760
FXUS63 KFGF 080901
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this afternoon
  and evening in parts of west central Minnesota.

- There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday late
  afternoon through Wednesday morning. All hazards are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Did add the level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms per SPC for
parts of west central MN for this afternoon and evening.

UPDATE
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

500 mb short wave noted in west central MN moving north at 07z.
The coverage of showers and t-storms has been increasing just
east of the Red River thru northwest and west central MN and
expect decent coverage of showers and t-storms in this area thru
at least mid morning before things move off to the east.
Lingering chances for a shower or t-storm to continue over parts
of MN (mainly west central) thru the day into tonight. Severe
weather is not anticipated with these. Line of storms moving
east from this past evening and mostly dissipated in the DVL
basin around midnight but southern end has maintained some
strength enough for borderline severe wind gusts 05z-07z period
in south central ND into SD but these have been diminishing too.

Net result is for Monday no severe outlooks in our area. Tuesday
remains the focus for late day and especially nighttime severe
depending on what scenario prevails. The 00z model suite
suggests supercells initially SE Sask into western ND forming a
line and moving quickly east Tues night with a better chance for
it to remain strong as low level jet is 45 kts vs tonights 30
kts.


UPDATE
Issued at 803 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Strongest winds across our west are well under advisory criteria
and with sunset approaching the probability for gusts 45 mph+
from synoptic winds/mixing has ended within the advised area.
The Wind Advisory was allowed to expire as scheduled at 8pm.

There have been a couple pockets of isolated weak thunderstorms
in southeast ND and west central MN with this activity quickly
weakening with sunset. We are continuing to monitor upstream
activity to the west which is timed out to approach the Devils
Lake Basin closer to midnight. There is still a chance that some
of this activity will carry a severe wind risk, though guidance
continues to trend towards rapid weakening of any ongoing
thunderstorms as they enter our CWA as the environment in latest
guidance after 03Z is much less supportive of a sustained severe
risk farther east.

Evolution of the activity as it approaches and ultimate how
quickly our CWA stabilizes ahead of any clusters or thunderstorm
lines will determine severe potential and we will continue to
monitor trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...Synopsis...

Temperatures this afternoon are reaching the upper 80s to low 90s,
with the expectation of 90-95 degrees in the next several hours.
Heat index values are expected to top out just below 100 degrees in
the Red River Valley this afternoon. Tonight`s temps will cool into
the 60s to near 70 degrees, but will depend on shower and
thunderstorm activity. Strong to severe thunderstorms are still
expected to form in western and central North Dakota this afternoon
and evening, then move east during the late evening and overnight.
Another boundary lifts northward along a low level jet, bringing
additional showers and storms into much of west central and
northwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong storms will be possible
through Monday morning. Slightly cooler highs are expected Monday,
with widespread upper 70s to mid 80s.


...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Tonight through Wednesday...

Late Evening through Monday Morning: Thunderstorms are expected to
develop in western and central North Dakota this afternoon, then
move into eastern North Dakota this evening and overnight. At this
time, there is uncertainty with regards to how strong these storms
will be once they enter the region. MLCAPE values along the axis are
ranging from 3000-3500 J/Kg in northwest North Dakota; however, many
of the storms are likely to move away from this axis upon
development. Conditions become slightly less favorable for MCS
maintenance further to the east, as low to mid level shear fall
quickly in eastern North Dakota. The most likely scenario for severe
storms this evening will be a weakening line of severe storms, with
the most likely hazard being damaging wind gusts (potentially
significant) and hail. DCAPE values are upwards of 1500 J/Kg across
much of the state through at least late evening, allowing the rapid
progression of any storms still ongoing as they move into the Devils
Lake Basin. As this feature moves east, another area of showers and
storms is expected to form in northwest Minnesota and west central
Minnesota. These storms could bring strong, if not occasionally
severe impacts to that area overnight and into early Monday morning,
with large hail and wind gusts upwards of 60 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture advection remains strong heading
into Tuesday as low level flow increases out of the south. SBCAPE in
model soundings ranges from 3000 J/Kg to 4000 J/Kg, with low to mid
level shear ranging from 20 to 40 knots. Guidance has been
consistent over the past several runs, with good support for
Supercell development just west of the CWA Tuesday afternoon. Strong
environmental support exists for rapid upscale development into a
linear MCS or QLCS. Model soundings show strong support for all
hazards across a large portion of eastern North Dakota, northwest
Minnesota, and west central Minnesota. DCAPE values, effective
shear, lapse rates, and CAPE are all within a range that encourage
MCS maintenance through the late afternoon, evening, and early
overnight. As such, a mention of damaging wind gusts (potentially
significant), tornadoes, and large hail are all supported.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Thunderstorm chances overspread the region overnight into the
early morning hours as two different systems move through the
region (one from western ND and the other from southern MN.

As several fronts pass through the region shower and
thunderstorm chances decrease Monday morning, however a period
of stratus (MVFR and locally IFR) may impact the region before
improving back to VFR west to east Monday afternoon. Winds shift
to the southwest then west-northwest as these fronts pass
through the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR