796
FXUS63 KFGF 081153
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
653 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Level 1 out of 5 risk Thursday overnight for the Devils Lake
  basin. Isolated severe storms possible.

- Dangerous heat this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The higher end scenerio of severe storms and very heavy rainfall
overnight did not occur. That is a good thing. Flood watch was
cancelled early. A few showers yet around SE ND into WC MN early
this morning, otherwise a dry day today with mix of cloud and
sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...Synopsis...

Ensembles are in good agreement with the large scale pattern
over the next 7 days, depicting the current zonal flow to
transition into a sort of omega block pattern with ridging
across the central CONUS. Details less certain of course.

...Severe and Flash Flood Potential...

Water vapor imagery indicates an upper level trough across
Montana slowly propagating eastward. As this feature continue to
propagate eastward this evening, anticipate a strong 850mb jet
to develop with nose of this feature into the southern Red River
Valley. Currently, showers are developing along a 700mb boundary
across central North Dakota, with additional activity associated
with an MCV across the southern RRV and west central Minnesota.
This activity will continue eastward, although impacts will be
minimal. Later this evening, the 850mb front will shift north as
the low level jet increases. Surface instability will remain
across South Dakota, but with instability along the elevated
front and stronger warm air advection there is a very high
chance for elevated thunderstorms along and south of I-94/Hwy10.

Severe Potential...Freezing levels are near 15 Kft, but given
the elevated nature of the storms potential exists for near
severe to severe hail given MUCAPE near 2000 J/Kg and effective
shear near 50 knots. Potential also exists for severe wind given
the anticipated strong low level bulk shear, even with the
storm being elevated. The elevated nature of the storms will
limit severe potential, but will not eliminate severe potential.

Excessive rainfall/flash flood potential...Anticipate heavy
rainfall rates given PWATS near 1.75 inches along with soundings
indicating efficient rainfall rate processes (plus high freezing
level). Given the west to east position of the elevated front,
potential also exists for training storms. CAM guidance
indicating mean rainfall 1-2 inches with max rainfall near 5
inches. Given all of this, plus the rain that fell yesterday
(1-2 inches) across west central Minnesota, will issue a flood
watch for flash flood potential (10p-7a).

...Dangerous Heat...

As the ridging builds into the weekend, anticipate max
temperatures 95F-100F (maybe a bit warmer) across much of the
region Saturday through Monday. Heat risk, wet bulb globe temp,
and heat index values all indicate a dangerous heat episode.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A mix bag of sky cover out there this morning predominately mix
of high and mid clouds and that is the trend today before
clearing takes hold later today and especially tonight. Light
winds north to 10 kts today and then near calm tonight. May have
some local fog tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...Riddle