433
FXUS63 KFGF 100848
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
348 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers are expected Sunday and Sunday night with
  potential impacts to outdoor activities Sunday afternoon and
  evening.

- A period of strong winds may impact locations along and west
  of the Red River Valley Sunday afternoon through Monday
  morning. There is a 30 percent chance for wind gusts greater
  than 45 mph during that period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper trough is now east of our CWA with north-northwest flow
and a weak cold front brining cooler (seasonal) temperatures back to
the region today. A mid/upper level ridge is building into the
Northern Plains from the west through the afternoon, keeping dry
conditions and generally clear conditions. A large upper low off the
Pacific Northwest coast eventually moves into the western US with
broad troughing developing over the Northern Rockies and SW flow
over the Northern Plains Saturday into Sunday bringing increased
rain chances and a period of WAA and return to temperatures in the
70s before dropping again behind a stronger cold front Sunday night.
This initial trough shifts east, with our region on the northern
fringe of southern CONUS ridging or split flow which lowers
confidence in rain chances at least during the first half of the
week. Mid/upper troughing rebuilds in the western US midweek and
ensembles support this general trend and signal for southwest flow
followed by troughing build towards our region during the second
half of the week and weekend. There is still quite a bit of spread
in the evolution of the western CONUS ridge and timing/evolution of
waves that may propagate into our region. Besides timing/coverage of
rainfall and temperatures at this range there isn`t a signal for any
other notable impacts from the various clusters.

...Rain showers Sunday and Sunday night...

SW flow brings increase WAA and moisture advection to the region,
with ensemble PWATs exceeding the 99th percentile of model
climatology (1-1.5"). The track of the most organized deformation
near the 700MB low is shown to track to our north and northwest,
though this could clip part of our CWA as it transitions through
Manitoba. WAA a deep moisture along a theta-e axis, along with
unseasonable elevated instability (500-800 J/KG), will support
periods of showers Sunday and Monday with the best signal along and
east of the Red River Valley (60-80% chances for at least 0.1"). The
amount of instability could support isolated thunderstorms embedded
within the clusters of of showers that develop.

...Strong wind Sunday afternoon and Sunday night...

As the main mid level low tracks to the north along with the surface
low Sunday afternoon through Sunday night a dry slot and period of
stronger subsidence moves into eastern ND, along with a period of
strong CAA, allowing for increased mixing/momentum transfer. Increase
westerly flow at the base of the trough would bring higher winds
within the upper portion of the potential dry adiabatic mixed layer
a period of stronger winds may develop. The strongest surface
gradient and pressure rises would be north, lowering confidence in a
longer duration wind event considering the strongest signal may be
after sunset for parts of the region. NBM probabilities for wind
gusts greater than 45 mph are in the 20-30% range mainly along and
west of the RRV. Looking at winds aloft and deterministic model
soundings/BUFKIT momentum transfer there is potential that we could
tap into gusts near 58 mph (warning) and ECWMF EFI does show values
0.8 or higher over the far northwest part of our CWA which
correlates with similar potential impacts. That will be a period
to monitor as we get closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Limited aviation impacts will be the story for the TAF period.
Winds will diminish through the day tomorrow beneath prevailing
VFR conditions. By the end of the TAF period, southerly winds
will be working their way into the region from west to east but
only making it to DVL by 06z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Perroux