619
FXUS63 KFGF 280444
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain across the region Wednesday morning and afternoon, with
  the highest amounts across west central and northwest
  Minnesota.

- Seasonable high temperatures in the 40s and 50s will be
  common through the week, with slightly above average highs
  late weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...Synopsis...

The trough that has brought precipitation to the region
overnight into this morning (and a few lingering pockets of
drizzle in north central MN) is transitioning to the north,
while the next shortwave trough that will bring rain chances
Wednesday is centered over Oregon upstream. After the next wave
passes Wednesday a large upper low and persistent trough pattern
is shown to remain entrenched upstream over the Pacific
Northwest, with a general SW flow pattern across the central
Rockies towards the Northern Plains. Our immediate region will
tend to be under broader ridging within this split-southwest
flow pattern initially keeping more active tracks and rain
chances out of the region. However as the more active SW flow
pattern builds east towards the weekend there are general rain
chances which increase as the larger upper low/trough finally
moves east of the Rockies into early next week. Current
consensus keeps this to the south, however there is still a
broad precipitation signal with this pattern change. Due to
above average air mass remain in place there continues to be a
signal/trend towards only rain.

...Rain on Wednesday...

The shortwave trough over Oregon quickly progresses across
Rockies and into the Northern Plains overnight tonight into
Wednesday morning and increasing forcing for ascent, moisture
return, and some instability should support increasing rain
coverage particularly in MN head of an associated frontal zone.
There may be enough instability for some thunderstorm activity
across west central MN which could contribute to localized
higher rain totals. Strong/severe storms are not anticipated
this far north with any potential for higher instability farther
south. General totals will be lighter for most areas with probs
for 0.1" and 0.25" high east of the RRV but probability in
NBM/HREF for 0.5" lower (20-30% in our far east) and likely
dependent on convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Conditions remain variable but a mostly a mix of MVFR to IFR
with patchy LIFR lasting through 18z today. Some advection fog
will exist across all sites (except KDVL) through 18z through
likely 1-3sm at most times. Occasionally may dip below 1sm but
not high enough confidence in when or where to put in the taf
right now. Rain moving in the SW spreading NE from 12z to 00z
with winds turning from southerly to westerly by 18z in eastern
ND and all sites by the end of the period. Gusts briefly
topping 20kts at DVL from 18z to 00z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT