983
FXUS62 KFFC 051832
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

    - Scattered light showers ongoing across the area under
      overcast skies will continue into tonight and Monday as
      moisture increases amid breezy easterly winds.

    - Though chances for isolated to scattered showers and
      thunderstorms return and linger, rainfall totals will
      be meager for many.

    - Warmer than average through midweek, then seasonable post-
      front.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Satellite and observations have shown a thick layer of clouds across
much of the area since late this morning bringing overcast
conditions. Areas of deep moisture have transported into the region a
little more aggressively than expected with PWATs in the 1.5-2" range
pushing northward into the metro and northeast Georgia. CAPE values
do remain in the 250 to 500 J/kg range over north and central
Georgia with the higher values to the south meaning that although
the moisture is definitely present, light showers will continue into
the evening without becoming heavier with no real instability to
drive them. Amount generally should remain less than a tenth of an
inch across the area. Low clouds and light rain in combination re
causing reduced visibilities though they are currently staying at or
above 2 SM. Overnight should see the light rain taper off but by
tomorrow morning expecting low clouds with the potential for showers
to return under mostly cloud skies again tomorrow evening. With the
easterly flow continuing and the gulf low slowly meandering east the
pattern does not look to change from today into tomorrow.

With the increased cloud cover today, max temps have been lowered
from the NBM to account for the lower than forecasted trend ongoing.
Temps should only top out in the low 70s today. Tomorrow`s high temps
are forecasted to be in the upper 70s to low 80s but should the
cloud cover persist as much as it does today, these values will
likely need to be lowered.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Starting the longterm outlook on Tuesday, easterly low level flow
begins to turn, reducing moisture transport into central Georgia. An
upper level trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region will
send a cold-front down into the southeast, assisting with this
turning. Models have been flip-floppy on the evolution of the front
as it moves through Georgia, with run-to-run variation on stalling
potential in north Georgia as it outruns the upper level support in
its dive south. While current runs (especially GEFS and the GFS)
slow the front as it moves into the area Wednesday, they never fully
stall and bring cooler air through the CWA by Thursday afternoon.
Previous runs temporarily stalled the front in north Georgia,
slowing the progression of the cooler air. What this means
temperature wise is a spread of 5-8 degrees between runs for the
high temperature on Thursday. For precipitation, a more progressive
front means precipitation chances spread further south through
Thursday and QPF becomes more evenly dispersed across the CWA rather
than being concentrated in the north. No matter the outcome,
precipitation through Thursday is unlikely to be substantial enough
in the driest locations to make a significant impact on current
drought conditions.

Temperatures generally decline through the long term as the cold
front moves through. Highs fall from above normal (mid-low 80s north
GA; mid-upper 80s central GA) on Tuesday to near normal (upper 60s
to mid 70s) by Friday. Conditions likely dry out once again at the
end of the outlook, perhaps giving a taste of fall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Seeing IFR CIGS across much of the area which are expected to
continue off and on through at least 22z as light rain has begun.
Will likely see this trend last through 00z with an extension of
the TEMPO likely. Overnight should see some clearing back to VFR
before CIGS plummet again ~11-12z with at least MVFR and scattered
IFR although confidence is increasing on more solidly IFR
conditions in the morning especially with this increased
rainfall. Not expecting conditions to improve too much tomorrow
before we have isolated to scattered showers again tomorrow
afternoon/evening. Wind gusts up to 20 mph will continue through
tomorrow with easterly winds.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  78  63  80 /  10  20   0   0
Atlanta         67  78  66  83 /  20  10   0  10
Blairsville     60  73  61  76 /  20  10  10  10
Cartersville    66  80  66  84 /  20  10   0  10
Columbus        69  84  67  87 /  30  20   0  10
Gainesville     64  77  64  80 /  20  10   0   0
Macon           67  83  65  84 /  20  20   0  10
Rome            67  82  67  86 /  20  10   0  10
Peachtree City  65  80  64  83 /  20  10   0  10
Vidalia         70  86  67  87 /  10  30   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Hernandez