719
FXUS62 KFFC 190729
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
329 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Key Messages:

- Surface boundary sinking southward will result in a line of
   thunderstorms pushing into Georgia early this afternoon into the
   early evening. Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with
   main threats being damaging wind gusts.

- Decreased rain chances beginning Friday with increasing
   temperatures. Rain chances limited to central Georgia with
   temps reaching the low to mid 90s.

Discussion:

Today begins the transition day where we finally start to push
out of this pattern we`ve been stuck in the past week. Bermuda
high pushes eastward while the upper level troughing pushes
eastward into MS/AL through Thursday. This will allow for a
boundary to push into the area early this afternoon into the
evening from the northwest before stalling out this evening over
central Georgia. SPC has outlined most of north and central
Georgia in a marginal risk for this system as it pushes southward.
Back here in Georgia, that boundary will serve as the main
driving force for convection early this afternoon. CAMs are
indicating a line pushing through during this time frame along
with modest shear values to support this setup. Currently
forecasted DCAPE values of 800-1100 J/kg could also help support
a damaging wind threat with this line of storms. One limiting
factor for today will be how much day time heating is able to
happen. With the line coming through as early as 11am-noon into
northwest Georgia, this will be a limited amount of time of
heating. Still overall expecting a damaging wind threat (60mph) as
this line pushes through. CEntral Georgia will be an area to watch
for storms to reform into the evening as the boundary stalls over
this area. This area will have ample time for day time heating,
thus more energy but overall less shear values. Could see an
isolated damaging wind threat towards the southward extent of the
marginal risk with this.

For tomorrow, rain chances should remain over central Georgia
focused around the stalled frontal boundary. Chances remain low
but could see a few isolated storms with the main threats being
gusty winds and frequent lightning.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Key Messages:

  - A dry weekend on tap by June standards, with best chances of a
few afternoon storms in central Georgia. Better afternoon storm
chances will return by Monday into Tuesday across the area.

  - Heat builds in and intensifies into early next week with
    temps in the mid 90s across much of the area. Forecast heat
    index values are in the lower 100s, though some uncertainty on
    reaching these with afternoon storm chances.

Forecast:

Front that slid through the area in the late Thursday into early
Friday will be stalled somewhere in the vicinity of central Georgia
Friday night into Saturday. Drier air should slide in behind this,
especially aloft, bringing PWATs down to near 1", compared to the
1.5-2" we`ve been at the past few days. This will finally bring an
end to the persistent afternoon diurnally driven convection.
Well, at least for a few days. It`s still June, folks. Best
chances of seeing any rain will be isolated to central Georgia
closer to where the boundary stalls, where moisture combined with
a bit of forcing for the boundary may allow for some storms to
fire off. Severe weather is not anticipated with any of these.

Aloft, an upper level trough that helped drive the front through
will give way to pretty stout subtropical ridge that builds in over
much of the eastern 2/3rds of the country into next week. All
ensemble guidance shows mean of 594-597 dam centered over SE that
will shift a bit east through the beginning of next week. This will
bring a bit of a heat dome over the region, bringing highs into the
mid 90s over the weekend into the beginning of next week. Forecast
heat indices starting Sunday will push into the low 100s, with
some indications that we could creep towards the 105 threshold for
heat advisories by the middle of the week. However, want to put a
big caveat on that and say that models can very much overdo
temperatures a bit this far out, especially thanks to struggles
with proper representation of cloud cover and convective coverage
during peak day time heating hours due to large time steps and
parameterized convective schemes. So, high probability that we see
some of the warmest temperatures of the year next week, but much
lower confidence at this time in achieving any heat criteria. Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Only high level cirrus over the area currently after the showers
have mainly left the area. This morning could see scattered MVFR
skies before lifting to VFR by 15-16z. A line/cluster of
thunderstorms is expected to push southward early afternoon.
Current timing is 17-18z as the earliest start time with the most
likely between 18-19z. By 22-23z should see thunderstorms push
past the area and by 01z should see scattered high level clouds
take over. Low end wind gusts are possible through the afternoon
and evening up to 20kt.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence in thunderstorm timing.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  68  91  68 /  60  10   0   0
Atlanta         88  70  91  71 /  60  10   0   0
Blairsville     82  62  85  62 /  70  20   0   0
Cartersville    87  68  89  66 /  70  10   0   0
Columbus        90  71  93  73 /  50  20  10   0
Gainesville     86  68  89  68 /  70  10   0   0
Macon           92  71  93  71 /  50  20  10   0
Rome            85  67  90  65 /  70  10   0   0
Peachtree City  89  68  91  68 /  60  10  10   0
Vidalia         93  73  93  74 /  50  40  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Hernandez