302
FXUS63 KFGF 262333
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
533 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers, blowing and drifting snow in northeast North
  Dakota, the Red River Valley, and northwest Minnesota this
  afternoon into evening. Sudden and sharp reductions in
  visibility are expected, impacting travel conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

While poor conditions are becomeing much more scattered per
webcams and mesonet obs there remains enoigh ongoing impacts too
keep the winter weather advisory in effect at leasat for the
time being.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

...Synopsis...

Expansive and well established upper troughing continues to
dominate the eastern half of the CONUS, with a well modified
arctic air mass into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Within this flow a progressive shortwave trough is trekking
through ND and MN today. This shortwave trough is sweeping a
cold front through our area, bringing gusty northwest winds and
snow showers. This is leading to areas of blowing and drifting
snow, and more importantly sudden and sharply reduced visibility
within portions of northeast ND, the Red River Valley, and into
northwest MN. This will impact travel conditions this afternoon
and evening (more details below).

Lingering breezy winds and temperatures dipping into the teens
below zero will contribute toward hazardous wind chills into
the low 30s below zero for the Devils Lake basin in northeast
North Dakota. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for these
wind chills Tuesday morning. Despite having temperatures
trended warmer compared to last weekend, below average
temperatures will persist through the rest of the work week.
There will be additional opportunities for conditions meeting
cold weather advisory criteria between -30F and -40F every
evening/early morning through at least Thursday.

Flow aloft remains generally northwesterly this week, although
with some influence of relatively milder temperatures aloft
emanating out of the Canadian High Plains as compact upper
ridging attempts to develop over the Canadian Rockies. Within
this flow, one or more shortwave troughs may influence our area
with periods of light snow and perhaps some gusty winds,
although confidence is not high in which wave may bring these
conditions, if any. Heading into the weekend, ensemble guidance
suggests less influence from upper troughing to our east, in
place of upper ridging and/or zonal flow aloft from the west.
This would promote a further warming trend in temperatures to
around average or perhaps even above average temps.

...Travel impacts this afternoon into evening...

Blowing snow and snow showers with heavy snow rates are
impacting portions of northeast North Dakota, the Red River
Valley, and Minnesota this afternoon behind a cold front passing
through the region. This is impacting travel conditions with
sharp and sudden reductions in visibility, at times to whiteouts
in the open country under heavy snow showers. Horizontal
convective roll (HCR) clouds are viewable on satellite imagery
(nicely on Blowing Snow RGB). These HCRs are housing heavy snow
rates creating brief instances of near blizzard conditions, even
in urban and sheltered areas. Outside of HCRs, blowing snow and
drifting snow are more constrained to open country locations in
the aforementioned locations, with visibility not as sharply
reduced as within the HCRs and more within the half mile to one
mile range outside HCRs.

These conditions are forecast to remain in place within these
areas through the afternoon, and into the evening. There is
uncertainty in how persistent/widespread these conditions will
be into this evening. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
for these sharp and sudden reductions in visibility.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Snow showers continuing to bring MVFR to IFR conditions across
the region the next several hours with MVFR to VFR becoming more
common as snow showers really begin to wane in coverage by
midnight. Keeping a TEMPO at most sites for the next 4 hours to
account for the expected occasional lower CIGS and VIS from 1/4
to 1SM through about 10pm. Winds not changing direction much
but will drop off into the 15kt range shortly after sunrise
tuesday with weakening cold air advection and gusts ending
overall. Tuesday should be a more better day for aviation but
still some lingering MVFR potentially for any earlier
takeoffs/landings prior to 15z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for
     NDZ006>008-015-016-027-054.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-029-054.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon CST Tuesday for NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for
     MNZ001-002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT