437
FXUS63 KFGF 280356
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is potential for hazardous wind chills each overnight
  into morning through Saturday between 30 to 40 below zero.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Widespread below zero temperatures continue this evening with
wind chills remaining the only impact. Light precipitation in
the far west is possible but of a very low probability and with
a reasonable worst case scenario of hardly any impacts. As such,
the forecast remains on track this evening with no changes to
the forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

With the surface high overhead of us right now, impacts are
limited to the hazardous wind chills expected overnight across
northwest Minnesota and portions of northeast North Dakota.
Expect lows tonight to generally be between -5 and -15, with the
coldest spots in the aforementioned Cold Weather Advisory areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

...Synopsis...

Expansive and well established upper troughing continues to
dominate the eastern half of the CONUS, with a well modified
arctic air mass into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Surface high pressure currently centered over the western
Dakotas, with generally weak pressure gradient eastern Dakotas
and Minnesota.

Still, just enough of a lingering breeze and temperatures
dipping into the teens below zero will contribute toward
hazardous wind chills in northeast ND and portions of northwest
MN. More details below on potential for hazardous cold. Despite
having temperatures trended warmer compared to last weekend,
below average temperatures will persist through the rest of the
work week.

Flow aloft remains generally northwesterly through the rest of this
week, although with some influence of relatively milder
temperatures aloft emanating out of the Canadian High Plains as
compact upper ridging attempts to develop over the Canadian
Rockies toward the end of the week. Within this flow, one or
more shortwave troughs may influence our area with periods of
light snow and perhaps some gusty winds, although chance for
light snow from these are more favored toward western and
central Dakotas. There is a lobe of energy moving through the
region around Thursday/Friday, but overall lacking in moisture.
Influence from this wave may be felt more in the way of a back-
door-type cold front reinforcing arctic air mass currently in
place.

Heading into the weekend, ensemble guidance suggests
less influence from upper troughing to our east, in place of
upper ridging and/or zonal flow aloft from the west. This would
promote a further warming trend in temperatures to around
average or perhaps even above average temps. This also brings
additional opportunities for progressive shortwave troughs to
bring light winter precipitation. One such wave may traverse
through the Northern Plains into Upper Midwest around
Sunday/Monday. Details on potential for impacts remains
uncertain. However, at this time the potential for widespread,
significant hazardous weather from this is low, less than 10%.

...Potentially hazardous wind chills this week...

Each overnight and morning period will hold some potential for
seeing wind chills between 30 to 40 below zero this week through
Saturday.

Modified arctic air mass will linger of the area
through this time before influence from milder air mass
originating from the Pacific overspreads our region around
Sunday. Temperatures each night will be subzero, with teens
below zero favored more into the Devils Lake basin and along and
just east of the Red River Valley in Minnesota.

This includes tonight into Wednesday morning where chances for
these hazardous wind chills is greater than 80% in these same
locations. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for this.

Otherwise, the chance for these wind chills is around 50%
Wednesday overnight into Thursday, with perhaps higher chance
closer to 70% Thursday overnight and Friday as a less modified
arctic air masses settles into the region bringing better chance
for temperatures teens to twenties below zero.

Uncertainties mainly stem from subtle differences in wind speed
as well as cloud cover that may limit how cold temperatures
get.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with light winds below 12 knots
sustained. As such, aviation impacts will remain low. Winds will
slowly shift to a 330-350 direction tomorrow afternoon before
becoming light and variable towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006>008-
     015-026-054.
MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001-002-
     004-005-007-008-013>015-022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux