998
FXUS63 KFGF 301956
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
256 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light rain showers and drizzle are expected mainly
  south of US Highway 2 during the day Saturday, lingering into
  the evening.

- Widespread rain is expected across the region Monday into
  Tuesday, with medium to high chances for at least 0.5" of
  rainfall.

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue, particularly Sunday
  and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge is building into the Northern Plains with a
southwest flow pattern. This will trend temperatures toward
above average, particularly by Sunday and Monday. Water vapor
satellite imagery shows a plume of moisture moving northward
into the region to allow for low level clouds to begin
overspreading the area late tonight. The way this upper ridging
builds with moisture transport will promote a pattern with low
stratus, fog and drizzle - especially with a low sun angle.
Chances for drizzle and light showers peak Saturday afternoon
and linger into the evening, especially south of US Highway 2.
The expected cloud cover continues to lower confidence in
exactly how warm temperatures get over the next few days. With
at least partial sun, temperatures could soar well into the 60s
on Sunday.

...Rain Event Monday/Tuesday...

Getting into early to mid next week, ensemble guidance is mostly
in agreement on a persistent deformation band of rain as an
upper shortwave trough in the Southwest translates into the
Central Plains. While the best forcing looks to remain south of
our area, there could be enough influence from this feature to
bring the next round of light to moderate rain into the
forecast, heavily favoring the southern zones. A few ensemble
members keep Grand Forks and points north mostly dry given a further
south storm track. Monday-Tuesday Night (48 hour) probabilities
for at least a half inch of rainfall range from around 80% in
Fergus Falls down to 40% for Langdon at this time. A lack of
cold air behind the system results in near zero chance for
frozen precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions should prevail until around 12Z with mostly
broken mid level clouds. Moisture advects into the area with
low stratus developing Saturday from south to north, widespread
MVFR with areas of IFR ceilings likely by 18Z. Rain chances
increase mainly in southeast ND and west central MN during the
day Saturday, but chances remain low (under 30%) at KFAR and
KBJI before 18Z. A weak gradient and lighter winds aloft will
resulting in mainly light east to southeast winds prevailing
through the TAF period (10 kts or less).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Zanker
AVIATION...Zanker