915
FXUS63 KFGF 180430
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1130 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Medium chance for soaking rainfall far southeast North Dakota
  into west-central Minnesota. Chance for 1 inch or more of rain
  around 30 percent.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...Synopsis...

Weak shortwave trough moving through zonal flow aloft will bring
medium chance for rain Friday, mainly near the SD border/tri-
state area into west-central MN. There is also a low chance for
showers in northeast ND into far northern Red River Valley
Friday. More details on amounts can be found below.

Thereafter into the weekend and next week, upper flow becomes
relatively week amid upper ridging into central Canada. Ensemble
guidance also suggests a weak, disorganized shortwave upper
trough gradually sliding west to east out of the Northern
Rockies through the Central Plains into mid-Mississippi Valley.
This present a weak Rex-block-type pattern late weekend into
early/mid next week. This trend in guidance has decreased rain
chances for our area this weekend, ultimately offering a now
mostly dry weekend forecast. This will also keep temperatures
near average through at least mid next week.

Into mid/late next week, guidance suggests either continued
weak upper ridging or zonal flow aloft. Both scenarios suggest
temperatures trending near average to slightly above average;
the former would favor mostly dry conditions, with the later
scenario bringing at least a slight uptick in rain chances with
the possibility of progressive shortwave troughs moving through
the region out of the Pacific Northwest.

...Rain chances Friday...

Guidance continues to keep the lion`s share of soaking rainfall
south of our area Friday. There is still a subset of guidance
that eeks the northern fringes of moderate to briefly heavy
rainfall into locations near the SD border/tri-state area into
west-central MN. Should this occur, rainfall totals may reach
into the 0.8-1.5 inch range. There is around a 30% chance for
this to occur. Otherwise, most likely amounts are expected to
remain less than 0.5 inches. The chance for 3 or more inches
remains very low/nill at this time.

Timing for rainfall in southeast ND into west-central MN begins
Friday morning around sunrise, lingering through early to mid
afternoon.

A separate area of showers are expected to develop in portions
of north-central ND into SK/MB Friday. This could spread into
northeast ND and the far northern Red River Valley. Rain amounts
will be light, only up to a few hundredths, if this occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and most of
northwest MN through the early overnight. There is still a low
chance for radiational fog development over parts of north
central ND where winds are more likely to remain calm and brief
vis reductions and potential stratus impacts could occur at KBJI
before 12z (winds begin to increase and help mixing after 12Z).

A low pressure system building into the region from the
southwest of our region will result in winds shifting to the
southeast and increasing to around 11-15kt across the region
Friday. This will also bring showers/isolated thunderstorm
activity to far southeast ND and west central MN (30% chance for
showers at KFAR). The increase in low level moisture will
result in MVFR stratus spreading north, with the best chance for
impacts at KFAR and KBJI and lower at other terminals in
northeast ND and northwest MN (still a low chance for brief
impacts at KDVL and KGFK).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR