915
FXUS63 KFGF 211729
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1129 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A more active pattern is possible next week, with the
  potential for minor winter impacts across parts of the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Added a light rain/snow mix in the north for tonight mainly
along the international border but dry air will likely prevent
much from falling and temperatures near freezing would likely
prevent any snowflakes from sticking. Overall impacts should be
minimal but maybe not an entirely dry night for those areas as
was previously being forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 956 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Some high clouds moving in over eastern North Dakota this
morning though no impacts other than tempering how fast temps
climb this morning. No changes made to the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 511 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...Synopsis...

Northwest H5 flow prevails today into Saturday, with ridging
building into the Northern Plains from west to east. This will serve
to bring warmer temperatures into the area today through the
weekend, and into the early part of next week. High temperatures
today will reach the mid 30s to mid 40s, with the coolest temps
expected around Lake of the Woods. For Saturday and Sunday, highs
will reach the mid 40s to low 50s, with similar temps on Monday.
Ensemble consistency has been somewhat stable and in relatively good
agreement through the weekend; however, there is still a good bit of
uncertainty heading into Tuesday. Most ensemble suites are
developing a trough in western Canada, while a separate H5 low forms
in the southwest US. The interaction of these two features will
ultimately determine our impact potential as the two systems move
eastward. At this time, there is a chance for light rain Tuesday
morning, transitioning to snow from west to east, then persisting
through the remainder of the day and into Wednesday morning. It is
worth noting that timing is still rather uncertain as the two
systems are still several days out. Regardless of the precip
scenario, there is higher confidence that cold air will return to
the region by late next week, with temperatures expected to fall
below average heading into Thursday and Friday.

...Winter Weather Possible Next Week...

Two separate systems are expected to interact as we head into the
Monday through Wednesday time frame. A trough is expected to form in
western Canada, then move to the east and southeast into the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A separate H5 trough moves out of
the southwestern US and combines with the northern trough late
Monday or early Tuesday. This should allow moisture return into
the area, with light rain Monday and a transition to rain/snow
mix, then snow Tuesday morning. There is a large range of
solutions regarding rain and snow amounts, which all depend on
when and where the two systems converge, and the strength of the
systems when this happens. Overall, there is increasing
confidence that winter impacts could be in the forecast for
Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, there is a 10 to 20 percent
chance for moderate impacts and a 40 to 50 percent chance for
minor impacts across much of eastern North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota. LREF probs show a 60 percent chance for 1 inch of
snow or greater for most areas north of Highway 2. Winds are
expected to increase as the system departs the region, allowing
for the mention of gusts out of the northwest up to 30 mph. More
details will follow in the coming updates as near term guidance
becomes available and confidence increases in the timing of the
systems.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions prevailing through the period with winds 5-10 mph
this afternoon mainly out of the south turning more westerly
overnight and then NW by Saturday afternoon. A weak low moves
across the Lake of the Woods area tonight bringing lowered BKN
to OVC ceilings around 5-6k ft tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT