335
FXUS62 KFFC 251855
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Key Messages:

 - Significant severe thunderstorm threat with damaging downburst
   winds expected for north and central Georgia through 2 AM
   tonight.

 - A Heat Advisory remains in place for most of north and central
   Georgia through 8 PM this evening, with far NW Georgia
   continuing through Thursday.

 - Additional thunderstorm activity is expected Thursday afternoon
   and evening, with a lower but still notable risk for damaging
   winds.

Severe Weather Threat Today/Tonight:

A potentially significant severe weather event may unfold this
evening into the early overnight period for portions of north and
central Georgia. The biggest question or pitfall on the threat is
coverage of storms with the lack of forcing mechanism and some
weak capping aloft. We have already seen a few storms over the
higher terrain of north GA break through, and we could see
continued isolated storms over the next few hours. Storm coverage
may increase further after 6PM as the capping aloft weakens and
outflow boundaries from earlier convection start to initiate
storms. Model guidance continues to show potential for a large
cluster or line of storms to develop over SC this evening, and
drift southwest into eastern Georgia between sunset and 2AM. The
18Z sounding at our office summarizes the threat perfectly,
showing a weak cap around 700mb, but otherwise extreme instability
with nearly 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE values over
3500 J/kg. Despite weak bulk shear (15kts or less), any storms
that develop in this type of environment would support very strong
downburst winds in the 60 to 80 mph range, as well as large hail.
SPC has upgraded portions of E GA to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of
5). Storm motions will be out of E/NE (atypical for our area!)
and moving rather slow, unless any large cold pools develop with
storm complexes. With that in mind, can`t rule out a localized
flash flood risk.

Heat Concerns:

Another hot and humid day across north and central Georgia today.
High temperatures should peak between 95 and 100 degrees this
afternoon and combine with the humidity to produce heat index
values between 100 and 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect through 8PM for the entire area. Heat of this magnitude is
potentially hazardous for vulnerable groups like young children,
the elderly and pets. Precautions, such has frequent hydration,
limiting outdoor activities and utilizing AC should be taken to
avoid heat related illnesses. Temperatures on Thursday will be a
few degrees cooler with heat index values in most areas peaking
around 100F. One exception will be across far NW GA, where the
Heat Advisory will continue through Thursday evening with
afternoon heat index values around 103-107 in the valleys.

Severe Weather Threat Thursday:

Thursday will start off with mostly clear skies, but another round
of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is expected as
well as hot and humid conditions. Coverage in storms will be
higher than today as the influence of the ridge lessens and the
upper level low over Florida moves closer. The environment for a
severe threat is less impressive than today, but there will still
be plenty of instability to support damaging wind gusts. SPC
currently has the entire area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5)
for severe weather.

Culver

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
   thunderstorms will be the primary concern through day 7.

 - Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal averages
   this weekend and early next week.

The subtropical high over the western Atlantic will be the
primary force behind Georgia`s weather this weekend and early next
week. We stay in more of an easterly flow Friday to start the
extended but our location on the western edge of high will favor a
light southwest flow through the weekend. This will keep
dewpoints in the 70s through the middle of next week keeping
relative humidity at very summer like levels. This combined with
daytime highs temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area
will keep the atmosphere primed each day for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile the strongest subsidence with
the ridge will remain over the Atlantic also helping afternoon
and evening convection to prosper in the Southeastern U.S. each
day. Instability should be respectable each afternoon (MLCAPE
1000-2500 j/kg), promoting vigorous updrafts with any storms. The
usual lack of summer time shear (0-6 km shear below 15 kt) and
limited mid level lapse rates (5.5 C/km or less) should limit any
threat of severe weather to isolated instances of downburst winds.
Thus widespread severe weather is unlikely.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions to start the period with SCT cu around 050-070
starting to develop. ISO SHRA/TSRA expected to develop after
20-21Z, with potential for SCT TSRA between 00-06Z. Any TSRA that
impact a site will bring very gusty winds today. Winds outside of
TSRA will be 3-6kts or less and fairly variable. Primary direction
at ATL this afternoon will be E/NE before turning W/SW this
evening and overnight. Another round of SHRA/TSRA is possible
after 18Z Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA timing and wind direction. High
confidence on other elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  96  69  91 /  60  60  50  60
Atlanta         74  96  71  91 /  30  60  50  60
Blairsville     66  90  64  87 /  30  60  50  70
Cartersville    71  95  69  91 /  30  50  50  60
Columbus        74  96  71  91 /  30  50  50  60
Gainesville     72  95  69  90 /  40  60  50  60
Macon           73  96  70  91 /  50  60  50  60
Rome            71  95  69  91 /  20  40  40  60
Peachtree City  71  95  68  91 /  30  60  50  60
Vidalia         74  95  71  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
GAZ001>005-011-012-019-020-030.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ007-013-014-
021>025-027-031>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Culver