159
FXUS62 KFFC 040718
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
218 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring increasing coverage of showers and
  thunderstorms today.

- There is a low-end risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
  capable of producing gusty winds and localized flooding over North
  GA.

- Above-normal temperatures continue through Friday with more
  seasonal temperatures returning this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low clouds and scattered light rain showers blanket much of North
and Central Georgia this morning. Soggy, dreary conditions will
persist through the day as shower and thunderstorm coverage
increases as a weak warm front lifts northward and ahead of an
approaching cold front. A tightened pressure gradient between the
approaching system to our west and the wedge that remains over the
area will result in continued gusty winds particularly across North
GA today. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there remains a
low-end risk for a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms capable
of producing gusty winds and localized flooding. Currently, surface
instability may be more limited given cloud cover in place. However,
if any breaks in the clouds occur, instability may increase. While
surface instability is lacking, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and bulk
shear of 30-40kts may support damaging wind gusts with any stronger
storms that occur. Additionally, localized nuisance flooding namely
in low-lying or poor drainage areas will be a potential threat
especially if showers or storms repeatedly move over the same areas
or are slow moving. Overnight into early Thursday morning another
batch of low clouds and fog can be expected. Fog likely impacting
the early Thursday morning commute.

Over the course of the day, this next system will become more
vertically stacked and at the surface occlude and slow down. Thus,
the cold front is likely not to make it through today, keeping at
least a chance for rain in the forecast for many areas through
Thursday.

For today and Thursday temperatures will rise to the upper 60s to
mid 70s and likely reaching 80 across parts of Central GA where
clouds are less prevalent. Overnight temperatures will remain
mild tonight with values in the 60s and 50s at the higher
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

By Friday afternoon and evening the low pressure system will
continue to be situated over the great lakes region putting our area
to the south. Another area of low pressure will round the base of
the trough on Friday before being absorbed into the main flow which
will result in another frontal boundary pushing into Georgia.
Current model guidance points towards limited rain chances (20% or
less) with this system with PWATs around 1 inch forecasted
currently. A jet streak is forecasted to be directly over north
Georgia with this flow which could aid in limited rain chances being
squeezed out. Overall rain chances remain limited with the main
impact into the weekend being colder air being pushed into north
Georgia behind this front. Temperatures will decrease into the 30s
overnight beginning as early as Saturday morning and lasting through
at least Tuesday morning. High temps will also lower into the mid to
upper 60s this weekend. Past this weekend there remains much
uncertainty with rain chances. While the GFS is indicating an
increase in rain chances for Monday and potentially Tuesday with a low
pressure system pushing eastward across the SE, the ECMWF is not
buying into this solution. Will need to keep an eye on these two
solutions as this time frame is likely to be our next chance for
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Cigs continue to lower through tonight, becmg IFR by around
07-10Z over Atlanta metro. LIFR is likely mainly at or shortly
after 12Z. Light showers or drizzle will persist tonight only
increasing in coverage through the morning. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible late morning and through the evening.
SHRA/TSRA will be intermittent. Improvement in cigs during day
tomorrow will be limited - likely only as good as IFR or low MVFR
for all TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  63  77  58 /  70  70  30  30
Atlanta         73  65  76  59 /  90  50  20  20
Blairsville     66  58  73  50 /  90  90  20  10
Cartersville    72  62  76  51 /  90  60  20  10
Columbus        77  66  80  61 /  80  40  20  20
Gainesville     69  65  75  57 /  90  70  30  20
Macon           79  64  81  61 /  70  50  20  30
Rome            73  60  75  49 /  80  50  10  10
Peachtree City  73  63  77  56 /  90  50  20  20
Vidalia         84  66  84  66 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...07