919
FXUS63 KFGF 121052
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
452 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for northeast North Dakota
  through mid morning today. Dense fog will make travel
  conditions hazardous.

- Above average temperatures continue through early next week.
  This will continue to erode the snowpack, although no
  hydrological impacts are anticipated at this time.

- The next chance for a more active precipitation pattern will
  be mid to late next week, but confidence in winter impacts is
  low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 449 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Fog remains in northeast ND but it is much more patchy than at
06z. But where fog is getting vsbys lower than 1/4SM from
Cooperstown ND area up along west edge of the RRV to Cavalier.
Also a patch around Cando and likely north of Devils Lake. So
will maintain advisory as is as not enough of the area is fog
free to cancel it.


UPDATE
Issued at 739 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Observations indicate dew point depressions approaching zero and
cameras across northeast North Dakota show dense fog ongoing, so
we`ve decided to issue a Dense Fog Advisory as it is unlikely to
see much improvement until sunrise. There is the potential for
further expansion, particularly south where dew point
depressions are 0-3F, so we`ll be keeping an eye on things if we
need further expansion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

...Synopsis...

Split flow aloft continues with the southerly upper low over
the west coast and the northern branch bringing northwest flow
to the Northern Plains. A weak shortwave currently over southern
Saskatchewan will dig southeastward into MN tonight, but no
precipitation is expected. Light south to southeasterly winds
ahead of a very weak surface trough will bring some patchy fog
chances again overnight. Little change in the general surface
pattern as we head into tomorrow and Friday, although heights
will come up and then flow will become more zonal as we head
into the weekend. The upper flow starts to become more
southwesterly as we head into next week. Models bring a strong
lead trough out into the Plains as early as Tuesday, but differ
on how they handle that system as well as the western CONUS
trough on Wednesday.

...Warm temperatures through rest of the week and into the
weekend...

Temperatures already above seasonal averages today, and the
upper pattern as well as the ECMWF EFI continues to show a
signal for warmth. NBM probabilities have over 90 percent for
temperatures above 40 degrees for the end of the week and into
the weekend, and there is a 30 percent chance for above 50 near
the SD border on Friday. This will decrease the snow across the
region, and the NWC`s days 4-6 ice timing outlook has some "slow
melt" creeping into the far southern Red River Valley. However,
with the slow nature of any melt and lower than average snow
totals so far this year, not expecting much in the way of river
responses quite yet.

...More active pattern next week...

There is decent agreement on the upper flow becoming more
southwesterly by next week, although differences in the details.
Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS runs bring out a lead
shortwave on Tuesday but differ on how they take it out of the
region on Wednesday. An entire cluster of 25 percent of the
grand ensemble members have upper ridging holding in place over
the Plains for Tuesday/Wednesday while the main trough is still
out over the west coast. Even if there was agreement on timing,
the recent and continued warmer than average temps will make
precip type a headache to figure out. There is the possibility
of both rain and snow, and the ECMWF ensemble even shows some
chances for sleet or freezing rain at some of the more northern
locations. With the high levels of uncertainty, will hold off on
any messaging for the middle of next week for the moment, but
keep a close eye on trends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Fog will be the aviation impact of the TAF period. Fog in
northeast North Dakota, while in and out, should remain through
the overnight hours through at least 12z. VLIFR visibilities
with intermittent IFR/MVFR can be expected to continue at
DVL/GFK. The main question is how far things expand. Weak
southerly winds are contributing to at least some drier air
getting in which may cause improvements on the edges of the
current fog deck. We may see expansion further towards TVF or
FAR but observations indicate fairly large dew point depressions
so the expectation is for this to not make it to these sites.

We should see improvements to VFR conditions, however where fog
resides after sunrise, we may see ceilings become IFR/LIFR while
surface visibilities improve similar to what we saw today.
Predictability in this is low due to questions of where the fog
will even be by then. There is a strong signal for additional
fog to develop after 00z, particularly in northwest Minnesota,
however predictability in severity and expanse is low, so it
was not added to this TAF issuance.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ006>008-
     015-016-026>030-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux