300
FXUS63 KFGF 012319
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
519 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures through next week.

- There is the potential for a more active period towards the
  end of next week. Predictability in impacts is currently low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...Synopsis...

Southerly winds prevail this afternoon and evening as shortwave H5
ridging develops along northwest flow. A much warmer air mass moves
into the Northern Plains heading into Monday, with highs climbing
well into the 30s to mid 40s from north to south.

Slightly cooler temps are in store for Tuesday as a weak trough
traverses the flow and the ridge flattens. Warmer temps return on
Wednesday as low level flow turns westerly, allowing afternoon
temperatures to reach well into the 50s across parts of southeast
North Dakota and the southern Red River Valley. Temps will be
slightly cooler for areas north of Highway 200, generally in the mid
30s to low 40s.

A range of potential forecast solutions begins to emerge from
Thursday onward, as zonal flow turns slightly southwest. There is a
large amount of ensemble disagreement surrounding how amplified the
southwest flow actually becomes, with some members hanging onto
zonal flow well into the weekend. In either case, there is a signal
in a pattern change and a more active period; however, details
will largely depend on several factors that are yet to be
resolved in synoptic models. At this time, overall
predictability is very low, with a general trend towards
potential impacts somewhere in the Northern Plains and/or Upper
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

As a band of WAA moves east some low level saturation will
result in patchy MVFR for all terminals along and east of the
Red River through 06z. As this clears LLWS is expected with
30-40kts of SW shear from 06-12z for those same sites. surface
winds southerly at 5-10kts with winds around 2000ft SW at
40-50kts. Ceilings by this time VFR but the LLWS will certainly
be notable and likely impactful. VFR and winds generally under
12kts after 12z tomorrow for a low impact day of flying.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT