065
FXUS63 KFGF 061836
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
136 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost advisory and freeze warning impacts early Tuesday
  morning and early Wednesday morning over portions of eastern
  North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...Synopsis...
The storm track will remain across Canada into the weekend,
with a couple systems propagating across Canada through the
week. The main impact for our region will be a cold front that
sweeps through the region tonight bringing a colder airmass and
frost/freeze potential Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Into the
weekend, a trough will build into the western CONUS, with
multiple scenarios existing for how this trough develops and
evolves (which affects timing and magnitude of shower chances
into early next week). The probability is very low for
advisory/warning type impacts.

...Frost/Freeze Impacts...
For Tuesday morning, a cold front will propagate through the
region overnight. There will likely be a period of increased
winds with the fropa, and then building low level ridging.
Mixing across the northern CWA will rapidly decrease by sunrise,
with the SFC high directly over the Devils Lake basin. Thus,
freezing warning (<=32F) for a portion of the Devils Lake basin
with a frost advisory (33F-36F) elsewhere where winds will be
lighter after 4am. Note that there is a low chance (30%) for 32F
or colder within the frost advisory.

For Wednesday morning, timing is not perfect for a freeze
warning as much of the region will be within return flow by some
point overnight. The question is whether temperatures will drop
fast enough in the evening to be able to drop to freezing
temperatures. There is ~50% chance for 32F or colder
temperatures from portions of the valley eastward, so will go
with a freeze watch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Westerly low level flow
through the evening into the overnight, with a weak cold front
switching winds to more of a northerly direction by Tuesday
morning (although winds remaining below 12 knots for the most
part).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     NDZ008-016-026>030.
     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for NDZ008-016-027-029-030.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-054.
MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023.
     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...TG