625
FXUS63 KFGF 180924
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
424 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat advisory may be needed for some portions of eastern North
  Dakota into the Red River valley Sunday afternoon.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Sunday evening. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts
  to 60 mph would be the primary threats.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected today and
  Sunday across north central Minnesota. Near critical to
  critical fire weather conditions may in this are for Monday
  and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

High pressure moving into the area today. Light winds all day
today and with that there is patchy fog around at sunrise. Other
than that a warmer day today with smoke forecasts indicating the
surface smoke and upper level smoke not much of a factor today.
Sunday will be a warm to hot day with highs widespread in the
lower 90s and with dew pts mid 60s to around 70 heat indices of
around 100 is forecast for much of eastern ND into RRV with WBGT
in the low 80s. So heat advisory may be needed Sunday afternoon.

This warm to hot airmass is out ahead of a cold front that will
move into southern Manitoba into central ND roughly near a
Portage la Prairie to Rugby to west of Bismarck area Sunday
evening. Scattered storms are anticipated to form along it with
to our west and move into the area Sunday night. How long
severity will last into the overnight is in question but
sufficient 0-6 km shear of 45-55 kts (via NAM) should be enough
to main severe risk thru 06z as storms move thru NE ND into the
northern RRV.

Kept user requested SPS for this afternoon and early evening for
forested areas of NW MN due to near critical fire weather
conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper level ridging that has been in place across the CONUS will
continue to be a primary focus for the evolution of the pattern in
our CWA and sensible weather impacts. The ridge has weekend compared
to previous days, with the main axis is currently to the west over
the Rockies. Northwest flow is currently in place, with a cold front
actively passing through the region this afternoon (currently
southeast of Fargo). This wash out/stall and eventually a warm
front/baroclinic zone lifts back into tour CWA Saturday into Sunday. A
stronger trough passage in Canada Monday night into Tuesday
eventually result in much deeper northerly flow developing and
seasonably mild temperatures returning. A strong cold front passes
through the region Monday and Tuesday bringing periods of windy
conditions, with near advisory wind gusts as the front passes. The
ridge does eventually rebound late next week, though the eights will
tend to be lower than the previous rendition of the ridge. The storm
track does not currently favor organized/widespread precipitation
events, though weaker synoptic forcing combined with mesoscale
effects could still result in periodic shower/thunderstorm chances
during the 7 day period.

...Air Quality Impacts Today...

The main area of wildfire smoke causing unhealthy air quality is
immediately behind the passing cold front with smoke concentrations
decreasing northwest to southeast with mixing/clearing. The shift in
flow should generally keep additional surface level smoke from
moving back into the region after this area of smoke clears this
evening. Additional smoke may still circulate back into the region
from the north-northeast mainly aloft, with little indication in
smoke models or upstream obs of additional surface level smoke
impacts tonight/Saturday.

...Severe Thunderstorm Risk Late Sunday...

Initially the main frontal zone and any synoptic forcing appears to
be in Canada Sunday with either strong capping for limited local
instability due to deeper mixing/drier air ahead of the main wave.
However, deeper moisture return in southerly flow along with steep
mid level lapse rates results in increasing instability Sunday
evening and Sunday night ahead of the approaching cold front and
strong effective shear and turning hodographs could support elevated
supercell or even smaller MCS/clusters with wind threat related to
upscale development. As forcing and general coverage will be
uncertain until much later, and potentially dependent on upstream
initiation the severe risk remains conditional. Still, this will be a
period to monitor (Sunday evening-early Monday morning).

...Fire Weather Saturday through Tuesday...

There continues to be concerns regarding very dry fuels in forested
areas by fire weather partners/fuels experts in MN specifically
regarding Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Hubbard counties in our
CWA. Warmer temperatures and RH around 40% may be enough for any fire
starts to spread rapidly in forested areas across those counties
even with less winds as forecast, and near critical fire weather
conditions are expected there both Saturday and Sunday afternoons and
early evenings (SPS currently out for Saturday periods). As the cold
stronger trough in Canada approaches early in the week, along with
the strong cold front, surface gradient increases along with
stronger mixed layer winds during periods of lowest RH values (30-
45%) Monday and Tuesday. This raises the potential for Critical Fire
Weather conditions/RFW conditions to develop and those periods are
being closely monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR skies tonight with some lingering smoke that looks to
mostly clear the area by noon Saturday. Smoke will occasionally
limit visibility to 6sm or less but limited confidence in when
or where more significant impacts such as MVFR vis may occur.
Winds otherwise will be 10kts or less through the period
creating minimal impacts to flight operations.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT