686
FXUS62 KFFC 251958
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 249 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

 - Rain and storms will persist into the evening and through the
   overnight, clearing the area by tomorrow morning. Additional
   rainfall amounts of 0.5"-1" are possible, with higher amounts
   for locations that see heavier thunderstorms.

 - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather
   across portions of north and much of central Georgia this
   afternoon into tonight. Damaging winds and hail will be the
   primary hazards, though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
   out.

 - Drier and cooler weather persists through the end of the week with
   the next round of rain holding off until early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Current radar loop shows a few showers still lingering across north
GA from this mornings line of strong storms. The radar is also
showing what looks to be another line oriented NE to SW becoming
more organized across central AL. The northern end of the line is
beginning to push into NW GA (Polk/Floyd Counties). There are some
stronger storms along the southern end of the line so we will
definitely need to monitor this situations through this evening as
it pushes into the state. The first line that moved through North GA
including the ATL area seems to have stabilized the area a bit but
central GA has seen quite a bit of differential heating and
instability indices are developing across central and south GA. Seeing
Capes in the 500-1000J/KG range and Lifted Indices in the -1 to -2
range. The best shear is still across North GA/Central AL but as
that front moves SE so will the better shear values. The one main
thing we have working in our favor is the main parent low center
associated with this system is currently centered over the western
great lake states and is expected to continue moving NE over night.
This lows movement will pull the deeper moisture and better dynamics
northward with it allowing the tail end of the front to weaken over
night as it moves SE through GA. We should still see some strong to
low end severe storms this afternoon/evening but they should be
isolated in nature.

This front finally pushes SE of the area just after daybreak Wed
with a drier airmass moving into the state from NW to SE through the
day. Temps Wed will still be a bit on the warm side as the cooler
temps dont begin to move in until Wed night. Will see Thu morning
lows mainly in the 30s with some upper 20s across the NE GA
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Forecast picks up on Thanksgiving where things will be relatively
quiet to start. Large upper level trough will be swinging through
the eastern CONUS. Strong secondary front will have pushed through
the area, brining a dry, cold airmass into north and central
Georgia. Thanksgiving looks to be a bit on the chilly side - highs
will be in the 40s and 50s in most locations, with a few low end 60s
in east central Georgia possible. Expect a sunny, clear day
otherwise. Great day to deep fry a turkey, just make sure you fully
defrost it first :) . As the broad trough continues to swing east,
surface high pressure will continue to settle into the area from the
upper Great Plains, and things will only continue to cool going into
Friday with morning lows in the 20s to near freezing and afternoon
highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s (and colder in the mountains on both
counts). High will continue to slide east into Saturday, bringing
the start of some gradual warming as winds flip to the east and
southeast and we get the beginnings of moisture return to the area
from the Atlantic and Gulf.

As we move forward, uncertainty reigns to an extent. Anytime you
look at the ensemble mean 500 mb heights pattern and things start to
look very smooth and zonal, the model mean is trending towards
climatology and likely represents a fair amount of spread within the
solutions. This is definitely the case for the tail end of the long
term period. Models are struggling with the interaction of several
features within the upper level flow - an Arctic anomaly pushing
into the upper Great Lakes, a short wave ejecting out of Great
Plains, and another wave which dives into the 4 corners region of
the SW, before ejecting across the eastern CONUS. Each of the
ensembles vary greatly in how these features interact and phase with
one another, which is brought out by K-mean cluster analysis that
shows significant timing and amplitude differences even within the
individual ensembles, rather than clustering centered around the
model cores. Basically, a lot of math and science to say this - it
looks like there could be precip to start next week, and there may
even be multiple rounds. However, just how much we see will be
highly dependent on these features the models seem to be struggling
with, so it is hard at this time to say just how much rain we will
get, what our thunderstorm chances will be, etc.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025
Showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through the area this
afternoon. Will continue to see precipitation through tonight
ending a few hours before daybreak as the front moves SE. Will see
Mainly MVFR and VFR ceilings today and tonight but may see some
IFR ceilings with the frontal passage between 01z-06z Wed. Once
the front moves through Winds will turn from the SW to the West
and continue to turn to the NW through Wed afternoon. Wind speeds
expected to stay in the 6-12kt range with some higher gust in and
around any stronger storms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  67  36  52 /  80   0   0   0
Atlanta         58  65  36  51 /  90   0   0   0
Blairsville     50  59  28  44 /  90   0   0   0
Cartersville    53  64  33  50 /  80   0   0   0
Columbus        59  70  37  57 /  80   0   0   0
Gainesville     56  64  36  50 /  90   0   0   0
Macon           61  73  37  57 /  70  20   0   0
Rome            55  65  36  54 /  70   0   0   0
Peachtree City  55  66  33  53 /  80   0   0   0
Vidalia         63  77  40  60 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...01