937
FXUS62 KFFC 131907
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
307 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day this week
   posing a threat for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. A
   few storms this afternoon could be strong to severe.

-  A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of central and east
   Georgia until 8 PM this evening. Another Heat Advisory is in
   effect for central and much of north Georgia from noon to 8 PM
   on Friday.

-  Impactful heat is becoming increasingly likely as heat indices
   climb into the 100s during the late week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The short term period will be characterized by an amplifying mid-
level ridge translating from the Great Plains towards the eastern
CONUS. This afternoon, the forecast area remains underneath
northwesterly flow along the eastern flank of the ridge, with a
subtle disturbance traversing this flow through Tennessee and into
north Georgia. The airmass in place over the region is already
highly favorable for diurnally-driven convection, with dewpoints in
the mid 70s and temperatures rising into the 90s contributing to
SBCAPE values between 3000-4000 J/kg. These SBCAPE values combined
with precipitable water values between 1.8-2.2 inches and DCAPE
between 800-1200 J/kg will also favor the development of strong to
marginally severe storms capable of producing strong, water-loaded
downdrafts. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain will be the
primary threats with any stronger storms that occur. Furthermore, as
the aforementioned upper disturbance draws closer to the area,
storms have become begun to become loosely organized into broken
line segments along outflow boundaries. These features will be the
most likely to produce severe weather as they propagate from
northwest to southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and
into the early evening.

Temperatures and dewpoints today have been highest in central and
far east Georgia, with heat index values climbing into the mid 100s
as a result. A Heat Advisory is in effect for these areas through 8
PM EDT this evening. Temperatures will continue their steady climb
overnight into Friday as the axis of the ridge draws closer to
Georgia. High temperatures on Friday will rise into the mid to upper
90s. With ample moisture lingering even under the ridge, heat index
values tomorrow will rise into the mid to upper 100s in all but the
far northeastern mountains. Deep moisture will also ensure that
there is little relief overnight, with low temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s flirting with record high minimum Friday and Saturday
morning. Another Heat Advisory has been issued across all of central
and the majority of north Georgia accordingly for Friday, which will
be in effect from noon to 8 PM EDT in the afternoon.

The eastward movement of the ridge will serve to displace our
persistent northwesterly flow regime away from our area. This will
at least inhibit the linear, downstream evolution of storms, but
lingering moisture will ensure that isolated to scattered storms
will be able to develop on Friday afternoon nonetheless. A high PWAT
airmass and strong instability will once again favor a few strong
storms capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rain once
again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Broad ridging will extend across the southern and southeastern U.S
as we close out the weekend and head into early next week. As such,
temperatures will remain above normal with heat index values over
100 across the bulk of the area during this time frame. Additional
Heat Advisories are highly likely to continue for portions of the
area where heat index values over 105 occur.

By midweek, the core of the midlevel ridge shifts westward to center
across the Southern Plains into the Southwest. As such, the forecast
area transitions to be on the eastern periphery of the ridge,
favoring a return to a pattern more supportive of additional
disturbances/thunderstorm complexes working southward, though
details of timing and exact placement of these will be unclear until
we get closer to this time frame. Thus, while PoPs remain fairly low
and of the isolated variety at this juncture, these could certainly
trend upward as we get closer to next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Scattered TSRA has developed across much of north and central
Georgia and is forecast to continue through the late afternoon.
There is a TEMPO for TSRA at ATL from 18-22Z to account for
convection over the metro area. A VFR cu field between 035-050
will persist through the afternoon as well. W/NW winds of 6-10 kts
today will diminish to 5 kts or less overnight. Scattered diurnal
storms are expected once again on Friday, warranting a PROB30 for
TSRA from 18-23Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  97  76  98 /  10  20  10  20
Atlanta         76  94  77  95 /  10  20  10  20
Blairsville     70  88  71  89 /  10  20   0  40
Cartersville    74  94  75  95 /  10  20  10  10
Columbus        77  95  77  95 /  30  30  20  50
Gainesville     75  95  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
Macon           75  95  76  95 /  20  30  10  30
Rome            74  93  75  94 /  10  20  10  20
Peachtree City  74  94  75  94 /  10  20  10  30
Vidalia         76  97  77  97 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ001>005-011-
012-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ027-036>039-
047>051-058>062-069-071>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...King