096
FXUS63 KFGF 122342
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
642 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions are forecast within the Red River Valley and
  Devils Lake basin. Strong winds up to 50 mph linger in the
  Devils Lake basin through tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Wind gusts are starting to fall off in the Red River Valley and
points to the east, where the wind advisory is on track to end
at 8 PM. Higher gusts of 45 to 50 mph remain prevalent in the
Devils Lake Basin, where the wind advisory goes until 4 AM.
Overall, headline timing looks reasonable with no changes
expected. A few showers are also occuring along the front, but
only minor additional rainfall amounts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...Synopsis...

Seasonably strong and progressive shortwave trough is moving
through the Northern High Plains into southern Canadian Prairie
Provinces. This is continuing strong winds both ahead and behind
of an accompanying cold front sweeping west to east across the
Dakotas, and eventually into Minnesota. Near the front later
this afternoon into early evening, scattered showers and perhaps
a isolated thunderstorms are forecast to form along the front,
particularly into Minnesota.

As the shortwave trough departs, a broader longwave trough
deepens over the West Coast along with upper ridging into the
Northern Plains early next week. Upper ridge axis builds into
the area from southeast to northwest. This will serve to keep
cooler air mass behind today`s cold front to linger over the
region while modifying, keeping temperatures near average.
Efficient radiational cooling Monday night/Tuesday morning will
promote temperatures to dip well into the 20s across the region.

Ensemble guidance suggests entrance region jet dynamics east of
the upper ridge axis will help bring a low chance for showers
into the Dakotas around Tuesday, favoring more south of Highway
2 corridor.

Into mid and late week, the aforementioned longwave trough
breaks east into the central CONUS. This will reintroduce warmer
than average temperatures along with chance for showers and
perhaps thunderstorms. At this time, the Thursday to Friday
timeframe hold relatively best chances for precipitation. At
this time, there is not a signal for organized strong to severe
storm potential with this system, although predictability into
this timeframe decreases dramatically.

...Strong winds today/tonight...

Now that this morning`s very strong low level jet and
accompanying strong gusts have pushed into Minnesota while also
waning, attention now turns to post-frontal winds behind the
cold front that will sweep through the region from west to east
this afternoon. Moderate to strong cold air advection and
increasing pressure gradient will drive strong westerly wind
gusts this afternoon into evening. This is particularly true in
the Devils Lake basin where gusts to 50 mph are forecast to
locally linger well into tonight. There is a 10% chance isolated
gusts could reach into the 50-60 mph before midnight.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Ceilings and wind gusts remain the primary aviation hazards
through the overnight period. Winds have switched to the west as
of this evening at all terminals except KBJI, where they will in
the next couple of hours. These westerly winds will remain
gusty, albeit in a decreasing trend, through Monday morning.
Gusts should finally taper off by mid afternoon Monday.
Ceilings will also be on a generally improving trend, starting
at MVFR, rising overnight to VFR at all TAF sites. Any
forecasted precipitation will fall in the next 6 hours, with
PROB30s or TEMPOs at all sites except KDVL to account for this.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-
     027>030-038-039-053.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
     026-054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Rafferty