163
FXUS63 KFGF 272328
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
628 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread soaking rains are expected Monday into Tuesday.
  There is a 60-90 percent chance for 1 or more inches of rain
  across portions of eastern North Dakota into northwest
  Minnesota, with slightly lower chances in west central
  Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...Synopsis...

Mid level clouds continue to work slowly to the east this afternoon,
with otherwise mostly clear skies. Look for increasing cloud cover
tonight as our next system approaches the region. H5 upper low will
move into the Northern Plains on Monday, into an environment
supportive of moderate to heavy rain. Mixing ratios range from 10-12
g/Kg by Monday afternoon, with a relatively strong theta-e gradient
boundary stretching from southwest to northeast across the
eastern half of North Dakota. Embedded thunderstorm activity is
expected as CAPE values will be in the 300-700 J/Kg range. Areas
along an axis from Cooperstown to Grand Forks, to Roseau have
the best chances for 1 or more inches of rain (80-90%), with
slightly lower chances on either side. High temperatures on
Monday will be in the upper 50s along the International Border,
with low 70s in the southern Red River Valley. Heading into
Tuesday, rain gradually moves off to the east, with minimal
chances for precipitation through the remainder of next week.
Cooler temperatures are expected from Thursday onward, with
highs in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across eastern ND and
northwest MN through this evening into the overnight period,
with only a low chance for patchy fog impacts in far southeast
ND/west central MN (well south of KFAR). Aviation impacts
increase as a result of a slow moving but strong system that
will bring widespread rain and at least a chance for
thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Best chances for moderate to
heavy rain (and associated vis reductions) along with IFR
ceilings will be KDVL-KGFK-KTVF corridor based on where
guidances shows the strongest consensus on placement of most
organized banding of rain. I held off on introducing thunder
mention as the coverage of embedded thunderstorms may be
isolated to widely scattered with rain/rain showers
predominant.

Light northerly winds become variable this evening with weak
flow in place and shift to the east-southeast 8-14kt as low
pressure builds east Monday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR