191
FXUS63 KFGF 120046
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
646 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No impactful weather is expected through the end of this week.
  Well above average temperatures late this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Wind gusts have dropped off with sunset and low level
decoupling, and sustained winds 10-20 mph should prevail through
the rest of the night. Besides several periods of passing mid to
high level clouds the trend should be for mostly clear skies to
prevail. Besides near term adjustments to reflect the current
sky trends forecast is generally on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...Synopsis...

Broad northwest flow aloft is viewable on water vapor imagery
over the NOrthern Plains and Upper Midwest, with an embedded
shortwave trough moving through ON into MN and western Great
Lakes region. Upper ridging continues to build over the Pacific
Northwest. This upper ridge will continue to build eastward into
the Northern Plains, bringing well above average temperatures
late this week. This includes 60s in the forecast on Friday.

The ridging will be rather progressive with decreasing heights
aloft by Friday and Saturday as an upper trough slides eastward
across the souther tier of Canada. This will promote gusty winds
Friday and Saturday as well, with a cold frontal passage
forecast around Saturday. Will have to keep an eye on the RH
forecast Friday and Saturday given warm and windy conditions, as
this may have implications on fire weather conditions. At this
time, RH is forecast to remain above 35 percent, but admittedly
a low confidence forecast given these types of air masses and
synoptic setups can mislead RH from dropping as low as they tend
to go.

While most ensemble guidance favors this frontal passage to be
dry, there is still a subset of ensemble guidance that brings
brief period of light precipitation associated with the frontal
passage Saturday. This includes potential for light wintry
precipitation, although will be dependent upon temperatures
decreasing fast enough overnight to coincide with precip.
Northwest Minnesota near Lake of the Woods region currently
holds relatively highest chance of this occurring (20%).

Into next week, ensemble guidance suggests potential for more
active precipitation pattern as flow aloft is quasi-zonal and/or
southwesterly aloft, along with more seasonable temperatures.
This however is low confidence forecast with ensembles deviating
in synoptic features and evolution.

...Aurora viewing forecast tonight and Wednesday night...

There is an increased chance for auroral activity tonight
through Wednesday night, potentially beyond.

Clouds within Minnesota look to diminish by tonight, ushering in
clear skies region-wide tonight. Winds will also lessen tonight
compared to this afternoon, although a lingering breeze 10-20
mph is forecast, highest in eastern ND near the western edge of
the Red River Valley. Moon rise tonight is 10 PM, with 58%
illumination during its waning gibbous phase. This will allow
for generally favorable viewing conditions for potential aurora
viewing tonight. Temperatures tonight into the 30s and lingering
breeze combine to keep wind chills in the low to mid 20s,
making for brisk conditions for those venturing out tonight.

Cloud cover trends upward Wednesday night, mostly mid to upper
level clouds. Winds will be light, less than 10 mph.
Temperatures into the 30s and 20s will continue for chilly
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
across eastern ND, and across northwest MN now that stratus and
shifted/cleared over KBJI. Surface high pressure just to the
west will eventually move east over our CWA late Wednesday,
however before that weakening gradient will remain in place
supporting west-northwest winds (280-300) in the 8-14kt range
and gusts once again during the late morning/early afternoon
period Wednesday. There is a lingering 30-40kt low level jet
across the region which may result in low level wind shear this
evening and possibly into the overnight period. The general
trend will before this to weaken and shift out of our region
decreasing the potential for impacts by Wednesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR