818
FXUS63 KFGF 122112
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
412 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a high chance for wetting rainfall Monday across the
  region which could impact outdoor activities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...Synopsis...

Fall-like pattern is firmly entrenched into the region behind
yesterday`s cold front and today`s continued weak cold air
advection. Aloft, a zonal jet moves through offering some weak
forcing for ascent in southeast ND, bringing a low chance for a
band of light rain to this area. However, there is dry air it
will need to overcome, and thus expecting not much rainfall from
this - less than two tenths of an inch.

Surface high pressure into the region Sunday will keep
conditions pleasant and fall-like with high temperatures again
in the 60s, along with ample sunshine and light winds.

A stronger upper shortwave trough turning closed low moves
through the northern High Plains into south-central Canada on
Monday. This will bring a plume of moisture and forcing as it
approaches the region to the majority of the Dakotas and
Minnesota. This will also bring gusty winds both ahead and
behind the wave - highest at least 40 mph likely within eastern
ND into the Red River Valley.

Looking into mid to late next week, ensemble`s evolution of the
upper pattern shows signs of upper ridging, indicating at
temperature trend that may gradually increase. However, the lack
of more robust upper ridging means we should not see a drastic
increased trend in temperatures, likely keeping them closer to
average to slightly above average.

...High chance for wetting rainfall...

All guidance agrees in a leading plume of moisture and lift
overspreading our entire region on Monday, lending toward the
thought of widespread stratiform rainfall for majority of the
area. Within this plume will also likely be weak instability,
offering convective elements to percolate within the widespread
stratiform rainfall. This should bring at least a wetting
rainfall to majority of the region (at least a couple of tenths
of an inch).

However, a recent trend in the heart of synoptic forcing via
the deformation zone/center of vorticity to keep it within
Canada means this may be the only opportunity for widespread
rainfall, while also limiting higher end amounts. While there is
a scenario that offers rainfall amounts more than 1 inch, they
will likely be more spotty/isolated due to convective elements
needed, if it occurs in our area at all.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period. Afternoon
cumulus are in the 4-5kft before diminishing around sunset. Breezy
northwest winds around 20kt should diminish less than 7kt
between 00Z-02Z. The chance for fog tonight/Sun AM is very low
due to expectation of lingering mid to upper altitude clouds as
well as most locations holding on to a light wind around 5kt.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ