327
FXUS62 KFFC 310716
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Drier conditions are expected again today, giving us a break
    from the heat.

  - Thunderstorm chances return on Saturday morning and into the
    afternoon. A few storms could be strong to severe during the
    afternoon with the potential for heavy rainfall.

  - Afternoon storm chances will continue through the weekend and
    into next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

One more day of dry weather in store before we go through a
pattern change by Saturday.  NW flow aloft across the region
combined with weak northerly surface flow will maintain the 50`s
and 60`s dewpoints in place another day before winds shift around
to the west and southwest to begin the return of moisture. Upper
disturbance currently located over the plains states rotating SE
around the SW US ridge is forecast to deepen as it reaches the Mid
MS Valley Friday into Saturday. In response, the deep moisture and
70+ dpts which has been suppressed to the Gulf Coast surges north
and northeast amidst the southwest flow which sets up ahead of
the deepening low. Fairly good agreement amongst model guidance on
the evolution of the low/trof digging in to our west/northwest
and deep moisture returning across the region through Saturday.
Model PWATs double between Friday evening and Saturday morning
starting near 1 inch and surging to over 2 inches by early
Saturday. With modest upper forcing setting in by early Saturday,
expect shower and thunderstorms to develop by late AM/early
afternoon within the broad SW flow. CAMs suggesting sfc CAPE
surging with the moisture surge on the order of 2000 to 30e00 J/KG
by mid day Sat. Most of the guidance is suggesting linear
development across AL by late AM which moves eastward into the
region by early afternoon. New SPC day 2 has added a slight risk
which grazes NW GA and a marginal risk across a good portion of NW
and west GA. Wouldn`t be surprised to see margnl risk push
eastward with updates given the parameter space. ML guidance in
line with SPC thinking as well as an eastern extension of the
mrgnl risk. With the upper low continuing to dig across the mid-
MS valley, CAMs suggesting a 2nd line of storms develops late in
the day across W AL/E MS north into TN before shifting east into
the state late evening Sat. While most CAMS are suggesting a 2nd
round of convection late Sat, what remains to be seen is how much
the region can destabilize after the early in the day convection.
If, the airmass can recover even a little amid the 2+ PWATS, the
2nd line approaching will increase the flood risk for the area.
WPC ERO for Saturday places the region solidly in the SLGT risk
(level 2 of 4) as a result of the potential for repeat storms and
high rainfall rates anticipated with storms. Hard to pinpoint any
one area that may be at risk, but will need to re- evaluate with
later shifts for possible flood watch.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The drier conditions we are currently enjoying will be short lived
as a upper level trough digs across eastern CONUS pushing a
associated boundary to the southeast across our area. This set up
with drive a southwest flow and provide ample cloud cover with
widespread showers and thunderstorms by the start of the weekend.
One benefit of the wetter conditions is a reduction in the afternoon
high temperatures by several degrees through the first of next week.
The wetter pattern will continue through the tuesday with with PWATS
range from the 2-2.5" range through Sunday. While we are not
currently expecting to reach severe criteria at this time,
however, the widespread convection will allow for a few strong
storms with gusty winds, and localized flash flooding conditions.

Models continue to show variability beyond mid week on how
quickly the upper low shifts away from the forecast area. There
are indications some drier air will work into the CWA by mid week,
but more time is required for the pattern to resolve. At this
time, continue to advertise PoPs trending more scattered by
midweek as a result of aforementioned variability.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions expected again this TAF cycle.
Some high cirrus moving in from the north
should stick around and a weak CU field is
expected to develop by late AM early PM. Biggest challenge
this cycle is the weak and variable winds, particularly
in the AM.  Am keeping a westerly component in place as winds
off the surface and aloft are all out of the west, but some
guidance is wheeling the winds around clockwise through the east
side before going west by early afternoon and as west winds mix.
Not too confident that will happen, but have higher confidence in
the west winds mixing down by late AM as the CU field develops.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on wind direction Friday AM. High confidence
all other elements.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  71  88  71 /   0   0  70  80
Atlanta         92  73  86  72 /   0  10  90  80
Blairsville     84  65  80  67 /   0   0  70  90
Cartersville    91  71  86  71 /   0  10  90  90
Columbus        94  75  87  73 /  10  20  90  70
Gainesville     90  70  85  71 /   0   0  80  90
Macon           94  73  89  72 /   0   0  80  70
Rome            91  71  86  71 /   0  20  90  90
Peachtree City  91  72  85  71 / e  0  10  90  80
Vidalia         96  74  94  73 /  10  10  80  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...30