329
FXUS63 KFGF 010458
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1158 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
  overnight tonight, with lightning being the primary hazard.

- Several periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Monday through Friday, bringing better chances for wetting
  rainfall over more of the region.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Tuesday afternoon over the Devils Lake Basin. There are low
  chances for severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas of light rain showers continue to stream into the area
from the southeast, with weak thunderstorms now starting to make
their way into southeast North Dakota. This will continue to be
the case through the overnight, with weak thunderstorms liable
to spread elsewhere in our region, but still low in coverage
(more isolated). Otherwise, light winds and cloudy skies
dominate the forecast tonight into Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging will slowly weaken during the upcoming week, with
the axis of H5 height anomalies drifting eastward. An upper low
develops in eastern Montana as we head into Monday, which will
influence the H5 flow across the Northern Plains. This
translates into increased rain chances as shortwaves traverse
the eastern flank of the H5 low. Weak upper flow prevails all
week, which will serve to keep us in close proximity to this
area of low pressure as it slowly drifts to the northeast
heading into mid week. Shortwaves will continue to propagate
through the Northern Plains, but should be a bit stronger as the
low moves across southern Saskatchewan and into southern
Manitoba late Tuesday into Wednesday. As such, a mention of
strong to severe thunderstorms is justified due to better
forcing and relatively strong instability. Heading into Thursday
and Friday, a number of different scenarios are valid, but will
ultimately depend on how quickly the upper low exits to the
east. Ensemble guidance confirms very low confidence in this
timing, with scenarios including additional thunderstorm
activity across the southern portions of the forecast area.

...Showers and Thunderstorms Today into Next Week...

Today through Monday: Western flank of the upper ridge remains
in place just west of the CWA, but will move slowly east this
evening and overnight. The best chance for isolated storms will
be along an axis that stretches across southeast North Dakota
and west central Minnesota.

Tuesday-Friday: Upper ridging gradually weakens through the
week, with upper flow turning nearly zonal by mid week.
Shortwave activity will allow for a mention of thunderstorms
nearly each day, with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms
Tuesday into Wednesday. Looking at model soundings Tuesday
afternoon, storm mode looks to start with supercells in central
North Dakota, then transition to more of a hybrid cluster setup
as it moves into eastern North Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to develop through tonight
from SW to NE.There is a chance these lowered ceilings linger at
some sites through the morning. Showers will become more
widespread during that time as well. Winds remaining 5-10kts
from the SE through the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT/CJ