174
FXUS63 KFGF 091220
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
720 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening
 into early Wednesday morning. Significant wind gusts 60 to 75
 mph or higher will be te main threat, along with a risk of hail
 up to golf balls and possibly a tornado.

-Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon climb into the upper 80s to
 low and mid 90s. Those working outside or exercising in
 directly sunlight or those sensitive to heat will experience
 impacts.

-There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
 afternoon east of the Red River.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
Warm front is lifting north/northwest is at 10z was located
from near Lisbon to just south/east of Fargo up toward Fosston
to Waskish. Scattered t-storms continue to develop on the edge
of this warm front as it moves north, with new development
taking place now near TRF and Fosston to Red Lake. Did update
pops for this as the chc of storms farther south in west central
MN has ended. Would expect chance of storms to exit 12z-14z.

Otherwise little change in SPC outlooks for today and Wednesday
and overall thinking from previous AFD is valid.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper low across southwest Canada with resultant west coast trough
will slowly propagate eastward through the week. As this happens
anticipate upper waves to eject into the central CONUS bringing
multiple rounds of precipitation, severe storms, stronger
southerly winds, and heat impacts. Ensemble guidance in good
agreement with the evolution of this pattern, although
uncertainty remains with how quickly this overall pattern
evolves and where upper waves eject into the central CONUS
(along with meso features for severe potential).


...This Evening`s Severe Potential...

There is a marginal risk for severe storms across west central
Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Most CI may be more toward
midnight tied to a weak upper level wave, but could happen along the
lingering boundary as well. At any rate, environment is
supportive for marginal severe hail given MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg
and effective shear around 25-30 knots.


...Tuesday`s Severe and Heat Potential...

The stronger upper wave that will lead to CI has been delayed by
most guidance. Ensemble guidance (HREF & REFS) indicate a wide
variety of scenarios. The most favorable scenario at this time would
appear to indicate the surface low/warm front and CI will be near
the the ND/MT border (mid-afternoon). Anything that happens out west
would evolve into a linear complex. By the time the complex reaches
eastern North Dakota (after 7pm), the environment would be
supportive of significant wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes
(given the very strong instability, deep layer shear, low level
shear perpendicular to the complex, mid-level speed max, strong
DCAPE, etc.). Of course, other lower probability scenarios
exist, depending on the track/timing of the upper level wave
which will influence where the best severe threat exists.

Ahead of the severe threat anticipate stronger southerly winds along
and west of the valley, with a mixed layer up to around 850mb with
mixed layer winds 30-40 knots. Potential for advisory criteria is
lower at this point, but if mixing is efficient wind advisory
criteria possible (30% chance).

Other concern ahead of the severe threat is heat. Although heat
index values will remain below 100F, WBGT and HeatRisk would
indicate that those working outside in direct sunlight or those
sensitive to heat will be impacted.

...Wednesday`s Severe Potential...

Much of Wednesday`s severe risk is dependent on how
Tuesday/Wednesday morning evolves. With that said, the main upper
trough tied to the upper low across Canada will swing through
providing stronger forcing by afternoon. Potential for a spicy day
does exist given the stronger mid-upper level winds, especially if
instabilty is able to recover.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

I kept a lot from the previous 06z TAFs including approximate
timing of line of storms moving in from the west this evening. I
pushed timing back about 1 hour at DVL, FAR and GFK but
maintained the prob30 and severe wind gust. That time will be
fine tuned I am sure by 18z TAFs. Until then outside of some AC
this morning in NW MN a day with some high clouds and maybe high
based CU. Winds becoming southeast all areas 15-30 kts...lower
speeds BJI.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...Riddle