037
FXUS62 KFFC 061806
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
206 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry weather and seasonal temperatures continue today.

 - Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances return Sunday
   continue through most of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026


One more dry day before rain chances return this weekend. A highly
amplified upper level NW flow will turn W through Sunday. Divergent
flow and an ejecting cut-off low off the rockies will bring mid
level vorticity across the southeast. As the upper level flow
shifts eastward, the Bermuda high weakens over the southeast
allowing more effect moisture transport out of the south. PWATs
climb as much as 1 inch (bringing us over 1.5" with >90% confidence)
through Sunday afternoon across western GA. Showers and a few
thunderstorms in northwest GA could begin as early as late Sunday
morning and continue into the evening. Another quick wave, and
retreat of the Bermuda high, will bring rain and thunderstorm
chances to north and northwest GA Monday morning into Tuesday as
well. Instability will be fairly weak. The 25th-75th range for SFC
CAPE sits between 250J/Kg and 750J/Kg, enough to generate some
lightning but no widespread severe. Cloud coverage and convection
timing will be important to how much destabilization actually
occurs. Total rainfall amounts could be spotty with amounts
generally of about 0.1-0.5 inches in northwest GA (lighter to trace
amounts possible into the metro and the I-85 corridor; little to no
precip in east-central GA). Some isolated pockets of up to 1 inch
are possible by Sunday evening. More rainfall likely through the
beginning of the week.

Temperatures remain near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s to near 70 each day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

We pick up Monday in the long term with model guidance showing
decent chances of storms in the CWA with the highest chances across
western and northern Georgia. High PWAT air is back bringing the air
you can wear to us all once again. PWATs are forecast to be well
above 2" across much of the area. Some interesting things are
happening aloft. Going up to the dynamic tropopause offers some
insight - a subtropical wave break squeezes a cut off low PV system
over the 4 corners and Texas which pushes it towards us. This
creates some light forcing via differential vorticity advection and
we see some very slight cooling of the upper levels across north
Georgia that may provide the initial push for some storm development
that could occur as early as the morning hours across north Georgia
given the very deep moisture in place. Little shear means these will
likely be pulse storms in nature, but outflows may help initiate new
convection through the afternoon and evening hours further east and
south.

Tuesday looks like it may be similarly wet as the upper level system
sticks around the area and provides for increased rain chances that
again could get an early morning start across the CWA. Widespread
showers and storms are expected. Cloud cover and rain chances keep
temperatures both Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 80s for most
(could be a bit higher in east central Georgia which may be more
removed from best rain chances and cloud cover). By Wednesday we
will be monitoring to see just how far south a weak front can make
it towards the CWA, which may elevate rain and t-storm chances
across northern Georgia before it stalls as the attendant surface
low moves well off the NE Atlantic shore. For the rest of the long
term, diurnally driven storms look to be what is on tap given
copious moisture that is expected to remain across the area.

Now we come to the discussion we have to have given it keeps showing
up in the guidance. Yep, it`s tropical season. Sigh. As a bit of a
lead up, the CAG (Central American Gyre) is expected to get going
into the middle of next week. These are known for having the
potential to spin up tropical systems early in the season, whether
it be via the gyre itself or bits of vorticity that can spin off it
and develop on their own. We`ve seen the GFS/GEFS start buying in a
bit into the idea that one of these will spin off on the north side
and become a bit of an open tropical wave before moving into the
Gulf by the end of next week. That system slowly develops across
various ensembles into at least a weak tropical system, though where
it goes is highly uncertain given the very weak steering currents in
place. Adding to the uncertainty is the potential development of a
system on the Pacific side, which could have big implications on the
potential track of the open wave and eventual system via the latent
heat pumping out of the system into the subtropical ridge. So, with
all that said - the Gulf should be watched going into next weekend,
but it is far, far too early to be concerned, as there are is simply
too much uncertainty around what development - if any - even looks
like.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR cigs and vsby through most of the period. Winds generally S
to SW at 3 to 7 kts may briefly flip SSE through aftn, becoming
light to vrb overnight. MVFR to low VFR cigs develop Sunday
morning and remain through the day as bkn-sct cu field.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  88  69  85 /   0  10  30  60
Atlanta         69  84  71  83 /   0  20  50  70
Blairsville     63  81  65  79 /   0  20  50  60
Cartersville    68  84  70  83 /   0  40  70  80
Columbus        69  88  71  88 /   0  20  20  30
Gainesville     66  84  69  82 /   0  20  50  70
Macon           67  89  70  87 /   0   0  10  40
Rome            66  82  68  82 /   0  50  70  80
Peachtree City  68  85  70  84 /   0  20  40  70
Vidalia         68  92  72  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...SM