600
FXUS63 KFGF 021920
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
220 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Other than a few light rain showers tonight into Saturday,
  mostly dry conditions and near to slightly above average
  temperatures through the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...Synopsis...

West to northwest flow aloft with one weak shortwave entering
northwestern ND and another, stronger wave further upstream
over the Northern Rockies. That stronger shortwave will move out
into the Plains on Saturday, pushing a surface trough axis into
the Red River Valley. That shortwave moves quickly off to the
Great Lakes, leaving northwesterly flow and surface high
pressure for the later part of the weekend. West to
northwesterly flow aloft continues into the upcoming work week.
Some weak embedded shortwaves are not completely out of the
question, but overall the pattern seems to be drying out as we
head into the first full week of October. Some of the ensemble
members are pretty amplified with upper ridging setting up over
or just west of the Plains, but overall ECMWF EFI shows
temperature signals just slightly on the warm side of average
towards the middle and end of next week.

...Light rain tonight/tomorrow then dry and somewhat warmer...

Most of the high resolution models bring two rounds of light
rain, the first late this afternoon and tonight with the warm
air advection and weak lead shortwave, and the second round with
the stronger shortwave and surface trough axis. Regional radar
and surface obs show some of the CAMs are already overdoing the
first round, so not expecting much more than a few sprinkles at
best. Better chances for some light rain later tonight into
tomorrow. Probabilities of at least some measurable
precipitation are high along and north of Highway 200, and there
is even some 30 to 40 percent chances of seeing more than a
quarter of an inch in northwestern MN. Probabilities for
measurable rain drop off quite a bit after tomorrow. There is
over 70 percent probability of 36 degrees or less in portions of
our northern counties as well as our cold spots Monday morning.
However, warming trend after that with temps returning to
slightly above average values. There is even some low (20
percent) chances for far southeastern ND to see 80 degrees,
although that looks like a bit of an outlier.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the period as clear skies
give way to some mid and high clouds. Some showers moving
through late this afternoon and evening and again on Saturday,
but not confident enough except at KDVL to include in the TAFs
at this point. Winds that are light and variable at some
locations will steady out of the south to southeast tonight,
then pick up with some gusts close to 20 kts tomorrow morning.
Some shift to the southwest and west starting at the tail end of
the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR