237
FXUS63 KFGF 310951
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry mix continues to transition to light snow this morning.
  Visibility could be reduced at times to near 1 mile as north
  winds increase and combine with falling snow. Accumulations
  will range from a dusting to just under 2 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

...Synopsis...

Persistent northwest H5 flow continues across the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest through the remainder of the week. A sharp thermal
gradient exists along a baroclinic zone that stretches from central
Alberta, southeast into northern Wisconsin. Shortwaves will continue
to traverse the flow pattern, bringing regular chances for light
snow and/or wintry mix today through the weekend. Ensembles show
strong agreement with regards to the pattern, but disagree about the
timing of individual waves traversing the pattern. A strong Hudson
Bay low will continue to feed cold air into the large scale pattern,
thus supporting the continuation of sharp thermal gradients across
the area. Moisture availability depends on the intermittent
convergence of Pacific moisture, streaming into the Northern US
Rockies and into the Northern Plains. Large scale moisture advection
is generally not well supported in this scenario, thus any systems
bringing snow to the area will continue to favor lower snowfall
totals. With regards to temperatures, large swings in temps are
likely to continue, with much warmer air to our south and very cold
air situated along and north of the baroclinic zone.

...Light Snow Continues This Morning...

Snow continues to fall across portions of eastern North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota this morning. The heaviest bands are supported
along an area of weak fgen, stretching from central Cavalier County
southeastward through the central Red River Valley and into
Minnesota. Snowfall rates have been generally light to moderate;
however, impacts overnight have been amplified by antecedent
freezing drizzle. Visibility has been ranging from 1 to 2 miles
where snow is the heaviest. Most of the heavier precip is expected
to move to the southeast by mid to late morning, with lingering
flurries and patchy blowing snow this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

FZDZ transitions to -SN over the next few hours, with
visibilities dropping further from MVFR to IFR as this
transition occurs. Snow will continue overnight into early
Wednesday morning, ending from northwest to southeast mid
morning into the afternoon. Ceilings will remain stuck at
MVFR/IFR levels through Wednesday morning, then slowly improve.
All TAF sites will be back into VFR by the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     NDZ007-008-015-016-026-027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Rafferty