067
FXUS63 KFGF 131240
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
740 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers chances Tuesday to Friday. Probability of 0.75
  inch qpf Wed-Fri 50 percent northeast ND. This rainfall may
  impact the ongoing harvest.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 738 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Clouds from north central ND moving east but dissipate as they
do so after DVL. Still think some CU will form in the north with
daytime heating in lingering 850 mb moisture as shown in GFS and
NAM forecast soundings for GFK this aftn. Otherwise all looking
good and winds have settled down.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...Synopsis...

Surface low continues to move northeast thru Manitoba and is
located in northeast Manitoba at 08z. Period of wind gusts and
cold advection went thru the area in the mid to late evening
producing a period of wind gusts 50-55 mph Devils Lake, Langdon
and Wahalla ND 0230z-0430z with wind gusts 40-49 mph in most
other locations in the 03z-05z period. Gusty winds continue but
speeds less and wind speeds will lower thru the day as low moves
northeast away from the area. Thus wind advisory that was left
for Devils Lake basin expired at 4 am. Monitoring area of
stratocu moving southeast and east around the upper low in
central Manitoba but as the low moves north the 850 mb moisture
layer does weaken today. Plus thicker stratocu having a hard
time making it much farther south and east than Baudette-Thief
River Falls-Grafton-New Rockford. Would expect some dayime
heating CU today with residual 850 mb moisture north, after
thicker early morning clouds in the north move out. Anticipate a
sunny day southeast ND and west central MN. Highs today mostly
low to mid 50s, but some upper 40s far north. Tonight high
pressure will build into western Manitoba with high pressure
ridge southeast into northern MN giving light winds, clear sky
and allowing temps to drop likely a few degrees below guidance.
So based on collab with DLH did trend toward NBM90/75 for lows
tonight in NW MN. Clouds moving northward into southeast ND will
keep this area closer to guidance.

Tuesday thru the end of the week will feature several days with
chances for showers as a deep 500 mb trough over the western US
affects our weather with region in southwest flow. One weak
short wave to bring some rain showers Tuesday mainly though
south and western ND and into SD, central MN. NBM which was used
for pops are a bit drier in northeast ND/northwest MN Tuesday
than GFS which does bring chance of showers to the Canadian
border Tues aftn/eve.

Stronger 500 mb wave that will be over southern California will
move northeast and is forecast to be in western ND into Manitoba
via GFS, with 00z ECMWF a bit farther west. GFS ensembles
support a sligh west track for Wed late into Friday morning with
track of system. Shower chances increase with likely pops
Thursday over all the region, with heaviest rainfall with 50 pct
probs of more than 0.75 inch centered in northeast into central
ND 12z Wed to 12z Fri. Warm sector east of the system over our
area with MU CAPES reaching 500 j/kg and high temps around 70 in
southern RRV Thursday so do have a chance for t-storms, though
no severe weather anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 738 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR today. Still gusty west winds at times today...but overall
diminishing trend. A few CU in northeast ND and northwest MN
with daytime heating, with lingering morning BKN CU deck in DVL
basin.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle