848
FXUS62 KFFC 240814
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 311 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through the middle of
   the upcoming week.

 - Showers and thunderstorms make a return between Tuesday and
   Thursday. Amounts range from less than 1" south of I-85 and
   1-2" in far north Georgia, with isolated pockets of up to 3"
   possible.

 - There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather in
   north Georgia on Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds and hail
   will be the main hazards, though a tornado cannot be ruled
   out.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Over the course of the day today, flow at the mid-levels will shift
from drying northwesterly to moistening southwesterly ahead of
approaching troughing that will bring our next round of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday. At the surface, our presiding high pressure
will slowly be nudged off of the Eastern Seaboard by the
aforementioned mid-level trough. As a result, expecting yet another
dry and tranquil day across north and central Georgia as we sit on
the precipice of a pattern change. Much like the past several
mornings, dense fog has been to develop across our far southern and
southeastern tier, and will likely linger until mixing picks up
around mid-morning. Cloud cover will be on the increase over the
course of the day as moisture increases, but even exiting surface
high pressure will continue to support a warmer than average start
to the week, with highs in the upper 60s to 70s.

Moving into Tuesday, a lifting shortwave embedded in broader mid-
level troughing will support surface cyclogenesis. The resultant
disturbance will trek northeastward across the southern Plains
toward the Great Lakes, phasing with a stronger surface low pressure
system forced by a closed low across the northern Plains. As the low
deepens, the attendant cold frontal boundary spanning a majority of
ECONUS will sharpen and sweep eastward. Ahead of the front, moisture
will continue to rebound, with dewpoints initially in the mid-50s
surging into the 60s by midday. North and central Georgia will be
fairly well-removed from the parent system, but sufficient forcing
should exist to support the development of a line of showers and
thunderstorms that will move from northwest to southeast across the
forecast area during the evening/night on Tuesday.

The parameter space is a bit tricky, and may be subject to the
mismatch that can be typical of evening cool season setups. It is
likely that showers and thunderstorms will begin forming out ahead
of the more quasi-organized line early Tuesday, coincident with the
arrival of best shear (35-40kts). However, development of best --
but still modest -- instability will come with the onset of diurnal
heating. It remains to be seen if the cloud cover associated with
potentially redeveloping convection ahead of the line eats away at
our ceiling instability-wise. Later in the afternoon/evening,
surface-based CAPE is progged to be in the neighborhood of 500-1200
J/kg (perhaps more or less depending on AM evolution), with weaker
shear as the main axis of the jet will have exited. Frontal
forcing/convergence is likely to be stronger later, and may be
sufficient to overcome the loss of daylight/gradual loss of
instability and weak lapse rates. All this to say, for a majority of
the day Tuesday, there will be a low-end risk for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a
majority of the forecast area within a Marginal (level 1 out of 5)
Risk for severe weather, with probabilities skewed toward the later
window. Given shear orientation along the line, the primary concerns
will be the potential for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. That
said, within any more organized/self-sustaining portions of the line
or any stronger discrete cells ahead of the line, a tornado cannot
be ruled out.

Additionally, progged PWATs of 1.2-1.3" on Tuesday are at/above the
90th percentile, so any storms that form (regardless of their
intensity) will be efficient rainfall producers. With the potential
for multiple rounds of convection, isolated nuisance/flash flooding
will be possible, and may be exacerbated by continued leaf-fall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rainfall is likely to be ongoing at the start of the long term
(Tuesday Night) across much of North Georgia and spreading into
Central Georgia. The threat for isolated severe storms may also
linger into late Tuesday and early Wednesday particularly in the
vicinity of the cold front despite waning instability. Damaging
winds look to be the primary hazard and a secondary threat for a
brief tornado. While rainfall totals will be dependent on how
instability fares, given the slower movement of the front and
embedded stronger cells flooding potential will also need to be
monitored. A secondary trough swinging through the Upper Midwest
towards the Great Lakes Region will act to usher the cold front
fully through the forecast area on Wednesday. With the parent low
well removed from the front itself, activity will have trouble
staying organized on Wednesday. Though a very isolated severe threat
still exists for early Wednesday in portions of Central Georgia. In
wake of the front late Wednesday, surface high pressure will build
across the Central and Eastern US promoting drier and cooler weather
late this week. Our next potential for rainfall looks to hold off
until late next weekend.

Warm to mild temperatures on Wednesday will give way to much cooler
temperatures late in the week. Daytime temperatures in the 50s to
low 60s and overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s (likely near or
slightly below freezing in far north GA) return by Thanksgiving
through the end of the week. Temperatures may begin to rebound this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Primarily VFR conditions to continue thru the evening. CSG/MCN are
likely to see at least intermittent SCT to BKN IFR to LIFR cigs
and IFR vsbys in FG/BR between 11-15Z. For northern TAF sites, gradual
deterioration will occur over the course of the TAF pd to BKN
MVFR by 08Z Tuesday. Winds are in the process of shifting to the
NNE, where they will remain at 5-10kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  55  73  60 /   0  10  50  90
Atlanta         72  59  74  61 /   0  20  60  90
Blairsville     64  49  62  52 /   0  40  90 100
Cartersville    72  57  72  56 /   0  30  80  90
Columbus        77  59  79  62 /   0  10  40  90
Gainesville     68  55  68  59 /   0  30  80 100
Macon           76  58  80  61 /   0   0  10  60
Rome            76  60  73  58 /   0  50  90  90
Peachtree City  74  58  75  59 /   0  20  60  90
Vidalia         77  57  81  61 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...96