624
FXUS63 KFGF 082349
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
649 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across portions
 of west central Minnesota this evening.

-There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening
 into Wednesday morning. Significant wind gusts over 80 mph
 will be the main threat, along with a few tornadoes.

-Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon climb into the 90s. Those
 working outside or exercising in directly sunlight or those
 sensitive to heat will experience impacts.

-There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
 afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper low across southwest Canada with resultant west coast trough
will slowly propagate eastward through the week. As this happens
anticipate upper waves to eject into the central CONUS bringing
multiple rounds of precipitation, severe storms, stronger
southerly winds, and heat impacts. Ensemble guidance in good
agreement with the evolution of this pattern, although
uncertainty remains with how quickly this overall pattern
evolves and where upper waves eject into the central CONUS
(along with meso features for severe potential).


...This Evening`s Severe Potential...

There is a marginal risk for severe storms across west central
Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Most CI may be more toward
midnight tied to a weak upper level wave, but could happen along the
lingering boundary as well. At any rate, environment is
supportive for marginal severe hail given MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg
and effective shear around 25-30 knots.


...Tuesday`s Severe and Heat Potential...

The stronger upper wave that will lead to CI has been delayed by
most guidance. Ensemble guidance (HREF & REFS) indicate a wide
variety of scenarios. The most favorable scenario at this time would
appear to indicate the surface low/warm front and CI will be near
the the ND/MT border (mid-afternoon). Anything that happens out west
would evolve into a linear complex. By the time the complex reaches
eastern North Dakota (after 7pm), the environment would be
supportive of significant wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes
(given the very strong instability, deep layer shear, low level
shear perpendicular to the complex, mid-level speed max, strong
DCAPE, etc.). Of course, other lower probability scenarios
exist, depending on the track/timing of the upper level wave
which will influence where the best severe threat exists.

Ahead of the severe threat anticipate stronger southerly winds along
and west of the valley, with a mixed layer up to around 850mb with
mixed layer winds 30-40 knots. Potential for advisory criteria is
lower at this point, but if mixing is efficient wind advisory
criteria possible (30% chance).

Other concern ahead of the severe threat is heat. Although heat
index values will remain below 100F, WBGT and HeatRisk would
indicate that those working outside in direct sunlight or those
sensitive to heat will be impacted.

...Wednesday`s Severe Potential...

Much of Wednesday`s severe risk is dependent on how
Tuesday/Wednesday morning evolves. With that said, the main upper
trough tied to the upper low across Canada will swing through
providing stronger forcing by afternoon. Potential for a spicy day
does exist given the stronger mid-upper level winds, especially if
instabilty is able to recover.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Main concern within the taf period will be a morning sct to bkn
deck at MVFR with increasing winds through the late morning into
the afternoon with a chance for gusts over 30kts after 15z.
Thunderstorms from and expected widespread severe weather event
will begin to work in the DVL lake around the end of the period.
Threw in a prevailing TSRA at 22z to give a heads up but timing
is still likely to shift between now and then.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...TT