CSU and NCAR ML
guidance also recognizes the pattern and at least suggest some
severe probs possible..esp Tue and Wed with deep N flow and plenty
of instability. In short, will need to keep an eye on Mon- Wed
period for severe risk within the NW flow regime.

Despite being in NW flow, the surface dpts remain elevated in the
low to mid 70s through the period.  Combined with increasing temps,
expect Apparent T`s to slowly increase and peak by Tue and Wed.
Baring relief from rain, guidance suggests Heat Advisory is likely
need Mon - Wed across a large portion of the fcst area, but
particularly along and south of I-20 where HI values range from 105-
108 each day.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Front stays north of the area but is sinking southward. TSRA is
possible 22z-02z but could see it linger through 04z but chances
are low. Likely to see MVFR tomorrow morning again with the
potential for patchy IFR. Should see SHRA begin to pick up late
morning with TSRA beginning ~16-18z. Winds out of the SW will
become light and potentially VRB overnight before picking back up
tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on TSRA and MVFR.
High on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  87  72  88 /  50  70  40  50
Atlanta         75  88  74  88 /  30  60  20  60
Blairsville     67  80  67  81 /  70  80  30  60
Cartersville    73  87  73  88 /  60  80  30  60
Columbus        76  94  76  93 /  10  20  20  50
Gainesville     72  84  72  86 /  70  80  40  50
Macon           76  93  74  91 /   0  20  10  60
Rome            72  87  72  87 /  60  80  30  60
Peachtree City  74  89  73  89 /  20  50  20  60
Vidalia         76  97  76  95 /   0  20  10  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>024-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...Hernandez