770
FXUS62 KFFC 091148
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
648 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible today in
   portions of east central Georgia. Primary threat will be
   damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

 - Freeze Warning is in effect for early Monday morning for
   portions of western and northern Georgia.

 - A hard freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning
   across most all of north and central Georgia. A Freeze Watch is
   in effect.

 - Flurries are possible in the north Georgia mountains overnight
   Sunday into early Monday morning. No impacts expected.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

A few showers have progressed across the metro this morning and
are slowly pushing into parts of northeast Georgia and Athens.
Could still see some very isolated showers further south through
the early morning hours, but these will be very sparse. The last
few hours of our relatively warm and moist airmass in place across
north and central Georgia is giving some fog across northern and
eastern Georgia. Currently patchy, but may warrant a full dense
fog advisory given trends. Will be monitoring for this to spread
elsewhere, especially across parts of central Georgia where fog
and some shallow cloud cover is advecting up from the Gulf ahead
of the approaching cold front.

Speaking of the cold front, it is quite distinct on satellite
imagery, already pushing into northern Alabama as of writing. Potent
little shortwave embedded within the larger trough over the
southeast is driving the front into the area. Major reinforcement of
the front will happen today into Monday, as a huge chunk of the
Arctic tropopause will rotate further south, causing the larger
trough to dig even further into the southeast. An Arctic blast is
coming courtesy of this, with Arctic high pressure following the
powerful AVA all the way from Canada into the deep south by the
beginning of the long term Monday Night/Tuesday.

Cold front progressing through the CWA today will create a sharp
juxtaposition in temperatures and weather. Areas in the north and
west will quickly see colder air moving in, and high temperatures
may occur relatively early in the day as CAA starts. In parts of
east central Georgia, will be monitoring for potential
thunderstorms, with an isolated severe storm possible. Temperatures
in these areas will rise into the low 80s, allowing for surface
based convection. MLCAPE values may surge as high as 1000 J/kg
across east central Georgia ahead of the front. Shear from 0-6 km of
40 to 50 kts will allow for some storm maintenance for stronger
updrafts. With relatively straight hodographs, primary concern in
these areas will be a damaging wind gust or two, though
isolated hail up to 1" can`t be ruled out.

The really cold air starts to filter into the area tonight, setting
up a freeze across much of northern and western Georgia. Lows by the
morning will dip into the upper 20s for these areas, colder in the
mountains. A Freeze Warning is in effect. It doesn`t get too much
warmer from there for highs as the reinforcement of the cold air
continues through the day with the sharp CAA. Highs will struggle to
get out of the 30s across north Georgia and parts of the metro.
Highs will remain in the 40s to upper 50s across central Georgia.
This will set us up for the coldest night of the winter so far,
which you can read all about in the long term.

The other impact will be winds. Pressure gradient over the area is
sharp with strong surface high sliding so far south and deepening
low off the Atlantic coast. Expecting it to be quite breezy behind
the front tomorrow and for that to last through Monday. Expect winds
of 10-20 mph with gusts that could approach 30 mph at times. That
will add a nice bite to the colder temps. Prepare to break out
those winter jackets, especially Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

The coldest air of the season will be settling into the forecast
area at the start of the long term period (Monday Night/Tuesday
morning). North and Central GA will be situated at the base of a
deepening longwave trough and on the eastern fringes of building
surface high pressure. Strong CAA will result in frigid overnight
temperatures. The latest forecast has trended a little lower with
forecast values Tuesday morning in the 20s areawide (5-10 degrees
colder in the mountains) with `feels like` temperatures in the teens
(single digits in the mountains). While many locations across North
GA will make it below freezing Sunday Night into Monday morning, the
more impactful cold/freeze is expected the following night that is
Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. Thus, another Freeze Watch was
issued for all of North and Central Georgia during this period. With
this event being the first widespread hard freeze of the season, now
is the time to make your preparations and ensure sure the kiddos are
bundled up for the bus stop Tuesday morning.

Seems models may be slightly underdoing any lingering wrap around
moisture at the higher elevations associated with the closed low as
if begins lifting away from the region Monday Night/Tuesday morning.
Snow flurries and/or light snow showers will be possible during this
time at the higher elevations with any accumulation confined to the
highest peaks.

The closed low and trough will be lifting northeast on Tuesday
bringing a return to NW flow. At this time, the remainder of the
week looks quiet as surface high pressure settles and remains
situated across the Southeast. Another shortwave looks to swing
across the Great Lakes Region around mid-week pushing a dry front
through the region. Otherwise, tranquil weather and warming
temperatures are forecast for North and Central GA Tuesday to
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

IFR with some LIFR impacts across the metro TAF sites this
morning. Expect conditions to improve quickly with sunrise, with
cigs/vsby clearing by 14-15Z. Main impact after this will be
winds. Expecting them to pick up from W to NW at 10-15 kts this
afternoon with gusts of 20-30 kts. This will continue through
tonight into tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  34  43  26 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         70  33  40  26 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     63  24  32  19 /  10  20  10  20
Cartersville    67  29  40  23 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        76  36  47  25 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     69  32  40  26 /   0  10   0   0
Macon           78  37  48  25 /  20   0   0   0
Rome            68  32  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  72  32  42  22 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         81  40  53  27 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>024.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>023-030>034-041>046-052>057-066>068.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Lusk