932
FXUS62 KFFC 062024
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
424 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
  the area this afternoon through Thursday morning. Several storms
  may be severe, capable of producing damaging winds, a few
  tornadoes, and large hail.

- A Flood Watch is in effect from late Wednesday through Thursday
  morning for portions of north and central GA where a widespread
  1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall and localized amounts over 4
  inches may lead to flooding in poor drainage and flood prone
  areas.

- Cooler temperatures Thursday into Friday will give way to a
  warming trend through the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 421 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

A low pressure system is exiting the Great Lakes region and moving
into the Northeast. A cold front extending from this low is
positioned over the Tennessee Valley region and slowly advancing
southeast towards north Georgia. Southwesterly flow at the surface
and mid levels continues to bring in warm and moist air from the
Gulf, which will help dewpoints increase into the upper 60s to near
70s and precipitable water values increase to between 1.75-2 inches
in portions of north and west Georgia by the middle of the
afternoon. Another round of showers ahead of the front is spreading
eastward into the far northern tier. With SBCAPE between 500-1000
J/kg, scattered thunderstorms will also be expected within these
showers. The greatest low-level shear is still displaced to the
northwest of the forecast area, though a couple of strong storms
capable of producing frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and
gusty winds will be possible through the remainder of the afternoon.
High temperatures this afternoon will be limited to the 70s in far
north Georgia underneath overcast skies and amid the ongoing
precipitation. Highs will be in the low 80s in and parallel to
Atlanta/Athens and in the mid to upper 80s to the south.

Tonight, the progression of the cold front will begin to slow as it
enters far northwest Georgia. Mid level disturbances traversing the
southwesterly flow aloft will overrun this front. This will help
organize multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms overnight into
Thursday, which will lead to both severe weather and flooding
threats. These will be detailed below:

Severe Weather Potential:

The most likely time window for severe weather will be tonight
through early Thursday morning as the front enters the forecast area
and slowly pushes south. Though diurnal heating will have come to an
end by then, the presence of a southwesterly low level jet
(increasing from 25 kts to nearly 40 kts this evening) immediately
ahead of the front and continued advection of warm and moist air
will allow for SBCAPE values to range from 1000-1500 J/kg across the
northern part of the state. The strengthening of the LLJ will also
contribute to enhanced shear ahead of the front, with effective
shear increasing to 35-45 kts while 0-1 km level helicity values
climb to between 150-250 m2/s2. Initially, the storm mode within the
strongest forcing ahead of the front is most likely to be a
combination of discrete cells and short bowing segments. A look at
forecast soundings shows more straight hodographs further south/east
in the hours after midnight, and thus storms are anticipated to
develop upscale into more of a linear convective mode at that time.

The SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
weather overnight through early Thursday morning, with all modes of
severe weather possible. The most widespread, consistent threat
through the period will be damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes will
also be possible, most likely in the north/west portions of Georgia
tonight when a discrete storm mode is favored. The tornado threat
will begin to diminish during the early morning after storms begin
to congeal into more of a line, though they could still occur where
notches and breaks are able to occur in the line. With the high
shear and strong helicity, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out.
Hail up to the size of a quarter will also be possible, but will be
a lesser threat than damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

After sunrise on Sunday into the afternoon, there is a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe weather in central Georgia where SBCAPE
values between 1000-1500 J/kg will be possible once again. By this
time, shear and helicity will be steadily diminishing. Still a few
storms ahead of the front will be capable of becoming strong to
severe, capable of producing strong gusts. A brief tornado also
cannot be ruled out where conditions align.

Flooding Potential:

A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of north and west Georgia
through 8 AM Thursday morning. This watch has been expanded to the
south/west to include the Columbus metro area in the latest forecast
update. With the aforementioned PWAT values, stronger storms that
occur will have highly efficient rainfall rates. Furthermore, the
nature of the mid level shortwave disturbances overrunning the
front will favor a training motion of storms moving from WSW to
ENE. Several strong storms with high rainfall rates training over
a common location could pose a greater threat for flooding where
it occurs. A widespread 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain is forecast
within the watch, with localized amounts of 4 inches or more
possible (especially where training occurs) This will lead to the
potential for flooding in urban areas and areas with poor
drainage, as well as creeks and streams prone to flash flooding.
It may sound counter-intuitive, but with ongoing drought
conditions, it should be noted that the very dry/hard grounds can
lead to more rapid runoff and a higher flash flood threat than
otherwise soft/moist soils.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 421 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Transient surface high pressure in the wake of Thursday`s front will
bring a return to dry and cooler conditions on Friday with the
stationary surface boundary displaced near the Gulf coast. Dry
weather should be short-lived as a cutoff low ejects eastward out of
the desert Southwest on Saturday. A return to southwest flow and
overrunning moisture will thus bring at least a chance for showers
Saturday before more widespread rainfall on Sunday as this southern
stream wave lifts northeastward into the area.

A follow up cold front then looks to push into the area on Monday as
a trough swings southeastward. While exact timing of this frontal
passage remains uncertain, at this point a drying trend looks to
take hold in the wake of the front from Monday into Tuesday. A
renewed push of post-frontal cooler temperatures looks to bring a
couple of crisp mornings Tuesday/Wednesday before a warming trend
returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are in place across the area, with ceilings between
035-070 at CSG and the ATL metro site ahead of an approaching cold
front. As the front draws closer to the area, SHRA/TSRA will enter
far north Georgia, with some isolated showers spreading as far
south as ATL in the mid to late afternoon hours. Mid level
disturbances overrunning the front will help develop more
organized clusters of TSRA. At this time, there is a TEMPO for
TSRA at ATL from 01-05Z followed by a PROB30 from 06-11Z where
timing and location are more uncertain. Ceilings will also lower
through the overnight hours, down to MVFR by 04-05Z and IFR by
10-12Z. Precip will taper off from north to south on Monday, with
ceilings improving to MVFR by the late morning. Prevailing winds
will be SW at 8-12 kts with gusts of 18-22 kts this afternoon,
diminishing to 5-10 kts overnight. Winds will shift to NW behind
the front between 10-12Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of SHRA/TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  77  51  73 /  90  70   0   0
Atlanta         64  74  53  73 / 100  70   0   0
Blairsville     57  68  42  69 / 100  30   0   0
Cartersville    59  73  47  74 / 100  50   0   0
Columbus        66  80  55  76 /  90  90   0   0
Gainesville     63  74  50  71 / 100  60   0   0
Macon           65  79  55  75 /  80  90   0   0
Rome            57  73  46  74 / 100  40   0   0
Peachtree City  63  76  50  74 / 100  80   0   0
Vidalia         69  81  60  78 /  40  90   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-030>035-041>048-052>059-066>071-078-079-089>091-102-103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...King