029
FXUS62 KFFC 251151
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
651 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

 - Rain chances return today and linger through tomorrow. Amounts
   range from 0.5" or less south of I-85 and 0.75-1.5" across far
   north Georgia, with isolated pockets up to 2-2.5" possible.

 - There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather
   across much of north and central Georgia today. Damaging winds
   and hail will be the primary hazards, though an isolated
   tornado cannot be ruled out.

 - Drier and cooler weather persists through the end of the week with
   the next round of rain holding off until early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

After several warm and mild days across the Southeast, a pattern
change is on our doorstep this morning. A surface low pressure
system lifting across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region
will continue to deepen over the course of the day today. Its
attendant cold frontal boundary spans a majority of ECONUS, and will
sharpen and sweep eastward as the low strengthens. Ahead of the
front, moisture has begun to rebound, with dewpoints initially in
the mid-50s surging into the 60s by midday. North and central
Georgia will be fairly well-removed from the parent system, but
sufficient forcing should exist to support the development of a line
of showers and thunderstorms that will move from northwest to
southeast across the forecast area during the afternoon and evening
on Tuesday.

The parameter space remains a bit tricky, and is likely to be
subject to the mismatch that can be typical of cool season setups.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across MS/AL at the time of
writing of this AFD (coincident with the arrival of best shear -- 35-
45+ kts) out well ahead of what will become a quasi-organized line
of convection later today. However, development of best -- but still
modest -- instability will come with the onset of diurnal heating
this afternoon. A glance at SPC mesoanalysis reveals effectively 0
surface-based or most-unstable CAPE (including elevated instability)
across either north or central Georgia, owing to a combination of a
strong capping inversion and cloud cover. As such, as convective
activity moves properly into north Georgia over the next couple of
hours before daybreak, severe chances (any hazard) remain very low.
It remains to be seen if the cloud cover associated with this
potentially redeveloping convection ahead of the line eats away at
our ceiling instability-wise.

That said, HiRes guidance suggests that later today, surface-based
CAPE will be in the neighborhood of 500-1200 J/kg (perhaps more or
less depending on AM evolution), with weaker shear as the main axis
of the jet will have exited. Despite this, SRH on the order of 150-
250 m2/s2 will linger across a majority of the forecast area. Expect
this afternoon window -- where discrete cells may form ahead of a
more organized line/cluster of storms -- to be the one that carries
our primary chances of seeing any severe hazard (damaging winds,
hail, a tornado). Frontal forcing/convergence is likely to be
stronger later, and may be sufficient to overcome the loss of
daylight/gradual loss of instability and weaker lapse rates. All
this to say, there is a risk for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms for much of north and central Georgia. The Storm
Prediction Center has outlooked a majority of the forecast area
within a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk for severe weather, with
probabilities skewed toward the later window -- generally afternoon
through nightfall. Given shear orientation along the line, the
primary concern will be the potential for damaging gusts with a
lower chance to see some hail in any stronger, more discrete storms.
That said, within any more organized/self-sustaining portions of the
line or any stronger discrete cells ahead of the line, a tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Additionally, progged PWATs of 1.2-1.3" are at/above the 90th
percentile, so any storms that form (regardless of their intensity)
will be efficient rainfall producers. With the potential for
multiple rounds of convection, isolated nuisance is be possible, and
may be exacerbated by continued leaf-fall is urban areas. Widespread
flooding concerns seem unlikely due to our antecedent drought
conditions/dry soils.

Moving into Wednesday, frontal convection will be ongoing across the
southern half of the forecast area through the night, continuing
into the afternoon. Instability will gradually taper off after dark,
but with meager shear remaining, cannot rule out an errant strong to
severe thunderstorm late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Much drier air
will filter in behind the front (dewpoints in the upper-30s to 50s
as opposed to the 60s), so expect fairly rapid clearing into the
afternoon. Most locations will see a return to sunny skies before we
lose daylight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

High pressure will begin building across the Southeast in wake of
the front Wednesday Night promoting drier and cooler weather just in
time for Thanksgiving on Thursday. Forecast high temperatures on
Thursday will range from the upper 40s in North GA to upper 50s
further south. A secondary push of drier and cooler air invades the
region thanks to the main midlevel trough digging across the eastern
US on Thursday. So by Friday morning temperatures are likely to be
at or below freezing across most of North and Central GA warming
only into the 40s and 50s by the afternoon. Temperatures will slowly
warm through the weekend as high pressure remains in place.
Any additional precipitation should hold off until early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

BKN-OVC low-VFR to MVFR to linger thru the morning, with some
lifting back to VFR psbl between rounds of -SHRA/-TSRA. Brief pd
of IFR conds is possible after 07Z tonight. Strong line of TSRA
looks to impact northern TAF sites by 12-13Z, and may be
accompanied by VRB gusts up to 40-45kts. -SHRA will persist on
and off for much of the day and may be accompanied by 5-6SM vsbys
in BR after dark. A second round of -TSRA is psbl beginning
20-21Z, and TEMPOs may need to be adjust forward or backward
depending on evolution behind AM storms. Winds will remain out of
the SE thru 15-16Z, before shifting to the W side. Elevated
magnitudes (7-12kts) and low-end gusts (20-22kts) are likely this
afternoon and evening.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  59  69  36 /  60  80   0   0
Atlanta         74  58  66  37 /  70  80   0   0
Blairsville     64  51  60  28 /  90  90   0   0
Cartersville    73  55  64  32 /  80  90   0   0
Columbus        79  60  71  37 /  40  80   0   0
Gainesville     69  58  66  36 /  80  90   0   0
Macon           81  61  74  37 /  10  60  20   0
Rome            74  56  66  35 / 100  80   0   0
Peachtree City  76  57  67  34 /  60  80   0   0
Vidalia         82  62  77  40 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96