


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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303 FXUS62 KFFC 181053 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 653 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 645 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Warm and dry conditions will continue today. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms (a few strong) return during the predawn hours on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Rainfall totals generally less than an inch are expected. - Limited fire concerns may develop during the upcoming workweek due to a combination of low humidity and the ongoing drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 To start off the weekend, we can expect another day of warm and mostly dry weather across North and Central Georgia. As a result of southerly return flow cloud cover will increase through the afternoon and temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s (70s in the mountains). Some of the latest hi-res guidance tries to paint isolated showers developing this afternoon across parts of North GA. While this can`t be completely ruled out, it`s unlikely any amount of moisture aloft would be able to overcome the drier air still at the mid and lower levels. Thus, better rain and thunderstorm chances will largely hold off until the overnight/predawn hours on Sunday. High amplitude midlevel ridging and surface high pressure will continue to be nudged eastward through the day today as a digging longwave trough with several embedded shortwaves advances across the Central US. At the surface, a low pressure system tracking towards southern Michigan will deepen and an attendant cold front extending southward from the low will move through North and Central Georgia on Sunday. The onset of numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across North and west Georgia will occur during the predawn hours of Sunday and spread south and east heading into the afternoon. Sadly, this next batch of rainfall is not expected to make a meaningful impact on the ongoing drought conditions that plague the state. Given the quick movement of this system, forecast rainfall totals are still likely to be less than an inch. The higher totals, 0.5" up to 1" will range across North GA (roughly north of I-20) and less than 0.5" further south. By the time, showers and storms reach our area early Sunday morning, they will likely have congealed into a line given deep layer shear oriented parallel to the front -- noted in the latest hi-res guidance. At this time, widespread severe storms are not anticipated with this next weather system. However, an isolated strong storm within the line producing wind gusts 40 to 50 MPH remain a possibility. Initially as the front moves into our northwest zones, it will be more aligned with stronger forcing, so any stronger storms to our west could briefly be maintained while entering portions of northwest Georgia. Though through the day the primary forcing becomes more and more displaced to our north as the surface low advances NNE and trough deepens and swings eastward. Additionally, cloud cover, the speed of this system and drier air quickly entering the region on the back side of the trough, will result in convection gradually loosing steam, becoming more scattered/less organized and remaining below severe limits overall. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 For the Workweek: The upcoming workweek should be defined by dry weather and low humidity in the afternoons. Guidance from the GEFS and EPS suggests less than a 5% chance of 0.10 inches of rainfall between Monday and Friday. The only rain chances that even remotely register in our forecast occur Tuesday afternoon in northwest Georgia (5 to 10% chance of a light shower). These paltry rain chances are associated with the passage of a moisture starved cold front in the ensemble guidance. If you have outdoor plans, it is likely safe to assume that Monday through Friday will be dry. Sundays frontal passage and another cold front on Tuesday will funnel drier air into Georgia from the Central U.S. and keep relative humidity values depressed for most of next week. Monday and Wednesday afternoons could see portions of north and central Georgia approach critical fire weather conditions (25% relative humidity). During the rest of the week near critical fire weather conditions may occur. This is a classic setup where the current version of the NBM tends to be bias in favor of higher surface dewpoints and relative humidity values. Thus we went ahead and blended in some of the NBM 10th percentile to push values low between Monday and Friday. If confidence in the weather patter articulated above increases, later shifts may chose to more aggressively blend in guidance in the lower percentile of the NBM. Fire weather partners should monitor the forecast this week, especially with the ongoing drought conditions. Temperatures during the upcoming workweek will generally be agreeable, with afternoon highs in the 70s (60s in the mountains). Slightly warmer weather will occur on Tuesday as and upper level ridge passes overhead, and later in the week as more zonal flow develops. The low humidity levels will favor radiational cooling during the overnight hours, and as a consequence we should see some of the first 30 degree readings of the season in the mountains this week. Further south in the Atlanta Metro our morning lows could fall into the 40s several times. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 SCT to BKN Cu largely 3.5 to 6kft prevail across most sites. Patchy MVFR cigs around 2kft are also observed at CSG and near the ATL sites. Cigs should improve between 14-15z. Winds if not already will be SW through early afternoon before shifting back to the SSE. Clouds increase after 06z with -shra and MVFR cigs moving in between 10-12z. Isolated thunder remains possible this time tomorrow but chances are too low to include in the TAF at this time. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence on extent/occurrence of MVFR cigs this AM and timing of shra on Sunday. High confidence on remaining elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 80 58 72 45 / 0 10 80 0 Atlanta 82 61 73 48 / 0 40 80 0 Blairsville 76 55 65 39 / 10 50 100 0 Cartersville 83 61 73 43 / 0 60 90 0 Columbus 84 62 79 48 / 0 40 80 0 Gainesville 79 59 71 45 / 0 30 90 0 Macon 82 59 76 47 / 0 10 70 0 Rome 86 63 74 43 / 0 70 90 0 Peachtree City 82 60 75 44 / 0 40 80 0 Vidalia 82 59 80 51 / 0 0 50 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Albright AVIATION...07