859
FXUS63 KFGF 210901
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
401 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for strong to severe storms Monday.

- Seasonable weather with scattered rain chances today in
  northwest Minnesota and all areas early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Monitoring development of fog. Ground fog is present and
typically visibility is variable as most of it is low lying over
grassy fields. Did an SPS as potential is there for fog to
expand and lift and affect more areas. High pressure is over
eastern North Dakota at 08z with light winds. Pockets of
stratocu clouds and MVFR to IFR ceilings expanding around
Bemidji to Park Rapids and Detroit Lakes. Only change to pops
was to matchup with BIS and ABR in having upper wave in southern
Saskatchewan and its showers move southeast possibly affecting
parts of SE ND this afternoon. Kept pops as is up around Lake of
the Woods as wave moves southeast thru NW Ontario.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...Synopsis...

NW flow continues to become more amplified the next few days
with increasing ridging across the Rockies and high plains.
Troughing off the Pacific coast looks to move ashore Saturday
and flatten the ridge bringing increasing precipitation chances
through early next week. Ridging then returns for the mid and
late week next week. Could see some strong to severe storms on
Monday/Tuesday next week though there are still a great deal of
unknowns and wont speculate into the potential too much.
Overall seasonal weather with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s
each day and the peak daily heat index generally 80-85 making a
it a comfortable stretch of late summer weather.

- Today

A low centered around Baudette continues to drift east along
the International Border this afternoon with a narrow warm
sector to the south along an ill defined trough with a weak wind
shift from SW to W/NW behind the boundary. MLCAPE of 1000-1500
j/kg and MUCAPE exceeding 2000 j/kg will provide plenty of
buoyancy for storms with Eff shear of 30-35kts at least
supporting an initially organized mode as shear vectors remain
perpendicular to the front. Largely unidirectional shear should
support some splitting of cells and an initial hail threat up
to quarter/ping pongs (1-1.5") before cells grow upscale along
the front and transition to a mainly winds threat. Depending on
the timing of storm initiation the front could already be east
of our area with areas from Bemidji to Fergus Falls and east the
only ones with a realistic chance to see a storm still this
afternoon. Chances for any severe reports within our forecast
area this afternoon are 10% or less. Timing will be from 3 to
6pm for any storms to form in our area before the front works
east. Beyond the marginal chances for severe a second shortwave
will rotate through the NW flow overnight bring more scattered
showers/thunderstorms but chances for more than isolated totals
over 0.10 are minimal so dont expect too much.

- Rain/Severe Chances Early Next Week

The AI ensembles agree strongly on the track of a wave through
the canadian provinces on Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning with
the Euro notably being faster than the GFS (typically the GFS is
more progressive). The Euro also maintains a wider and more
stout northward surge in the warm sector owing to its slightly
more developed low and attendant features. Overall the
expectation is for lee troughing east of the rockies with MUCAPE
in excess of 2000 j/kg to support at least a wind and hail
threat on Monday afternoon/evening. Looks like an event that
will be much more spotty on rain amounts and dependent upon
where thunderstorms track but isolated totals over 1 inch area
certainly possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions for all TAF sites expected to continue except at
KBJI. Models have backed off a bit on stratus and fog development in
that area, but probabilities are still 50 to 70 percent for ceilings
less than 3000 ft. North to northwest winds will continue to drop
overnight, becoming light and variable at a few spots. Northwest
winds will pick up again tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts
expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR